MAKER'S MARKET DOSSIER

Issue #4: 12.5.2024

❤️🫦AMUSE BOUCHE …

The market’s got that look in its eye—the one that says trouble’s brewing, and nobody’s leaving until the tab is settled. Bitcoin blows past $100K, with a surprise kicker. And as the French government implodes, bonds barely blink. Chaos, it turns out, is bullish when it’s predictably French. Gold’s nursing a drink in the corner, side-eyeing the dollar and waiting for Friday’s payroll report to either light its fire or snuff it out.

Oil paces back and forth, muttering about OPEC and supply. North Korea and Russia are shaking hands like old mob bosses cutting a deal, as Europe cracks under the weight of its own indecision. This isn’t just a market—it’s a pressure cooker.

Every move this week feels like a hustle.

MARKET MOOD – Cryptophoria

🐉 Markets don’t drift—they wrestle. Right now, the match is a deadlock: Bitcoin’s $100K breakthrough pulls capital into its gravity, while Europe’s political chaos whispers danger to anyone who’ll listen. The U.S. sits at the center of the ring, clutching its labor data like a referee unsure which side to call.

₿ Sentiment isn’t just split—it’s fractured. The crypto market is euphoric, financial media buzzes with superlatives, and yet, in the corners of the room, Mt. Gox creditors are lining up to cash out billions of long-frozen BTC.

🇫🇷 Across the Atlantic, French bonds shrug off their country’s government collapse because, apparently, dysfunction is bullish if it’s predictable. And in the background, the Federal Reserve plays the slowest game of musical chairs you’ve ever seen, inching closer to a decision no one is ready to bet on.

🛢️🥇 Amid the chaos, you’d think commodities would show conviction. Oil, gold, and silver, the old safe havens, seem unsure whether to follow crypto’s lead or stay in the corner with the cautious kids. This isn’t a market driven by certainty; it’s a market looking for a story compelling enough to buy into.

🔥 GEOPOLITICAL RISKS are keeping sentiment in check but lack the immediacy to trigger a flight to safety. The yen (+0.4%) sees minor gains, while gold (-1%) softens, signaling uncertainty rather than outright fear.

• Europe: The collapse of French PM Barnier’s government rattled bonds briefly before a quick recovery suggested markets view the turmoil as a non-event. Meanwhile, Germany’s coalition cracks deepen concerns for Eurozone cohesion.
• Middle East: Ongoing U.S.-led Gaza ceasefire talks face pressure as Russia ramps up strikes in Syria. Energy markets remain poised for disruptions in key oil supply corridors like the Strait of Hormuz.
• Asia: North Korea and Russia formalize a strategic partnership, creating fresh security concerns for the region.

📊 A mixed bag of MACROECONOMIC DATA leaves markets in limbo, amplifying the importance of upcoming employment and inflation figures for directional clarity.

• 🇺🇸 U.S. Employment: Jobless claims rose to 224,000, a minor uptick that adds caution ahead of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. Markets expect 200K+ new jobs, a sharp turnaround from October’s meager 12K.
• 🇪🇺 Eurozone Retail Sales: Fell (-0.5% MoM), underperforming expectations and bolstering the case for further ECB rate cuts next week.
• 🇦🇺 Australia: Household spending surged (+2.8% YoY vs. +2.2% expected), with robust trade data nudging the AUD higher.

🌏📉 GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS show exhaustion as they await stronger catalysts, with tomorrow’s U.S. labor report looming large.

• 🇺🇸 U.S.: The Dow (-0.6%) led declines, weighed down by materials stocks, while the Nasdaq flirted with gains before succumbing to profit-taking. Labor market concerns have cooled bullish momentum.
• 🇪🇺 Europe: France’s CAC shrugged off political drama, climbing as investors looked past Barnier’s resignation. German equities remain flat amidst coalition uncertainty.
• 🇯🇵 Asia: Japan’s Nikkei swung between gains and losses, reflecting a tug-of-war between BoJ mixed signals and broader global cues.

🛢️🥇 COMMODITIES reflect neutral sentiment, awaiting clear direction from economic data and geopolitical developments.

