Meaningful call of Xi and Zelensky, restore Ukraine or vacation in Minsk, Putin´s minions in Londongrad, to-do in sanctions,1 blogger = 5 tanks

Xi and Zelensky had the first "meaningful" call

Somewhere in the corner of the bunker, there could be heard the quiet sobbing of the lonely dictator after the press release that the president of China Xi Jinping and Volodymyr Zelensky had a meaningful phone call.

China is not my forte, but I think that the phone call by Xi was damage control. Just a little more than a week ago, after the visit of Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen, China stated relatively straight-forward that there is nothing much to discuss with Zelensky at this point. Fast-forward, one careless remark changed everything when the ambassador of China to France Lu Shaye said during a television interview that former Soviet countries don't have "effective status in international law." While it caused true havoc, and with good reason, I tend to believe that it is not the official position of China, but a careless remark in the interview.

The Embassy of China fastly removed the text of the interview from the website and underlined that this comment was "not a statement of policy, but an expression of personal views". Adding that "the Chinese side respects the status of the republics born after the dissolution of the Soviet Union as sovereign countries". That was quickly followed by a call from Xi to President Zelensky, an hour-long discussion, and sending of a special envoy to Europe. So, I do think it was error-fixing and not a fundamental shift.

Restore Ukraine or vacation in Minsk

The International Working Group on Russian Sanctions or the so-called Yermak-McFaul group has published an extensive ToDo list in regard to the next sanctions. It really is extensive and just a hint to those who say that sanctions have been exhausted.

Just to name a few - dropping the oil price ceiling from $60 to $45, aiming at $30 per barrel, ending direct supply of Russian gas to EU, including Turkstream and LNG, full sanctions on oil and gas companies, and nuclear co-operation, the embargo on iron and steel products, diamonds, military and dual-use goods.

The list goes on, and maybe the most “out-of-the-box idea” is adding a “restoration of Ukraine” fee to each visa issued to Russians. “Pay reparations for seeing Rome or Paris or save money and rest in Minsk”. Please see the full recommendations list here.

“Lilliputians stuck in the 19th century” (just quoting)

The new overwhelming trend in Russia is leaked phone calls of Russian oligarchs and minigarkhs. Already two extensive phone calls between Russian top businessmen have been leaked and the spring is just starting. Not that I enjoy eavesdropping..but I actually do when it comes to the moods of Russian insiders. The best bits feature billionaire Farkhad Akhmedov saying that Putin "doesn't give a **** about anything, he doesn't give a **** about the Motherland - he is a Satan". "They are Lilliputians, ***, tiny, full of insecurities. Everyone hates, hates them. "And the question is, whenever will this [the war] end? And what the **** will it end with? And how the **** to resolve it all after it ends?" 

The second leaked call features the same mood of Roman Trotsenko, one of the richest businessmen in Russia, and another businessman Nikolai Matushevsky. “The Russia that we love so sincerely fell into the clutches of a**holes. They’re professing some strange 19th-century [beliefs]. This can’t end well, it will end in hell. People will kill each other on the streets of Moscow.”

Their best recommendation is to run now or next year will be too late. And this is the mood of most of the Russian elite, even those who swear to President and Motherland in public. But can they change the system? No, their plan A is to sell their assets and find a new Motherland.

Rotations in the military don't change the end game

Meanwhile, after Vladimir Putin's body-double visited the ruined city of Mariupol, new rotations took place in the highest military ranks. As they say in Russian, “Even if you change the order of numbers in the formula, the outcome is still the same”. Valery Gerasimov and Sergei Shoigu are bringing their people back and Putin continues to believe that “better the one I know and control, than the new one. Yes, new ones might be better but the risk is not worth taking”. So I wouldn't make any far-going conclusions from replacing the Deputy Defence Minister and “Butcher of Mariupol” Mikhail Mizintsev or others. As Russians also say "spiders fighting among themselves in the closed jar".

