The Myth of Post-Graduation Success: How Flawed Data Distorts the College-to-Career Pipeline for Students and Student-Athletes

For decades, colleges and universities have painted a rosy picture of post-graduation life, promising students and their families that a degree is a guaranteed ticket to a fulfilling and well-paying career.

Their marketing campaigns are filled with impressive statistics about graduate employment rates and career success. However, recent research from BurningGlass/Lightcast, coupled with a closer look at industry-standard data collection methods, reveals a starkly different reality.

The truth is, the way colleges track and report graduate outcomes is deeply flawed, creating a misleading narrative that obscures the challenges many graduates face in the job market.

Industry standards for sharing post college employment is misleading

The National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE) plays a central role in this narrative. NACE releases annual reports with national career success outcomes, often citing impressive figures. Their latest report, released in October 2024, showed that the national average for career success rates in the class of 2023 was nearly 85%. This sounds promising, suggesting that the vast majority of graduates successfully transition into their careers.

However, a critical, often overlooked, factor undermines the validity of these figures: the knowledge rate. This refers to the percentage of graduates who share their post-graduation outcomes with their college and whose information can be reasonably verified. It's a crucial metric because it reveals how much of the graduating class is actually represented in the reported success rates.

To illustrate this point, consider a hypothetical scenario: a college boasts a 100% career success rate for a graduating class. This sounds incredible, a testament to the institution's ability to prepare students for the workforce. But what if their knowledge rate is only 50%? Suddenly, that "100% success" becomes far less impressive. It now represents only half of the graduating class, leaving the fate of the other half unknown.

These statistics are gathered by each college through the First-Destination Survey, a tool designed by the career services industry in the last decade as a way to level the playing field so all colleges share data based on the same criteria. But dataset is misleading!

While the survey aims to provide a comprehensive overview of graduate outcomes, its reliance on voluntary participation and self-reporting creates significant limitations. According to NACE's most recent annual report, reflecting data from the class of 2023, the national knowledge rate for bachelor's degree students was a mere 56%.

This means that the much-touted 85% national career success average represents just over half of all graduates. The outcomes of the remaining 44% remain largely unrecorded and unaccounted for in official statistics.

Who are the 44% of students and student-athletes not represented?

Well they are likely unemployed or underemployed!

Think about it!

If your college contacts you and you have gotten a job, you are more than likely willing to report to the college that you are employed, however if you are NOT employed, chances are you are likely to NOT respond to the inquiry.

This raises serious questions about the accuracy and transparency of the career success outcomes touted by colleges and universities. Even institutions that consistently rank high in national surveys are likely presenting an incomplete picture. For example, if a college reports a 90% career success rate for its 1,000 graduates, one might expect 900 of those students to be employed or pursuing further education. However, if the institution's knowledge rate is only 50%, the college is essentially claiming a high level of overall success based on data from only half of its graduating class. The reality for the other 500 graduates remains a mystery.

Solid data research shows 52 percent of grads are UNDEREMPLOYED!

The research mentioned above by BurningGlass Institute/Lightcast has uncovered a more alarming trend. By analyzing millions of recent college graduates' resumes, they discovered that a staggering 52% ended up in jobs that do not require a college degree. This finding directly challenges the fundamental premise of many college marketing campaigns: that a degree directly translates into a career-relevant job.

The implications of these findings are profound. Prospective students and their families invest significant time, money, and effort in pursuing higher education, often based on the promise of a secure and fulfilling career. When colleges and universities present inflated and incomplete data about graduate outcomes, they are essentially misleading these individuals about the true value of their investment.

This isn't simply a matter of semantics or statistical discrepancies. It's about transparency, accountability, and the ethical responsibility of educational institutions to provide accurate information to prospective students. The current system of data collection and reporting is failing to provide a clear picture of the post-graduation experiences of college graduates. This lack of transparency undermines trust in higher education and perpetuates a cycle of misinformation.

First Year GRAD Experience!

Imagine a business where over half of its customers, are not satisfied with the organization's product or service. Such a business would quickly face declining sales, mounting losses, and ultimately, closure. No company could survive with such a significant portion of its customer base feeling they’d made a poor investment.

Yet, colleges and universities operate with this very reality, largely insulated from the market forces that would swiftly correct such a fundamental flaw in any other sector. This discrepancy highlights a critical need for sweeping changes within higher education.

To address this issue, colleges must fundamentally rethink their approach to career services and post-graduation support. Simply put, current staffing and funding ratios for these departments are woefully inadequate. A significant reallocation of resources is necessary to provide meaningful assistance to the 52% who are not landing in degree-related fields. This includes enhanced career counseling, robust job search training, and expanded networking opportunities.

One tangible solution would be the adoption of a "First Year Grad Experience" program. Modeled after the widely adopted "First Year Experience" program designed for incoming freshmen, this initiative would provide targeted support to recent graduates during their crucial first year out of college. This could include workshops on resume and cover letter writing, interview skills, job search strategies, and even mentorship programs connecting graduates with alumni in various fields.

By investing in post-graduation support, colleges can finally begin to address the needs of all their graduates, not just those who immediately enter degree-related careers, and move closer to delivering the promised value of a college education.

What Do You Think?

(Further research: Visit the WSJ to see available "knowledge rates" of colleges!)