“To my friends in Moldova – you may be next”

We are all watching the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine – that’s what Russian President Vladimir Putin has called his invasion of his neighbor to the southwest.

The military operation was supposed to be a quick thrust into Ukraine to seize the capital, replace the government with a Moscow-approved surrogate, followed by integration to the Russian Federation.

Not so fast, Volodya,

The Ukrainians have mounted an unexpected stiff – and fairly successful – resistance to the Russian invasion. The decapitation of the Ukrainian leadership did not occur, and the Russians have been dragged into a costly operation to meet their objectives.

There are numerous highly-qualified military analysts out there (we have been focused on the Soviets/Russians since the end of World War II) that are providing insights as to how the Russians have failed their forces in the logistics, communications, leadership, force integration arenas, things we do routinely.

Putting the Russian armed forces’ challenges aside for a moment – let’s assume for argument’s sake that the Russians subdue Ukraine and have their way in Kyiv, whether by brute force, intimidation, or negotiations. Then what? Absent an unlikely clear Ukrainian military victory, Putin will turn his sights to other areas.

If I were a resident of the Republic of Moldova, I would be concerned. Putin has made no secret of his desire to expand the size of the Russian Federation. If we look at Putin’s earlier “special military operations” in Ukraine, we have a blueprint for how this works. Former republics of the Soviet Union who have not joined NATO are particularly vulnerable.

It all starts with Russian ethnicity. Putin, for whatever reason, regards himself as the protector of all things Russian, including ethnic Russians living in other countries. This was the mechanism he used to justify his 2014 invasion, occupation, and annexation of Crimea, which most of the world regards as part of Ukraine. Although there was a referendum in which an overwhelming majority voted to join the Russian Federation, questions remain about the validity of the voting.

Personal anecdote on Crimea – Emily and I were touring St. Petersburg, Russia, in 2016 (I had a cruise ship lecturing gig). I asked our guide some general questions about living in Russia – cost of living, availability of basic necessities, price of gasoline, etc. She said that it was sometimes hard to get food items because of the economic sanctions, but that Russians were a resourceful people and merely expanded farming in “the southern part of our country, Crimea.” Unusually for me, I just let it go.

I also asked her about Vladimir Putin. I knew I had to take her answer with a grain of salt since she has a guide license from the government, which is how she makes a living. She told me that Putin was from St. Petersburg, and as such he is regarded as a “local boy done good” as we would say, and was making Russia relevant again. When I asked about the increase in military spending (to my surprise, she was aware of it), she said that “we Russians are used to being poor, and the President is making us important again.”

Putin decided that the residents of the eastern portion of Ukraine, referred to as the Donbas, actually consisted of two republics inhabited mostly by ethnic Russians – the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic.

These two imaginary countries were recognized by Russia in February 2022 – Russian forces invaded Ukraine to assist these two “republics” as well as to “de-Nazify” Ukraine.

Putin can easily apply the same formula in neighboring Moldova. In fact, I believe he already has.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moldova became an independent republic. Emily and I visited there in 2015 and were hosted by a Moldovan family for a short period of time. Being guests of a local family allowed us to gain a unique view of the country, compared to the tourist experience (not that Moldova is a major tourist destination). They were quite open about the political situation in the country and the region.

Without any empirical data, based on my conversations with a variety of Moldovans – mostly in the capital of Chișinău and a few outlying towns – it appears to me that more than half the population favors closer cooperation and a possible merger with neighboring Romania. The two countries share the same language and similar cultures.

There is a sizeable minority of the population is in favor of closer cooperation with, and possible reintegration with, the Russian Federation. The problem with integration is the lack of a common border.* Our hosts Artur, a dentist, and his wife Lucia, an accountant with the national tax agency, were firmly in this camp.

Artur once told me that an unscientific indicator of which side of the issue people were on is the alphabet they used to write the Moldovan Romanian language. Supporters of closer ties to Romania use the Latin alphabet, while supporters of closer ties to Russia use the Soviet-era Moldovan Cyrillic alphabet.

As I mentioned, there is a certain segment of the population that leans more toward the East, more toward the Russian Federation. That alone does not give Putin the reason/excuse he needs to make a play for Moldova. However, the local Russian minority has created it for him. Could there have been a covert Russian intelligence effort to make this happen? Let’s just say that Vladimir Putin was a long-serving officer in the Soviet KGB, leaving that service in 1990 as a lieutenant colonel.

As the Soviet Union was beginning its demise, the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic (Transnistria) was established in 1990 in hopes that it would remain within the Soviet Union should Moldova seek to unify with Romania or become in independence country. Moldova declared independence in August 1991, as did Transnistria. An armed conflict erupted in March 1992 between the new country and the breakaway republic.

Here’s where it gets interesting. Remember that as part of the Soviet Union, there were Soviet forces stationed in the area formerly called the Moldovan Socialist Republic, now known as Transnistria. At the start of the conflict in March, a number of Russian soldiers "defected" to Transnistria. It was apparent that this was all a farce, that Moscow was still in command of these forces (despite claims of neutrality), who defeated the Moldovan national forces. The new Moldovan government had lost control over a part of its country, losing it in effect to Russia.

The ceasefire agreement reached in July 1992 established a Joint Control Commission that included Moldova, Transnistria, and Russia, which “agreed” to provide peacekeeping forces in what is now a supposed to be a demilitarized area. As of 2022, there are an estimated 1,500 Russian troops in the country.

Transnistria remains an unrecognized but de facto independent republic with its own government, legislature, military, police, postal system, currency, and vehicle registration. Its authorities have adopted a constitution, flag, national anthem, and coat of arms.

The key point is the presence of an ethnic Russian minority in the country. This is a ready-made excuse for the Russian leadership to create or simply declare an emergency that would require protection of that minority.

If the Russians are successful in Ukraine, and Putin’s definition of success is unknown, Moldova could be the next target. The foothold already exists in Transnistria, just as it did in the Donbas region of Ukraine.

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* As the result of a 2005 territorial exchange agreement with Ukraine, Moldova has acquired a 470-yard strip of land on the Danube, allowing to country to have access to the Black Sea for international trade.

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