Media in 2020 – what happens next?

Anyone in America who turns 18 in 2020

•  Will have been born after 9/11
• Will have lived their whole life under the Patriot Act and the NSA
• Had access to broadband since their first day at school
• Had a smart phone as their first phone
• Used a tablet before they turned 10
• May never have read a ‘paper’ newspaper
• Could not tell the difference between terrestrial and satellite television
• Most likely had no idea that video was not on demand
• Never knew a world without Google or YouTube
• Used Facebook or Instagram by their 10th birthda
• Always had a games console
• Never bought a CD or a DVD much less an encyclopedia
• Always assumed that programs came with no ads or skippable ads
• Will have some kind of wearable device that captures and shares data
• Will learn to drive in an intelligent vehicle that captures and distributes driver and vehicle data
• May add the choice of operating system to their vehicle purchase consideration set

 When we think about media in 2020

• All media (other than print) will have IP characteristics
• It will be on demand
• Data enriched – in a privacy compliant wa
• Targetable at the individual level; in short it will look at lot like the web
• Available on all devices – dominated by screens of more than 50 inches and less than 9
• Available across devices – start on A finish on B
•  Independent of time and place – day parts will be personal
• Be connected to a social stream and signals from that stream
• There will be half the number of newspapers and magazines that exist today and total circulations will fall by at least half
• No media outside of live sport, will retain significant simultaneous audiences, these media will trade at massive premium to the market
• Most media will still be bundled but satellite and cable subs as we know them may have fallen by between 25 and 50%
• Most will be over the top – disconnected from schedules
• Will be chapterized and skippable
• Traded programmatically
• Perhaps half of long form media consumption will be ad free
• Media measurement will be census based not sample based, close to real time, based on better engagement measures including eye tracking, significantly influenced by social currencies AND intent based / behavioral targeting will supplant demographic targeting