Moore or Less: The Market Rundown

As 2024 nears its end, the world shows no signs of slowing down. This week, the Fed cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to a target range of 4.25%-4.5% but signalled caution for 2025 due to persistent inflation concerns. Seems like even the Fed is nervous about making New Year’s resolutions. Other central banks also hinted at playing it safe with future rate moves—because who wants to be the first to mess up?

Meanwhile, a potential federal government shutdown looms in the United States amid funding disputes. Additionally, the Fed is adjusting its forecasts to account for potential policies from the incoming Trump administration, sparking concerns over inflation and market volatility.

Looking north, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government is in hot water following the resignation of Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland. Her departure, prompted by internal disagreements over handling potential 25% tariffs proposed by President-elect Trump, has intensified pressure on Trudeau, with calls for his resignation coming from both his party and opposition leaders.

Across the pond, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer is preparing to initiate new negotiations with the EU to reset the UK's relationship through a revised trade and cooperation treaty. The UK seeks to reduce export checks and simplify rules for goods to Northern Ireland, while the EU demands regulatory alignment, continued fishing rights, and a new youth mobility scheme.

On the war front, President-elect Donald Trump has reported progress in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia but acknowledged the complexities, particularly due to North Korea's involvement. Trump also criticized Biden’s policies with regard to the war, because what’s a transition without a little shade?

Meanwhile, U.S. and Arab officials are mediating intense discussions to broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Additionally, the US has escalated its fight against ISIS in Syria, aiming to prevent the group from exploiting the power vacuum left after the fall of the Assad regime.

Turning to global markets, volatility surged after the Fed’s hawkish signals. U.S. stocks, including the S&P 500 and Russell 2000, posted sharp declines, while Australian shares also suffered significant losses, with the Australian dollar hitting a two-year low. Meanwhile, coffee prices are set to rise steeply as adverse weather impacts major producers like Vietnam and Brazil. With arabica beans hitting a near 50-year high, it might be time to start hoarding instant coffee.

Closer to home, the South African rand held steady against the dollar as markets awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, reflecting cautious sentiment. At the time of writing, the rand was trading at 18.38 to the dollar, marking a significant decline compared to last week.

In the third quarter, South Africa recorded FDI outflows of R3.2 billion, a sharp reversal from R16.6 billion inflows in the previous quarter, driven by domestic subsidiaries repaying loans to parent companies.

In local transaction news, Brazilian fintech giant Nubank plans to invest $150 million in South African neobank Tyme Group, valuing the company at $1.5 billion. With plans to expand into Southeast Asia, Tyme is joining the elite unicorn club—proof that even in a tough economy, some startups are living their best lives.

As 2024 fades into memory, we step into 2025—a blank page waiting for its story. This past year reminded us of life’s fragility and our strength to rebuild when things break. The future may be uncertain, but within that uncertainty lies possibility. Here’s to hope, courage, and the quiet determination to shape a brighter tomorrow.