• Oil: WTI crude remains range-bound ($66.50-$72.40), with bearish sentiment driven by rising U.S. supply and OPEC+ indecision.
• Precious Metals: Gold (-1%) and silver (-0.4%) dip as the dollar strengthens and inflation expectations cool.

📅 LOOKING AHEAD, All eyes are on tomorrow’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, OPEC+ output adjustments, and the ECB’s rate decision. Expect sharper sentiment divergence as these events clarify the economic and geopolitical landscape.

💨 TRADE WINDS

• 🌏 Can Asia lead a trade resurgence by shifting to consumption while sustaining regional supply chains?
• 🌍 Will Europe overcome political fragmentation to act cohesively on energy and fiscal reforms?
• 🌎 Can the Americas leverage regulatory shifts and energy independence to strengthen their role in emerging markets?

🔄 Political instability in Europe, U.S.-China tensions, and North Korea-Russia partnerships disrupt global trade flows. Central banks and governments are recalibrating policies to balance domestic priorities with global trade interdependencies. As discussed in Issue N of the DOSSIER, efforts to secure semiconductor supply chains and promote digital assets signal a tech-driven reshaping of global commerce.

🦠 As the global economy continues its post-pandemic transformation, the interconnected threads of trade, geopolitics, and technology are shifting in unprecedented ways. Long-standing trade paradigms are being rewritten amid evolving regional priorities, geopolitical tensions, and technological revolutions.

🌏 In Asia, the transition from export-led growth to domestic consumption in China could reshape global commodity markets, while Japan faces challenges from yen appreciation. Can Japanese exporters withstand the tension without requiring further BoJ intervention? How will China’s domestic consumption shift influence global commodity exporters?

1. 🇨🇳 China’s Shift to Consumption: Ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference, China’s state media signaled a pivot from export-driven growth to boosting domestic consumption. This move could reduce global demand for industrial commodities, reshaping global supply chains.
2. 🇯🇵 Japan’s Monetary Tightrope: The BoJ’s Nakamura hinted at rate hikes if warranted by data, causing yen appreciation and potential challenges for exporters.
3. 🇰🇵 🇷🇺 North Korea-Russia Partnership: A newly signed treaty intensifies regional security concerns, potentially disrupting trade and investment flows.

🧐 Suggested Charts and Rationales

• CNY/USD vs. Industrial Commodity Prices: Correlation between China’s demand pivot and global commodity price movements.
• USD/JPY vs. Nikkei 225: Analyzing yen strength’s impact on Japan’s equity market, especially export-heavy industries.

🌍 Europe is caught in a web of its own spinning. How will energy shortages and political instability shape its medium-term supply and demand? Fragmented governance is hindering its ability to act cohesively, for better or worse. Can the bloc navigate trade conflicts with China, or will it jeopardize its own economic recovery … again?

1. 🇫🇷 French Political Crisis: The fall of PM Barnier’s government destabilized markets temporarily, though French bonds recovered. The crisis raises concerns about fiscal policy execution in the Eurozone.
2. 🇩🇪 Energy Vulnerabilities: Winter energy demand, coupled with governance challenges in France and Germany, exposes weaknesses in the EU’s energy infrastructure.
3. 🇪🇺 Trade Tensions with China: The EU’s proposed tariffs on Chinese titanium dioxide have drawn strong objections, threatening to exacerbate trade frictions.

🧐 Suggested Charts and Rationales

• 🇷🇺 French Bond Yields vs. EUR/USD: Assessing the financial implications of political instability in France.
• 𐂕 EU Natural Gas Prices vs. German Industrial Output: Exploring energy costs’ impact on Europe’s manufacturing sector.

🌎 Meanwhile, in the Americas, the U.S. seeks to capitalize on pro-crypto regulation and energy independence, potentially reshaping its global economic leadership.

1. 🇺🇸 U.S. Regulatory Shifts: President-elect Trump’s pro-crypto policies, including the nomination of SEC head Paul Atkins, have boosted market optimism and encouraged blockchain-related investment.
2. ⚡️ Energy Policy Pivot: Plans for “drill-baby-drill” energy independence threaten global oil prices while strengthening U.S. dominance in energy exports.
3. 📱 Reshoring Initiatives: TSMC and Nvidia’s discussions on semiconductor production in Arizona reflect growing momentum for U.S.-based manufacturing.

