A National Agenda for the Next Decade – Catapulting the Country to Greater Heights

A National Agenda for the Next Decade – Catapulting the Country to Greater Heights

During the past few years, the country has witnessed a significant change and approach towards articulating the agenda for altering the landscape of the social architecture, economy and foreign policy which the country had been pursuing hitherto. Since the current dispensation has been in power for a while, it is appropriate to introspect to understand as to where we are, and where we need to go in the next decade. This question becomes all the more relevant as the Government itself, has been proclaiming that by the end of next decade, India would emerge as a significant power, if not a super power. For this to happen, several aspects need to be addressed, for which we reckon that the Government already would be having a plan to pursue. Nevertheless discussion and debate is the essence of democracy, particularly when a Nation is on the move and hence this piece.

Like so many thought leaders, it is our considered view, that if the country has to emerge as a major power, its economic resilience has to be robust and strong. Unless this is provided a measure of control, fillip and robustness, the goal to emerge as a major power perhaps, will remain an elusive dream in the near future. It is therefore important, that an Agenda for the decade must be drawn and closely followed up, such that the country could rise above personal predilections and political allegiances and only look at hard facts, which could set the country on the path of strong growth and upward trajectory.

Perspective

It is well know that the British simply abused and looted National Wealth and left the country, amidst a quagmire of squalor, impoverishment and penury. Nation building certainly therefore had a task cut out for itself at the advent of Independence. While the beginning was tentative and steady, the policy framework had a fair degree of left leaning, whereby entrepreneurship and positive instincts for bringing efficiency in the system was somewhat relegated to the background.  Consequently, while a massive Nation Building campaign was launched, the scale, efficiency, complexity and liberal view was suppressed and curtailed with the result, the Nation only crawled instead of galloping ahead. Some fairly good things happened though, during these initial years. Key infrastructure in terms of steel production, dams, railways, roads agriculture all found place in national planning and did gain some momentum. Slowly the green revolution was ushered, followed up quickly with the white revolution. Nevertheless, the Industrial instincts of the Nation remained somewhat incognito and underexploited, ostensibly for reasons of a distinct left leaning. The first four decades of the country therefore, had much the same story to narrate.

1991, however, proved to be a land-mark year for the Nation, where the guarded policy of the previous four decades and more, was simply set aside and the winds of change were ushered in. As the country was liberalized from the cudgels of License and Permit Raj, globalization was encouraged and the industry was thrown open to the animal spirits of creativity.  The results were immediately visible, as a volcano per se seemed to erupt as the creative instincts of the Indian community at large were unleashed, as it found a natural outlet to excel.

The GDP of the country soared, and for a while the country began to compete with the best in the world in terms the annual growth rates. The story of National growth thereafter, has been steady with an upward trajectory and irrespective of the regime in power, the Nation has galloped forward towards becoming an aspirational and ambitious India. The history of Indian economy till 2014 therefore, had a certain trend and emphasis, wherein both a mix of good and not so good, was witnessed. However, 2014 was a threshold year, wherein a new regime took control of the governance and suddenly, India as a Nation began to look at things very differently from what was pursued hitherto!  

Current Scenario

The first few moves of the new Government were a tell tale in itself wherein, a cataclysmic shift of the priorities and policies of the Nation was witnessed. While the issues could be several, what was important was to note that the approach towards the National issues was more fundamental. The social agenda to cater to the last mile on one hand and block buster fillip to the National Growth on the other through strong and powerful infrastructural growth was clearly evident.

 The first commitment of the Government was to root out corruption and start plugging the leakages. While a number of measures towards the same were undertaken, the most visible and perceptible difference was the fact, that the Government intended to bring transparency in the system through Digitalization and discipline in the economic transactions. Massive campaign of opening up Jan-dhan Bank Accounts for the poor, regularization of Aadhar as a singular identify, laying optical fiber net work across the Nation and linking all personal and capital transactions through the digital route were all probably, once in a century initiative. Bank account penetration has already reached about 80% against 35 % in 2011. It is only a person with most noble intentions who would bring over 40 crore people in the mainstream through the banking system! Bravo!  This noble initiative of the government itself provided a strong playground for the economy to thrive in a particular trajectory. All of a sudden cash transactions began to vanish and transfers of direct benefits to the poor became more visible, transparent and free of leakages.

Demonetization and GST

Close on the heels of ensuring the curbing of cash dealings, a major decision was taken by the Government in terms of demonetization to cleanse the system, above all it was meant to root out corruption, and throttle the resources of radical organizations and NGOs and agencies with nefarious designs. While on the face of it, demonetization has invited lot of criticism as it did impact the growth of the country besides being unable to get the real trail of vast pockets of illicit money, yet it had a debilitating effect on the designs of the anti-national organizations. There was therefore a positive side of demonetization too!

