Managing Italy's COVID challenge

“Good can be radical; evil can never be radical, it can only be extreme, for it possesses neither depth nor any demonic dimension yet--and this is its horror--it can spread like a fungus over the surface of the earth and lay waste the entire world. Evil comes from a failure to think.”

― Hannah Arendt, Eichmann in Jerusalem: A Report on the Banality of Evil

As the world is struggling with a second wave of the COVID-19 virus, Italy is no exception. In the next few days, new measures are expected to be introduced, moving towards a de facto lockdown. However, as we ponder what the government will or will not do, there is a growing realization that we are now witnessing the ultimate failure of politics to deal with crisis, with the unknown, and the very moment in time when democracies have crumbled and strong leaders have emerged, taking the people into grand heights or bottomless pits.

On March 10, the Italian Government declared a lockdown with strict measures forcing people to remain in their homes with a few exceptions. We saw new cases peak and the lockdown broke the capacity of the virus to reproduce at a high rate. As the virus reproduction number declined, so did virulence. We cannot be sure that it was not helped by the Summer season, and that the onset of Fall and Winter is not the main cause of a rising virus reproduction capacity. Yet, if we take the outlook proposed by a standard pandemic model one month ago, there is no evidence that ANY of the measures taken by the Italian government have reduced new cases, contained virus reproduction and mortality, or otherwise had an effect to slow or stop the pandemic to once again take command of our lives and our livelihoods. If anything, the outlook now has deteriorated.

The situation indicates that the lack of any positive effects mean that current measures have been ineffective. Moreover, the deterioration in outlook indicates we failed to take actions necessary.

The first element means that we can safely abolish the measures taken to close down establishments and restrict movements, as these were not the essence of the problem.

The second element means we need to introduce more diabolic and effective measures in areas that have not been addressed.

Instead, the Italian Government, like all the others, just treat this as a screw that needs tightening, convinced of its own infallible wisdom. There is no rethink, no measurements that allow doubt about efficacy of past decrees. One could call it dishonesty and tactics, as admitting failure could have political consequences, but there is no evidence that this is even considered. The press is playing along and keeps being suckered into the solution being akin to a tightening of the screw.

In my view, it is simple: call off all current restrictions - except for the social distancing, mask-wearing and hygiene. It will be useful in the upcoming influenza season to maintain these new-found habits. The economy is at risk, and this is a rapid way to repair damage: reverse the course taken.

The more difficult part is the priority: deciding what new measures to adopt that WILL have an effect. I would make the same mistake as anybody, placing forward my own hit and miss hobby horse proposals. I know what I see on my daily walks outside, and I would address some of those phenomena, if it was my call. My point is not to criticise people for having been wrong or ineffective when addressing a new issue in society.

However, I am certain that continuing enforcing what has not remotely had an effect to date and treating these as "part of a package" would indicate incapacity to think and a disturbing, fatal unwillingness to rethink.

It is time to think again, and to undo what has had no measurable effect at all.

There is no time to lose in changing the approach, and seeking to isolate the real issues. Do we import the virus from abroad? Are there gateways inside the EU open for travellers to evade controls? Are we relying on test swabs with a binary outcome to track and trace, rather than the higher information content in serological testing? What might the Government want to change in their idea generation and bureaucratic and expert groups composition in order to identify effective containment of virus contagion? Apparently, we need to change everything, very soon, to protect lives and livelihoods.