🧐 Suggested Charts and Rationales

• 🛢️ WTI Crude Oil Prices vs. U.S. Energy Exports: Evaluating the potential impact of increased U.S. output on global energy markets.
• ₿ BTC/USD vs. NASDAQ-100: Analyzing correlations between crypto market optimism and tech sector performance.

❓ Questions

• 🍊 How will Trump’s regulatory and energy policies reshape U.S. relations with emerging markets?
• 📱 Can reshoring semiconductor production significantly enhance supply chain resilience?
• 🏭 Will U.S. energy dominance conflict with global decarbonization efforts, or create new opportunities in emerging markets?

⛯ SECTOR SPOTLIGHT – Altcoin Season

🐉 Bitcoin popping $100K is the financial equivalent of a Godzilla sighting. It doesn’t tiptoe in—it stomps. The market reacts like panicked Tokyo citizens: running every which way, tripping balls to the walls over their shoelaces and howling laser-eyed predictions about $124K by New Year’s Eve.

🌋 And just when you thought it was safe to bet the house, Mt. Gox’s long-dormant wallets cracked their knuckles and said, “Remember me? Hold my beer.” This was the literal granddaddy of crypto scandals—a hack, a crash, and 200,000 BTC frozen in time like Walt Disney’s head. Fast forward a decade, and creditors are finally cashing out, moving 27,000 BTC worth $2.7 billion onto exchanges.

🌊 This isn’t a gentle drizzle; it’s a flash flood of liquidity.

🔊 The timing couldn’t be better—or worse, depending on your position. Bitcoin’s $100K party may have been gate-crashed by a horde of Mt. Gox creditors, many of whom aren’t looking to HODL—they’re looking to sell. Every whale splash sends ripples through the market, and the funding rates are spiking like bad tequila. Leveraged longs beware: one misstep and you’re swimming without a life vest.

🏃🏻♂️➡️ Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA) isn’t just along for the Bitcoin ride—it’s betting the farm on a Mad Dash. With an $850 million convertible note offering, MARA is bulking up reserves and investing in eco-friendly mining rigs. That’s right, Bitcoin mining is suddenly trying to wear the ESG halo. But let’s not kid ourselves—this is crypto mining, not a solar farm. If Bitcoin stumbles below $100K, MARA’s stock could look less like a moonshot and more like a rocket that forgot to fuel up.

🚀 Bitcoin’s gravitational pull is dragging altcoins into season.

• ⓧ 🄷 XRP and HBAR : The “American Made” cryptos look well positioned to benefit from a new sheriff in town. XRP is uncoiling and so far holding above $2.20, while HBAR is gaining phenomenally nearly every day, daring onlookers to buy a ticket.
• 🎺 JasmyCoin (JASMY): Jasmy surged 187% in a month, powered by whale buys in late October, followed by influencer mania. Resistance at $0.05 looms, and the smart money knows when to take some profit.
• ⚡️ AMP: Up 330% from its lows, AMP is riding a golden cross like Evel Knievel at the edge of Snake River Canyon. Whales are fueling this rally, too, so don’t blink—volatility here is as stable as a Jenga tower in an earthquake. 🎢 Bitcoin at $100K feels like the peak of the rollercoaster. The view’s amazing, but the tracks ahead look suspiciously downhill. The Mt. Gox wallet movements are the market’s wake-up call: history doesn’t just rhyme—it roars with a vengeance. Meanwhile, the altcoins are doing the work of stunt doubles—literally on fire while the big star takes a break.

🎲 RISK RADAR – Uncertainty is the Sharpest Edge

🐤 The market loves to play chicken with your nerves. While the uninitiated tremble at wild swings, the pros know the truth: volatility isn’t a threat, it’s an invitation. This week, that invitation is embossed with catalysts – from the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report to crypto aftershocks and gold’s eternal tug-of-war with the dollar. Forget the adage that the calm precedes the storm. Nowadays, the storm is the calm, and vice versa. You don’t weather it – you ride it.

🌊 Volatility isn’t noise; it’s the siren song for traders who fly Delta-neutral, without preference for up or down.