To add further transparency in the system, to enlarge the tax net and to simplify the taxation system, GST was launched to ensure that across the Nation, only one tax is followed. While the intention was noble, the preparedness for GST as a single tax across the Nation was found severely wanting in the initial years, which led to temporary chaos and uncertainty. However, with the passage of time and attending to the teething problems, GST per se has emerged as a major winner for the country. The tax collections have soared, besides the tax ambit too gradually getting magnified. This is, of course, work in progress and lot needs to be done to solicit all the intended benefits of the GST system. The pathway however is now clear and succinct, and it is only sustained follow up and close monitoring that is bound to continuously enhance the tax collections, and obviate tax evading tendencies.

Social Inclination

With transparency being a cardinal principle around which the economic policies were being introduced, the Government began to realize the benefits of the systems gradually, as leakages were curtailed, social welfare was accorded priority. The Government’s agenda seemed to get clearer by the day, prevent leakages and divert the savings to the cause of welfare of the last mile appeared to be a clear direction. Consequently, a number of social schemes were undertaken:

1.    Swatch Bharat campaign was launched ,wherein National participation was invoked to ensure that dignity of people and the Nation was accorded priority, to secure a pristine place in the National Agenda. Sanitation coverage has already reached to about 89 % in 2021 from a low of 43 % in 2015.

2.    A common call was given for people who could afford to dispense with their subsidies on LPG, to enable its logical penetration into hinterland. It is a matter of great satisfaction for the country that over 8-9 crores of LPG connections had been rendered to the poor, which in turn has had a cascading impact the social life of the poor. 100% LPG penetration has been achieved in 2021 against 56% in 2015. Deforestation has been reduced and women have been enabled to spend more valuable and quality time to engage with their children to promote their education and schooling. This augurs well for the future. Piped gas has already achieved the reach of 10 million households now from about 2.5 million in 2015. With time CGD integration will help displacement of LPG which can be more usefully utilized as petrochemical feedstock.

3.    A strong fillip was provided to ensure that power reaches to all the villages of the country including the remotest corners of North East. This is a harbinger of real development reaching the poor. Almost 96% of the households have received electricity by 2021 which is a huge positive. A natural fallout of the same has to be increased economic activity.

4.    A Housing Scheme was launched to ensure that all the poor in the country have a proper house for themselves. Well the target for the same was 2022. Terrific progress has been made on this front, which is not only a reflection of noble intent but also enhances the economic activity as steel, cement, furniture, fittings, labor all find the demand to be sustained.  Rural housing has reached a level of 25 million now from 1 million in 2015. A truly magnificent and exemplary initiative!

5.    The GOIs endeavor to double the farmers income by 2022 was a missionary agenda. While some success has been made in this direction, there is considerable of work to be done to achieve the target. Sadly Farm Bills, which was an important step taken by the Government in the right direction had to be sacrificed at the altar of misguided agitation and political expediency. This is a strong reform and needs to be brought back in any hue or color to enable lifting the poor out of morass of poverty, exploitation and debt.

6.    It was correctly recognized by the Government, that the country is poor and access to health care is an extremely important area for which a proper avenue for the poor is created for helping them overcome one of their biggest problems. The Ayushman Bharat scheme launched by the Government has emerged as one of the largest and possibly the most beneficial social scheme as up to Rs 5 lakhs free access to hospitalization and health care has been extended to the poor.

7.    Har Ghar Nal Se Jal is another outstanding scheme led by GOI wherein it has been resolved that by 2024 all the houses in the country will be connected with Piped water supply. Tapped water stood at 13% in 2015 which augment to 52% by 2021 and the GOI already has a target of 100% tap water connectivity by 2024. This is a phenomenal achievement and a great mission.

While going through the above schemes, it is very natural to imagine as to why all this important and fundamental initiatives were not addressed in the six and a half decades and more. It is the resolve and commitment perhaps, which was missing. It is for the first time that the citizens of the country irrespective of their cast, creed and religion have been made a real part of the society. It is for the first time that someone has chosen to really help the masses of the country truly feel that there is someone who is really concerned of their general welfare and existence. It requires a lot of nobility to take up so much work with the real passion and zeal that it deserves.    

Approach to Industrial Development      

The Government approach towards industrial growth has also been significantly different from what has been done up till now. Tremendous emphasis has been provided on digitalization and it is around the strength of this core, that strong economic growth and progress can be aspired as India takes positive steps towards becoming a major power. In addition to digitalization, the call for making the India Atam Nirbhar is a very strong initiative which has provided the much deserved fillip to domestic industry to raise its levels of efficiency and production. Fantastic results are visible all over with the most stellar one perhaps, coming from the arena of defense. Not only has domestic production picked up, but strong export potential is becoming visible. The Government initiative of ensuring that at least 300 plus odd items, which were currently imported, should be manufactured domestically is a very significant step forward. This is not only enhancing the military might of the country through indigenization, but is also generating employment and revenues for the Nation, in addition to saving precious foreign exchange.

