My Favorite Reports on Climate Adaptation and Resilience of 2020 - Part 2: The Second Five (plus a bonus)

In a few days, the world will get together for the first Climate Adaptation Summit. It is time to complete my list of "Top 10" 2020 climate adaptation reports in anticipation of this event (you can see the first part of my list here). It is challenging to put together lists of this kind because there are many excellent reports, and 2020 was no exception despite the COVID19 challenges. My second half of the “Top 10” 2020 climate adaptation reports are (in no particular order):

1. The World Bank's Adaptation Principles: The report is interesting because it presents practical strategies for climate adaptation and resilience, broken down into 26 concrete actions and supported by 12 toolboxes. It is a comprehensive overview for planners at the central and local levels. I like the balanced emphasis on people and firms. Without the rapid recovery of firms, the economic impacts of climate disasters are much higher and last longer. Furthermore, the book does not put the onus of adaptation and resilience solely on the government. Instead, it calls for plans and actions that help people and firm do their part.

The report is unequivocally clear: without robust economic development, adaptation and resilience are impossible. However, unless this development is inclusive, those left behind will continue to receive the brunt of climate impacts.

The next four reports focus on specific sectors and how they can adapt to a rapidly changing climate:

2. Land - The IPCC Special Report on Climate and Land is an excellent compilation and analysis of the science and knowledge on the extraordinarily complex interactions between land and climate, and the great opportunities to work on mitigation and adaptation at the same time.

The mean land surface air temperature has risen a lot more than the level we usually talk about, namely global mean surface temperature. The current temperature over land has increased more than 1.5oC over the last 100+ years. This has resulted in more frequent, intense, and longer heatwaves and dust storms, and faster land degradation. Agriculture, forestry, and other land-use activities account for about 23% of net GHG emissions. Many other statistics and projections in the report are quite interesting!

The report presents a wide range of land-related responses that can contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation, fight land degradation and desertification, and help with the food security challenge. This is easier said than done because of the multiple sectors and levels of implementation.

Some solutions are less complicated, such as improved management of grazing lands and croplands or better forest management. The report highlights the importance of ecosystem-based adaptation. It also discusses the difficulties that large-scale afforestation and reforestation would face due to land-use conflicts. Finally, the report reviews two essential actions: diversification in the food system with balanced diets, and reduction of food loss and waste. The latter contributes 8-10% of GHG emissions as 25-30% of all food produced is lost or wasted. The report indicates that by 2050, reduced food loss and waste and dietary changes could free several million km2 of land with great mitigation and adaptation benefits.

3. Water - The 2020 UN World Water Development Report Water and Climate Change reviews in detail the deep connections between them. It is through water that the most significant impacts of climate change are felt. A few interesting statistics from the report:

• Water demand by 2050 could increase by 55% globally with large variations across sectors, from manufacturing (+400%) to domestic use (+130%)
• During the past 20 years, floods and droughts caused more than 166,000 deaths, impacted 3 billion people, and caused economic damages of almost $700 billion
• In 2016, out of $455 billion invested in climate financing, only $11.7 billion went to water and wastewater ($11B for adaptation and $0.7B for mitigation). The report argues for more opportunities to merge the two agendas with practical efficiency programs.

4. Fragility and Conflict – ODI's report on Climate Change, Conflict and Fragility has an excellent summary of the evidence available in this area. It also defines a critical research agenda forward to resolve the many unknowns. The question of whether climate disasters escalate social and violent conflict still requires more research. In some cases, disasters tend to promote cooperation and collaboration leading to social cohesion. There is much to be explored on the question of whether combining climate adaptation with peacebuilding and conflict prevention can lead to greater impacts. These combinations may require quite different approaches, including situations where the state is not in the driver's seat, for example, in areas where non-state armed groups operate.

At the same time, climate adaptation programs in conflict areas must have a conflict lens. Otherwise, they can amplify social tensions by depriving – unintentionally – some groups while benefiting others. And vice versa, post-disaster reconstruction efforts must include adaptation principles to ensure the sustainability of investments and benefits.

5. Food and Agriculture – FAO's 2020 State of Food and Agriculture focuses on how to overcome water challenges in agriculture. Adaptation is at the core of the discussion. Three interesting messages from the report are:

• 41 percent of current global irrigation water use is estimated to occur at the expense of environmental flow needs. The expected fluctuations in water availability due to climate change will significantly impact ecosystem services in those water basins.
• Water harvesting and conservation are indispensable practices for farmers working on 128 million hectares of rainfed land. These practices could increase production by 24%. Irrigation expansion would increase it by more than 40%.
• 62% of irrigated land (171 million ha) are under high or very high water stress. Radical changes in water productivity are needed to adapt to climate change.

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It is always tricky to stop lists at 10 items. Therefore, I am adding a brief list of five other reports with focused and practical approaches that I liked a lot during the year.

First, this report reviews the transmission channels by which climate change affects sovereign risks, from the fiscal impacts of climate disasters to financial sector stability risks. The report calculates climate vulnerability's effects in ASEAN economies to be around 155 basis points on average. Second, this working paper from WRI reviews specific cases of transformative adaptation in Bhutan, Costa Rica, and Ethiopia. The Global Commission for Adaptation called for more transformative changes in adaptation: incremental change is necessary but will likely be insufficient in many situations.

Third, we know that globally 26 million people fall back into poverty every year due to floods, droughts, and other disasters. There is a lot of discussion on using social protection mechanisms as a tool for resilience. This report from GFDRR goes into the "how" to do that. Fourth, insurance must be part of the adaptation solutions menu. However, this menu needs many types of insurance mechanisms. This report goes into the specifics of how to set up catastrophe insurance programs for public assets. Finally, we cannot forget the WEF Global Risks Report. It shows how climate action failure and extreme weather are seen in the top risk category in terms of likelihood and impact by over 750 global experts and decision-makers.

2021 will bring new reports connecting climate adaptation and the pandemic. We expect many reports will review the opportunities for joint solutions to the crisis in countries' economic recovery programs. The upcoming 2020 State and Trends by the Global Center for Adaptation is expected to discuss some of these proposals.

If you have other suggestions on adaptation studies, let me know. There is much to learn in this area!