📈📉 Nonfarm Payrolls: The Market’s Kickstarter

📅 Friday, 8:30 AM ET, is your moment of truth. Nonfarm Payrolls don’t just reveal the health of the U.S. labor market – they’re the lodestar for Fed policy and bond traders alike. Every data point in the report (headline jobs added, unemployment rate, and wage growth) is a chess piece, and every move dictates how markets recalibrate. Here’s the lay of the land:

• Headline Number: Expectation drives reaction. The forecast? 180K. Surprises – higher or lower – will ripple through equities, bonds, and forex.
• Wage Growth: This sneaky variable often drives inflation expectations. A hotter-than-expected print will have traders pricing in a hawkish Fed.
• Unemployment Rate: At 3.9%, even small deviations here can spark significant recalibrations in sentiment.

🛡️ BOND MARKETS thrive on payroll data. Whether yields spike or plunge, the Treasury playground offers short-term opportunities to create cash. Avoid pre-positioning unless you’re a gambler. The first reaction often leads to a second, sharper move. Set tight stops – volatility will spike post-report.

• Instruments:
• Playbook:

⏰ Altcoin Frenzy: Profit-Taking Time

The crypto market’s recent euphoria isn’t the start of a bull market – it’s the afterglow of Bitcoin’s breakout. JasmyCoin (JASMY) and AMP have ridden this wave, but speculative fervor doesn’t last forever. Momentum dissipates quickly in speculative altcoins. Whales are already whispering about cashing out. Scale out in increments to avoid being caught in a sudden liquidity crunch.

• 🎺 JasmyCoin (JASMY): Watch $0.05. If it fails to break through convincingly, lock in profits. The next support sits at $0.045 – a decent reentry point after consolidation.
• ⚡️ AMP: Resistance at $0.01237 is a neon “EXIT” sign. Gradually offload as it approaches. Wait for $0.0096 for reentry after pullbacks.

🥇 Gold sits at an inflection point, hovering near $2,650. Friday’s jobs data will set the tone, as gold grapples with the dollar and real yields. Don’t preempt the move – wait for confirmation. For leveraged bets, gold futures offer sharper exposure than GLD (SPDR Gold Shares ETF).

How to Play It:

• 🥺 Scenario 1 – Payrolls Disappoint (Weak Data):
• 💪🏻 Scenario 2 – Payrolls Surprise (Strong Data):

🛡️ Nonfarm Payrolls hold the key to bond moves, altcoins are ripe for profit-taking, and gold’s path hinges on post-report dynamics. Trading this week isn’t about rushing in; it’s about precision and patience. Position yourself wisely, take profits methodically. Volatility isn’t the enemy – it’s the accomplice.

🃏 Play the hand you’ve dealt yourself like you stacked the deck …

👀 WATCHLISTS

Commodities

Metals

• 🥇 Gold: $2,643.40 ▲ (+0.20%). Support at $2,625, resistance at $2,675. Consolidating ahead of U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls.
• 🥈 Silver: $30.84 ▲ (+0.46%). Support at $30.00, resistance at $31.50. Industrial demand remains steady.
• 🥉 Copper: $4.1420 ▲ (+0.58%). Support at $4.10, resistance at $4.20. Buoyed by China’s infrastructure investments.
• 🥇/🥈 Gold-Silver Ratio: 85.70 ▼ (-0.31%). Reflects silver’s relative strength over gold.
• 🥇/🥉 Gold-Copper Ratio: 637.80 ▼ (-0.39%). Indicates copper’s relative strength over gold.

Please visit my Tradingview page for a real-time version of this Watchlist.

Energy

• 🛢️ Crude Oil (WTI): $68.43 ▲ (+0.84%). Support at $67.00, resistance at $70.00. Prices rising on geopolitical tensions impacting supply.
• 🛢️ Brent Crude: $70.04 ▲ (+0.88%). Support at $68.50, resistance at $71.50. OPEC+ production cuts tightening supply expectations.
• 𐂕 Natural Gas: $3.00 ▼ (-4.46%). Support at $2.90, resistance at $3.10. Mild weather forecasts lowering demand outlook.
• ⛽ Gasoline: $2.60 ▲ (+1.56%). Support at $2.50, resistance at $2.70. Refinery outages tightening supply and boosting prices.
• ♣️ Coal: $140.29 ▲ (+0.64%). Support at $135.00, resistance at $145.00. Industrial activity in Asia driving higher demand.
• ⛢ Uranium: $81.98 ▲ (+0.39%). Support at $80.00, resistance at $85.00. Sustained interest in nuclear energy keeping prices elevated.

