Modern Technology in Agriculture, Sugar Inflation, Load Shedding, Fertilizer Updates, IRSA Water Release, FOREX Reserves, Russia Sanctions Possible

TOPLINE

• Agricultural experts advocated the application of modern tech and hybrid wheat varieties to ensure food security.
• The rise in sugar prices has led to a significant increase in the prices of other items, including cola bottles, mithai, doodhpathi, and naan khatai.
• The Power Division is to prepare 3 load shedding scenarios from March 1, 2023 to Sep 2023.
• A shutter-down strike called by fertilizer dealers has adversely affected farmers and their crops while the performance of fertilizer companies suggests that higher costs had affected their gross margins in 2022.
• Indus River System Authority (IRSA) on Thursday released 100,200 cusecs of water from various rim stations with an inflow of 60,500 cusecs.
• The total liquid foreign reserves held by SBP increased by $66 million to $3.258 billion during the week that ended on Feb 17, 2023.
• G7 ministers discussed imposing fresh sanctions on Russia on the eve of the first anniversary of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, as the UN General Assembly prepared to vote on a motion calling for “lasting” peace.

COMMODITIES - CROPS, LIVESTOCK & HORTICULTURE

• Sugar Industry: During the past five years, the retail price of a regular cola bottle has increased by 55 percent. A kilogram of mithai at any of Karachi’s flagship sweetmeat stores costs at least twice as much as it did five years ago. Lahore’s celebrated naan khatai is now 90 % more expensive than it was back then. The regular sized cup of doodhpathi your roadside Quetta Chai hotels cost at least 2.5 times more than it did in 2018. [BR]
• Cotton Spot Rate: The local cotton market on Thursday remained bearish and the trading volume remained low. The rate of cotton in Sindh is in between Rs 17,500 to Rs 20,000 per maund. The rate of cotton in Punjab is in between Rs 18,000 to Rs 20,000 per maund. The rate of Phutti in Sindh is between Rs 6,500 to Rs 8,500 per 40 kg. The rate of Phutti in Punjab is between Rs 7,500 to Rs 9,500 per 40 kg. [BR]
• Hybrid Wheat to Ensure Food Security: Agricultural experts advocated the application of modern technology, including the promotion of hybrid wheat varieties across the country to ensure food security in view of the stagnation of productivity during the past several years. [ET]
• Asia Rice: Prices of rice exported from India and Vietnam rose this week, with rates for the relatively cheaper Indian variety climbing to their highest in nearly two years, on robust demand for the staple even as global supply risks persist. Demand has been robust for the past few weeks as Indian prices are lower than competitors, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house. [BR]
• Gold Prices: Gold prices slipped to their lowest in about two months on Thursday, after a drop in US weekly jobless claims numbers favored the Federal Reserve’s stance that interest rates would have to go higher to control inflation. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,821.34 per ounce by 12:33 p.m. ET (1733 GMT), having touched their lowest level since Dec. 30 earlier. US gold futures fell 0.7% to $1,828.70. [BR]
• Annual Flower Show 2023: The three-day Pakistan Annual Flower Show 2023, organized by the Horticulture Society of Pakistan (HSP) opened on Thursday at Seaview’s A.K. Khan Park, named after Abdul Karim Khan who founded HSP in 1948 and started the annual Flower Show. [Dawn]

AGRI-INPUTS, WEATHER, WATER & POWER

• Load Shedding Plan: Power Division is said to have prepared three load shedding scenarios from March 1, 2023 to September 2023, along with fuel requirements and required funding during this period and placed the entire scheme at the highest level. [BR]
• Indus River Water Deemed Polluted: The Sukkur bench of the Sindh High Court has observed that Indus river water has become completely polluted and is no more fit for human consumption nor even for any living thing for that matter. [Dawn]
• K-IV Project Funding Request: The Sindh government will approach the federal government for release of Rs 45 billion to meet the ongoing expenditures on the much-awaited Greater Karachi Water Supply Scheme, commonly known as K-IV, it emerged on Thursday. [Dawn]
• Karachi Anti-Encroachment Drive: Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah on Thursday approved the inclusion of another 674 names in the list of locally displaced people (LDPs) of the anti-encroachment drive launched along three nullas in Karachi. [ET]
• IRSA Water Release: Indus River System Authority (IRSA) on Thursday released 100,200 cusecs of water from various rim stations with an inflow of 60,500 cusecs. According to the data released by IRSA, the water level in River Indus at Tarbela Dam was 1467.55 feet and was 69.55 feet higher than its dead level of 1,398 feet. Water inflow and outflow in the dam were recorded as 17,400 cusecs while outflow as 50,000 cusecs. [PO]
• Villages Cut Off by Snow: Two villages in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have been cut off from other areas for the past 15 days due to heavy snowfall and avalanches, according to locals. [Dawn]
• Power Regulator's Policy Guidelines: The government has sought policy guidelines from the power regulator for transferring the burden of a staggering Rs 52 billion to the consumers on account of fuel charges adjustments (FCAs) for the months of June and July, 2022. [ET]
• Fertilizer Strike Affects Farmers: A shutter-down strike called by fertilizer dealers in the city has adversely affected farmers and their crops. [ET]
• Fertilizer Sector: The performance of fertilizer companies suggests that higher costs had affected their gross margins in 2022. [ET]
• Flood Victims: Despite the two surveys that have been conducted to gauge who needs financial assistance to rebuild their homes, the Sindh government has failed to disburse any cash and now a third survey is on the cards, much to the dismay of flood affectees. [ET]
• Opinion: Labor to Mechanization - “A common litmus test for success is the kind of car a person drives; the shinier the better. This is obviously a materialistic approach to measuring a person's worth, and wholly untrue but I feel like the only scenario in which a latest model machine indicates a person's triumph is in the case of a farmer.” - By Amna Haq [PAR]

