Meta early lead in XR + AI Hardware Wars

The graph above shows search interest for the Meta Quest vs Apple Vision Pro (AVP) for the past year. The majority of tech reporters were seemingly wrong about how Quest vs AVP interest would play out.

Here’s what I think is happening:

1. The Quest got popular in the holiday season last year with Meta selling effectively at cost
2. AVP surged because it is a) New b) Apple has the best brand C) Tech reporters favor Apple and hate Meta
3. People lost interest in the AVP because a) price and b) lack of apps

Let’s take a look a look at search interest for the most recent 90 days and include the Ray-Ban Meta Wayfarers, the Rabbit R1 and Humane’s Pin.

The past 90 days are an interesting barometer because it is far away from announcements and the holiday season.

XR hardware thoughts:

• The Quest has taken a commanding lead in XR hardware during this non-news period
• Quest early interest means that XR indie developers will mostly be developing for the Quest
• Apple will seemingly focus on enterprise use cases. They are giving raw camera access to enterprise only. Apple could have had a surge by opening this up for consumer apps but chose not to.

AI hardware thoughts:

• Meta’s Smart glasses with the Wayfarer design are day-to-day socially acceptable.
• I did a query that included the Meta’s Headliner design but interest in those are negligible compared to the Wayfarers. Design is critical for smart glasses.
• No one wants the Rabbit or Humane AI devices. Don’t buy them, these companies are dead.
• Smart glasses are a more ideal form factor for AI first hardware relative to pendants and pins.

If you have time, I have two polls you can answer in my Games of Strategy newsletter on Substack: 1) What's your interest in XR HMDs 2) At what price point would you prefer a more affordable Apple HMD over the Quest 3.

Games of Strategy newsletter on substack

LinkedIn doesn't have polling options for articles so I can't embed it here!