Please visit my Tradingview page for a real-time version of this Watchlist.

Indices

🌏 APAC Session

• 🇯🇵 Nikkei 225: 39,276.39 ▲ (+0.07%). Marginal gains, data-driven movements from the session.
• 🇨🇳 Shanghai Composite: 3,364.65 ▼ (-0.42%). Declines linked to market adjustments following recent gains.
• 🇭🇰 Hang Seng: 19,742.46 ▼ (-0.02%). Limited movement as investors tread cautiously amid property-sector concerns.
• 🇦🇺 ASX 200: 8,462.60 ▼ (-0.38%). Weakness in resource-heavy sectors impacted overall performance.

🌍 European Sessions

• 🇫🇷 CAC 40: 7,292.08 ▲ (+0.51%). Positive moves supported by strength in the day’s leading constituents.
• 🇩🇪 DAX 30: 20,206.41 ▲ (+0.95%). Broad-based gains observed across major indices in the region.
• 🇬🇧 FTSE 100: 8,332.56 ▼ (-0.32%). Session pullback, led by sector-specific declines in major components.

🌎 American Sessions

• 🇺🇸 DXY (US Dollar Index): 95.50 ▲ (+0.20%). Firmed due to prevailing sentiment in currency markets.
• 🇺🇸 Dow Jones Industrial Average: 35,500.00 ▲ (+0.30%). Day’s movement consistent with broader momentum in equities.
• 🇺🇸 Nasdaq Composite: 14,200.00 ▲ (+0.50%). Gains observed in key growth stocks driving the index.
• 🇺🇸 Russell 2000: 2,300.00 ▲ (+0.40%). Performance reflects day-to-day movements in small-cap markets.

Please visit my Tradingview page for a real-time version of this Watchlist.

U.S. Stocks Watchlist

• American Airlines Group (AAL): $17.38 ▲ (+16.87%). Soared on an exclusive 10-year credit card partnership with Citi, expected to boost pre-tax income by $1.5 billion annually.
• Apple (AAPL): $243.04 ▲ (+0.004%). Flat movement as markets await new product announcements.
• Amazon (AMZN): $220.55 ▲ (+1.11%). Gained after AWS announced expanded AI partnerships.
• Bank of America (BAC): $47.00 ▲ (+1.34%). Strength in financials tied to hawkish Fed expectations.
• Ford Motor Co. (F): $10.44 ▼ (-2.79%). Declined after a cautious outlook on EV profitability.
• Intel (INTC): $20.80 ▼ (-5.24%). Dropped following weak guidance on next-gen chip production timelines.
• Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA): $24.79 ▼ (-4.47%). Pulled back after recent highs, tracking Bitcoin’s slight cooling.
• NVIDIA (NVDA): $145.06 ▼ (-0.03%). Slight dip despite stable demand in AI and gaming sectors.
• Tesla (TSLA): $369.49 ▲ (+3.18%). Jumped on strong deliveries for its Cybertruck, exceeding market expectations.
• Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD): $10.68 ▲ (+0.33%). Marginal gains after announcing new content partnerships.

Please visit my Tradingview page for a real-time version of this Watchlist.

🛡️ Bond Markets

🌏 APAC

• 🇯🇵 Japan 10-Year JGB Yield: 1.05%

🌍 Europe

• 🇫🇷 French OAT 10-Year Yield: 2.10%
• 🇩🇪 German Bund 10-Year Yield: 1.85%
• 🇬🇧 UK Gilt 10-Year Yield: 2.25%
• OAT-Bund Spread: 0.25%

🌎 Americas

• 🇺🇸 US 2-Year Yield: 4.17%
• 🇺🇸 US 10-Year Yield: 4.23%
• 🇺🇸 US 30-Year Yield: 4.40%
• 🇺🇸 US 2Y-10Y Spread: 0.06%

Please visit my Tradingview page for a real-time version of this Watchlist.

Cryptocurrencies

₿ Bitcoin hitting six figures is like seeing Elvis alive in Vegas—shocking, yet somehow inevitable.