AGRI UPDATES & PAKISTAN POLICY

• Govt's Plan to Outsource Borrowing: The Finance Ministry is reportedly working on a plan with SECP to outsource government borrowing aimed at getting money from the public at less rates than banks which are lending public money at exorbitant rates. [BR]
• Foreign Reserves Increase: The total liquid foreign reserves held by State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) increased by $ 66 million to $ 3.258 billion during the week ended on February 17, 2023. According to SBP data, issued on Thursday, the total liquid foreign reserves held by the country stood at $ 8.726 billion on February 17, 2023. Net foreign reserves held by commercial banks stood at $ 5.468 billion at the end of this week. [BR] [Dawn] [ET] [PT] [DP] [AN] [Geo]
• Higher Sales Tax on Luxury ImportsThe Finance (Supplementary) Act, 2023 has empowered the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) to impose a higher rate of 25 percent sales tax on the import of luxury items. [BR]
• Imran Khan Warns Judiciary: Chairman Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Imran Khan cautioned the superior judiciary that Pakistan was passing through a defining moment and only free and fair elections could steer the country out of economic quagmire. [BR]
• CJP hints quick election disposal: Chief Justice of Pakistan Umar Ata Bandial on Thursday hinted at quick disposal of suo motu notice regarding election date for the Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa assemblies, observing that “Article 224 stipulates that elections are held in 90 days”. [ET]
• Closure of Torkham: The closure of the Torkham border for the fifth consecutive day intensified the financial and physical woes of traders, transporters and pedestrians as confusion prevailed on Thursday as Afghan authorities reopened their side of the border and Pakistani authorities insisted that they would follow suit after a formal meeting between officials of both countries. [Dawn]
• 14 Terrorists Killed in Operations: Security forces killed 14 terrorists in two separate operations in Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa in the past 24 hours, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) and the K-P Counter-Terrorism Department said in their statements on Thursday. [ET]

INTERNATIONAL – OVERVIEW & MARKET OUTLOOK

• Quake Hit Eastern Tajikistan: A 6.8-magnitude earthquake hit eastern Tajikistan on Thursday, the US Geological Survey said. The quake struck around 5:37 am local time (0037 GMT) at a depth of about 20.5 kilometers (12.7 miles). [Dawn] [ET] [Al Jazeera] [WP]
• Palm Oil: Malaysian palm oil futures closed higher on Thursday after hitting a seven-week peak, supported by stronger US soy oil and crude prices. The benchmark palm oil contract for May delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 89 ringgit, or 2.15%, to 4,235 ringgit ($955.77) by the end of trading on Thursday. The contract hit its highest since Jan. 4 at 4,238 ringgit earlier in the session. [BR]
• Taliban Demands $3.5 Billion from US: Taliban authorities called on Washington Wednesday to return $3.5 billion belonging to Afghanistan’s central bank after a New York federal judge ruled the families of victims in the 9/11 attacks cannot seize the funds. [BR]
• Biden Nominates Banga for World Bank: US President Joe Biden said on Thursday that Washington is nominating former Mastercard Chief Executive Ajay Banga to lead the World Bank, after its current chief David Malpass announced plans to step down early. [Dawn] [Bloomberg] [FT]
• G7 Discusses New Russia Sanctions: G7 ministers on Thursday discussed imposing fresh sanctions on Russia on the eve of the first anniversary of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, as the UN General Assembly prepared to vote on a motion calling for “lasting” peace. The year-long conflict has devastated swathes of Ukraine, turned Russia into a pariah in the West and according to Western sources, has caused 150,000 casualties on each side. [ET] [DT]
• Opinion: We’re Unprepared for the A.I. Gold Rush - “I think I know why artificial intelligence is breaking our all-too-human brains. It’s coming at us too fast. We don’t understand what’s happening inside the black boxes of A.I., and what we don’t understand, we understandably fear. Ordinarily we count on lawmakers and regulators to look out for our interests, but they can’t keep up with the rapid advances in A.I., either.” - By Peter Coy [NYT]

PAKISTAN - REMAINDERS

• Public Health Training 'Critically Important'. [ET]
• Zia Mohyeddin Created a Bridge Between Urdu Pakistan & English Pakistan. [Dawn]
• Protest on University Road over Extended Power Outage Causes Traffic Gridlock. [Dawn] [ET]
• Opinion: The Indolence Behind Desilting the Indus - “Desilting of the River Indus is important for the sustainability of the river and its ecosystem. Unless the river bed is dredged and silt removed from the concrete part of the barrage, its capacity and efficiency will remain hampered. Lesser water for the farmers means Sindh’s food basket is running short. Is the problem technical, financial or bureaucratic or is there a lack of sincerity in purpose?” - By Sarfaraz Memon [ET]
• Opinion: There is More to Thar Coal Than Power - “In the ongoing economic and political crises, it is heartening to see a few institutions thinking ahead. The Coal and Energy Board (TCEB) in Sindh is one of them. Within a decade or so, the myths that Thar coal is of inferior quality, that the sulphur content is too high and that the moisture is an insoluble problem have exploded.” - By Dr Pervez Tahir [ET]