More Than Just Data: Generational Agreement (sort of), UAW Agreements, Junk Food Troubles?, and SBF Jury.
One of the joys (and frustrations) of having kids is the question, “Why?” When they are younger, it can get a little tiring and, as a parent, you also start realizing paying attention in science class would have been a good idea. Why is the sky blue? I am sure there is a good answer to this but I don’t have it at my fingertips. As Calvin asked his dad in one of my favorite comic strips, “I take it there's no qualifying exam to be a Dad.”
A little later down the line, this question makes you understand how insane the English language really is and makes you wonder why anyone would come up with a language that isn’t phonetic. Then, a few years later, this question makes you want to go back in time and try to find the person who decided using the metric system was a bad idea for the US. Because we all should have to remember that there are 5,280 feet in a mile vs. 1000 meters in a kilometer.
Now that our kids are older, there are often more serious questions about the world and there is a great litmus test on your thinking…can I explain this to a 13 year old in a way that makes sense? Sometimes this is easy, sometimes your kid doesn’t seem to enjoy a 20 minute lecture on how much fun geometric proofs are (I stand strongly behind this opinion), and sometimes it is enlightening for everyone in the conversation.
Last night, we were asked about the situation in Israel and it turned into a long conversation about the present and past and what the future might bring. The summary of the conversation landed on the idea that problems will never be solved if you view people who are different from you or people you disagree with as an enemy, versus viewing them as someone you don’t agree with. As long as there are people who use hate to try to keep power, or to try to convince people that their bad situation is the fault of others versus the leaders making bad decisions, it will be exceedingly difficult to solve our problems and challenges. It’s not just the Middle East. Our Congress and political ecosystem are prime examples of this view that “my opponent is the enemy.”
For over 2000 years, there has arguably never been a time without a war happening somewhere around the globe, which is not exactly the best track record. At the same time, we should not give up hope. Our world is completely connected and what affects one location quite likely has an effect on all of us. There are some who feel that the answer is to sever the connections and isolate, but there is no going back to a world with walls around all of us. We are on this planet together and the sooner we get to a place where disagreement does not instantly equal hate, the better we all will be.
If my kids want to ask me why I feel this way….I am happy to have that conversation.
As always, here are some of the data that caught our attention this week.
1 ) 34% and 25% ≠ 100%
The views on the war in Israel are very much driven by age. The older you are, the more likely you are to support the actions Israel has taken. As mentioned last week, the average GenZer feels that 38% of Israel’s actions have been justified while 62% have not. Among Boomers, the average view is that 76% of Israel’s actions have been justified. Clearly a different view on what is happening. However, if we move past the binary view of you do or you do not support Israel there is much more commonality.
Almost 2 in 5 Boomers (38%) have an absolute view on Israel’s actions with 34% saying 100% of what Israel is doing is justified and 4% saying none of what Israel is doing is justified. Among GenZ, 32% have an absolute view (25% say 0% is justified and 7% say that 100% is). Looking at this in another way, 7 in 10 GenZ Americans see the situation in shades of gray where some level of Israel’s actions have been justified while other actions have not been. Among Boomers a majority (51%) also view the situation somewhere between black and white.
If you are talking with someone who has a different opinion on this situation, odds are that they are more likely to see nuance in their views than in absolute terms.
2) 25%
After about six weeks on strike, the Big 3 US car manufacturers and the United Auto Workers have all come to a tentative agreement. These still need to be ratified by members, but it would be shocking if they didn’t get the support needed. For each manufacturer there is a four and a half year agreement which includes a 25% wage increase for most workers over the next four years, as well as cost-of-living adjustments which was a big sticking point. This translates to a top wage of about $87,000 for workers and starting wages moving up to $30 an hour (about $62,000 for the year). There was also agreement on a shorter time period for workers to get to the top wages (three years in the deal versus eight years previously).
During the strikes the companies lost about $1billion each in production. Ford says it was about $1.3 billion for them. GM said their calculations were about $800 million in losses. For consumers, there is likely to be an increase in the cost of buying a car with the estimated labor costs increasing by about $850-$900 per car built. For context, the average cost of a new car is currently about $48,000.
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In related news, Toyota announced yesterday that they were giving US workers a 9% increase in 2024.
The UAW now seems to be setting their sights on organizing Tesla plants. This should be interesting to watch.
3) +300% = -X
There has been a lot of discussion about diabetes drugs Ozempic and Wegovy that are now showing very promising results as a weight loss solution. As these drugs become more widely available (assuming the price comes down), there are some massive shifts on the horizon when it comes to overall health, the percent of Americans who are obese, and potentially a reduction in medical costs. What is also apparently happening is that the sales of junk food are dropping. While manufacturers are being a little coy with the numbers, most companies such as Kellanova (the new name for everything Kellogg's owns minus the cereal) say they are “studying” the effects.
Earlier this month, John Furner, the head of Walmart in the US, announced that they are seeing a reduction in units sold and calories sold. The average number of calories consumed in the US has been on a steady rise over the last few decades. Currently, people in the US consume about 3,600 calories per day. In 1960 it was about 2,880 per day. Looking forward to the marketing campaigns that will invariably focus on the importance of junk food jobs.
4) 4 hours = 115 years
Yesterday the jury in the case against Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF to many) took a whole four hours to deliberate and came back with a guilty verdict on all seven charges against the former CEO of FTX. Apparently taking $8billion of customers' money to use in questionable (at best) investments, political donations, and personal real estate is not a good thing. A point which seems obvious but was clearly lost on SBF.
The outcome was not shocking and SBF took the extraordinary step of testifying, claiming that he was just a sloppy bookkeeper who just made some mistakes, and didn’t realize that he had taken customers’ money. An argument that seems better suited for a CEO who charged a few hundred dollars on the corporate card for personal items. It will be interesting to see what ground his inevitable appeals are based on.
The charges could put SBF in jail for up to 115 years. Whatever the eventual number, it is likely to be much more than Elizabeth Holmes, who was convicted of fraud and sentenced to 11 years. Now the big question is: how did Adam Newman not have to spend some time in prison?
We hope you enjoyed this week’s edition and, as always, we look forward to your thoughts and hearing what stories caught your eye this week.