Monday Morning Update: Russia-Ukraine, US Election, and UK Housing Market

Macro Monday

The length covered by the United Kingdom's rail network was just under 15,000 km in 2021, down from around 24,000 in 1953.

In 2019, there were around 1.7bn journeys made on the UK’s National Rail network, making it the fifth most used across the globe.

Zelensky Outlines Reasoning Behind Cross-Border Incursion

Over the weekend, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky outlined Kyiv’s raison d'etre for the country’s cross-border incursions into Russia.

Speaking on Sunday, Zelensky reasoned that “It is now our primary task in defensive operations overall - to destroy as much Russian war potential as possible and conduct maximum counteroffensive actions”.

With thousands of Ukrainian troops in a region spanning several dozens of kilometres, Zelensky said that the rationale also included “creating a buffer zone on the aggressor’s territory - our operation in the Kursk region.”

Yesterday, Ukrainian forces attacked a second bridge in Kursk as troops aim to disrupt key infrastructure and supply routes across the Russian Oblast. It is hoped that the elimination of the bridge – which lies next to the town of Zvannoye – will help create this buffer zone and quell Russian attacks.

Speaking on Telegram, one senior officer in the Ukrainian air force said that “The air force aviation continues to deprive the enemy of logistical capabilities with precision air strikes.”

This follows Kyiv forces blowing up a bridge over the river Seym earlier in the weekend.

With Ukraine’s cross border incursion now approaching its third week, it is understood that some 120,000 Russian residents have evacuated their homes.

State of emergencies have declared in the Belgorod and Kursk Oblasts respectively, as President Vladimir Putin continues to hold emergency meetings in Moscow with the Kremlin’s situation deteriorating.  

Over the weekend, Zelensky also sought to put more pressure on Downing Street to increase assistance. When speaking about the degree to which the UK was aiding Ukraine, the President said that “unfortunately, the situation has slowed down recently”.

Opening Day of DNC

Today marks the opening day of the Democratic National Convention held in Chicago.

The convention – held across four days – will include speeches from senior members of the party in an effort to bolster support for Vice President Kamala Harris’ Presidential bid.

First Lady Jill Biden and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson will speak today ahead of President Barack Obama tomorrow. The penultimate day of the convention will see President Bill Clinton also deliver a speech before Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi then takes the stage. Vice-President Harris will then speak on the final day of the convention where she will formally accept the party’s nomination.

As Harris arrives in Chicago, an aggregation of polls conducted by RealClearPolitics points to the incumbent VP holding a margin of 1.4 percentage points, putting her ahead of Trump. Race to the WH and 270toWin also put Harris 2.9 and 1.6 percentage points ahead of the Republican nominee, respectively.

Nevertheless, these polls point to between 5 and 7.5% of voters still being left undecided, and thus with the Presidential race all to play for ahead of election day on 5 November, it is hoped the Convention will build momentum not only for the Democrats’ bid for the White House but also the House and Senate.

Rightmove: Buyer Activity Rises on BoE Rate Cut

Data this morning from Rightmove points to UK house prices rising 0.8% on an annualised basis for the month of August, as property prices fell 1.5% on a monthly basis.

The platform indicated that “the first Bank of England rate cut for four years has led to an immediate upturn in buyer activity” with “the number of sales being agreed is now 16% ahead of the near-peak-mortgage-rate period of a year ago”.

With their data suggesting that the average rate for a 5-year fixed mortgage being 4.80%, attention continues to be firmly focused on the BoE’s monetary policy pathway and forward guidance as markets imply that there is around a 35% chance of a September rate cut priced in.