🚦 The catalysts include 🍊 the President-elect nominating Paul Atkins, a crypto whisperer, as SEC Chair. For those keeping score, that’s regulatory green lights, big money, and narrative mojo converging. See the Technical Speculator’s Persons-of-Interest wiki for more on Scott Bessent, the President-elect’s nominee for Treasurer.

For a deeper dive into any of the various the various crypto projects in this Watchlist, please follow individual links, below, or else peruse the growing Technical Speculator’s Dictionary in its entirety, being but a portion of the Public Private Wiki Project.

• ₿ Bitcoin (BTC) : $97,684.00 ▼ (-3.50%)
• Ξ Ethereum (ETH) : $3,869.23 ▲ (+0.15%)
• 🅇 XRP (XRP) : $2.32 ▼ (-2.11%)
• 🄷 Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) : $0.2893 ▼ (-3.46%)
• 🄰 Algorand (ALGO) : $0.4558 ▼ (-5.33%)
• ⛓️ Chainlink (LINK) : $23.94 ▲ (+0.21%)
• 🟣 Polkadot (DOT) : $10.56 ▲ (+1.44%)
• ⚡️ Amp Token (AMP) : $0.01105 ▲ (+13.64%)
• 🎺 JasmyCoin (JASMY) : $0.05382 ▲ (+29.07%)

Please visit my Tradingview page for a real-time version of this Watchlist.

🔮 The Payoff: Tomorrow’s News, Today

🏆 Congratulations on making it this far. As a chaser, taste these quieter dessert developments that could shape next week’s headlines. Consider it a reverse trading tip, this broader perspective, with a wry wink at capital complexities.

🌊 Volatility is not merely a challenge but an opportunity. Staying frosty about these emerging trends buys you time to position yourself on the leading edge of the curve. Dive deeper into sectors like LNG and precious metals, as we approach 2025, and scrutinize corporate strategies beyond headline numbers to uncover hidden investment potentials.

𐂕 Significant movements are occurring in the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) sector.

The projects listed suggest a potential easing of supply constraints. The globally-aware Technical Speculator monitors LNG shipping rates and regional price differentials. European and Asian markets are especially sensitive to increased supply, and which have traditionally been a leading indicator of price action.

• 🇲🇿 Mozambique LNG Project Revival: Mitsui & Co., in collaboration with TotalEnergies and the Mozambican government, is in the final stages of resuming the $20 billion Mozambique LNG project. Improved security conditions have paved the way for this development, which could substantially increase LNG supply to energy-hungry markets, via Reuters.
• 🇺🇸 U.S. LNG Expansion: Australia’s Woodside Energy Group has partnered with Bechtel to advance an LNG project in Louisiana. With a planned capacity of 16.5 million tons per annum, a final investment decision is anticipated by Q1 2025, via Reuters.

✈️ Airline Industry Developments:

We don’t play the financials, only the charts, but the airlines are making strategic moves nevertheless. These initiatives reflect a broader industry trend of leveraging financial partnerships and network expansions to enhance profitability. Like Intel, another stock on our WATCHLIST, news coverage via the Tradingview NewsFlow reminds the Technical Speculator to update his charts.

• American Airlines (AAL): The exclusive 10-year credit card partnership with Citi is projected to boost annual pre-tax income by approximately $1.5 billion, via Investopedia. Additionally, American Airlines is expanding its winter schedule with new routes to Latin America and the Caribbean, indicating a strategic focus on high-demand markets AA News.

© adrian dyer 2024

CAVEAT EMPTOR

This is NOT financial advice. The intention here is to learn from Real-World capital flow how to recognize, measure and profit from the price action of various asset classes in these tense times. Only YOU can select a strategy that suits your temperament, your tolerance for risk and your time horizon, such that no content for public consumption will coincide with your strategy exactly … assuming that you have a strategy. Participation in financial asset markets is intrinsically risky; long-term profitable navigators agree that you should never risk more buying power than you are willing and able to lose. Also, beware of fraudulent actors. Since counter-party risk is real, strive to learn from your mistakes and others’. Finally and most importantly, what others feel, you will feel, ergo study your emotions, but do not trust them or obey them.