Ukraine belongs in NATO. What?!

“Ukraine’s rightful place is in NATO. And over time, our support will help you make this possible,” said Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg during his visit to Ukraine. Adding, that  “all NATO members have agreed Ukraine will eventually join.” This last sentence actually captured my attention and I took popcorn, opening with Hungarian newspapers and social media. And PM of Hungary Viktor Orban never lets you down if it comes to sanctions and opposing Ukraine.

But actually, it is really sad how some members of the family don't constantly share the same values. It is simply wrong to try to convince and offer different support mechanisms to the member that prefer pretending that nothing happens and continuing business as usual with the terrorist. I really wonder what is plan B when the value-based system is broken.

Russian minion in Londongrad

Coming from a really digital country, it continues to amaze me how decentralized the systems often are even in many progressive countries. In Estonia, the business registry is completely digital and centralized, and it would be virtually impossible not to see the red flag upon the founding of a company if you are on the sanctions list. But not in the UK. Not even if you are next to Putin in “annexation celebrations” all over the news. So the Kremlin's famous minion from Kherson Vladimir Saldo managed to set up a company in his name in the British business registry five months after he was internationally sanctioned. (Yes, the same Saldo that Ukrainian famous fighter-raccoon bit). My heart goes out to LibDem Edward Lucas whose mission is to fight against dirty money in London, also known in certain circles as Londongrad. (Book recommendation: “Londongrad: From Russia with Cash. The Inside Story of Oligarkhs” by Mark Hollingsworth and Stewart Lansley”.

Go, Poland

The Russian Federation officially whined, sorry complained, that Poland has seized “significant amounts” of the money from the frozen bank accounts of the Russian Embassy in Poland. Money was frozen quite soon after the beginning of the large-scale war in February 2022 and has now been transferred to accounts of the prosecutor's office.  

This will be another precedent if the money would be channeled to the reconstruction of Ukraine. So far only Ukraine has confiscated the assets and the US has the first precedent of confiscating the assets from Russian nationalist-putininst billionaire Malofeyev. Otherwise, it has been just freezing the assets, disabling Russia to use them for financing the war. No further steps have been taken in regards to realizing the assets and transferring the money to Ukraine as so far no legal mechanisms have been found despite great declarations.

U.S. arms warplanes get “bunker-busting” bombs

According to WSJ, the Air Force´s A-10 Warthogs have been for the first time armed with 250-pound precision-guided weapons before setting to Middle East. Why does the combination of the words “bunker busting,” sound intriguing to me, I wonder.

Insta-blogger arrested for evading $10M in taxes 

In Russia, free media died a long time ago. The regime has killed some journalists, some are in jail, some have managed to escape, and some are broadcasting or blogging outside Russia. In the Press Freedom ranking of 2022 Russia was in the 155 spot out of 180 countries, but the worst was yet to come. Talking about media and bloggers, in Russia, there is a true phenomenon of blogger cults. Bloggers that are not even into politics, just casting about some vague “marathons of dreams etc,” cashing in unimaginable bucks and using tax optimization. So how to find financing for the state budget? Obviously, it is time to send an invoice for unpaid taxes to bloggers. Just to understand the scope - one of the most popular bloggers “dreams marathoner” Yelena Blinovskaya was arrested when she tried to leave Russia in the early hours in her Maybach across the Belarus border. Blinovskaya, the self-proclaimed lifestyle coach-blogger, is charged with fraud on a large scale for evading paying over $10M in taxes. $10 million means 10 years in jail. And she is just the first one in a long line of fallen Russian bloggers. For the Russian budget 1 top blogger = 5 to 10 new tanks. Why am I sharing this? Don’t know, I somehow found it interesting.  

Movie recommendation of the week

Really recommend a very good documentary "Putin vs the West" by BBC with the participation of world-leading movers-and shakers. I am not sure, where it is available but at least in Estonia it is available in Jupiter.