COVID – 19 and India’s announcement of its strong arrival to the world

In the recent past, the world witnessed one of its worst challenges in the form of an outbreak of manmade pandemic. While the news of the threat of COVID 19 filtered in a Nation with the population of more than 130 crores, it left the vast populace of the country a worried lot. However, it can only be an outstanding Visionary leadership’s visionary call, that the current dispensation not only combated the pandemic with strength and determination, but has also created a huge opportunity for the Nation at large out of this challenge. 

Within a span of a year or so, two major indigenous vaccines were developed which itself demonstrates the technical prowess, will and innovative capability of the country. No wonder, that while the world came to a standstill and witnessed wide spread misery and death, India some-how was largely prevented from the worst scourge of the pandemic.  Hundreds and thousands of lives have been saved through meticulous planning, outstanding leadership, and resilience of the Indian people and the dedicated and devoted services of our health care workers. No words can ever be enough for the Government and the Health care staff who have risen above themselves, to serve the people and the country. This is nothing short of stupendous. Needless of course to mention though, that India like other countries of the world, witnessed a massive set back to the economy in the aftermath of the pandemic. Economic activity touched a nadir and businesses, employment witnessed an all time low. The country experienced massive migrant flow back to the rural areas hampering growth and its prospects even further.

Against this morose backdrop, there were some important positives too, IT industry flourished as conferencing, work from home, education from home, business from home, started becoming a norm. A lot of soft activities were kept on and alive. Gradually, GOI devised ways and means where through nominal staff and maintaining COVID protocols the industrial centers were kept lubricated at a nominal level. Fortunately for the country, agriculture production was sustained and GOI ensured that notwithstanding the troubles prompted out of the pandemic fallout, the basic necessities of food, vegetables, milk etc were consistently delivered, and no shortage of any of these products was witnessed throughout the grueling period of close to two years when the pandemic reigned supreme.

The critical problem however was the fact, that the poor who had lost their livelihood and work needed food for survival. Inspite of the unbridled pressure from various quarters, Government refused to buckle down to provide cash support to people, instead the Government launched a scheme of distributing free rations to people across the country. It is a matter of great pride for all fellow Indians that the Government acted with alacrity, foresight and wisdom to cater to the nominal requirements of the poor. It goes without saying, that but for the distribution of free rations to over 80 crore Indians for a period of 28 months, hundreds and thousands of poor, people would perhaps have succumbed to hunger and starvation. Kudos to GOI for rising up to the greatest humanitarian cause in the world, this is true service to mankind and fellow citizens.

Simultaneously to revive the economic activity an important economic process was initiated to encourage loans to MSME, women and others, such that small scale industries could be supported and new small and medium industry scale enterprise be encouraged. It is a matter of extreme satisfaction that these initiatives paid dividends, as the people remained engaged in various kinds of enterprise and immediately upon easing of the pandemic growth picked up momentum and the GDP has regained positive territory and is anticipated to reach the 7% plus territory once again.

The pandemic has been a great learning experience and the Government has quickly put healthcare high on the agenda. The pharmaceuticals industry has been rightly provided the required momentum, it is evident that this Industry is likely to emerge as an important instrument around which, future health care, not only of India, but of the world at large could be addressed. While the raw materials for the Pharmaceutical Industry will be a challenge as on account of strained relations with China, the supply chains and availability of APIs has been adversely affected, it can be believed that the country will emerge out of this malaise too with success.

Infrastructure

On the core infrastructure industry such as cement, steel, energy, coal, power, fertilizers, gas infrastructure, the work carried out by the current dispensation has only been steady and perhaps a lot more needs to be done. While on the connectivity front, significant emphasis has been provided on road, rail and air connectivity, it is a phenomenal change which is slowly unfolding into something out of the world. It is worthwhile to note that up to 2015 4000 km of Highways and 43000 km of railway lines were built post independence. This is likely to be reach to 1.8 Lakh Km of Highways and 1.2 Lakh Km of Railway lines by 2025. Similarly, the ports which were handling 777 MMTPA of cargo by 2015 are likely to handle up to 3000 MMTPA by 2025.  

This is a sure to pave way for economic prosperity of the country as cities, towns and villages are gradually getting connected to the mainstream.   Rail and Air connectivity also has a clear vision, wherein significant number of indigenously manufactured Vande-Bharat trains and a number of small and large airports have been launched and made operational. This has kept the domestic infrastructure industry such as cement, steel and power remain oiled, even while the country was going through the difficulties of pandemic.  From planning and leadership perspective a fantastic strategy!

On the energy sector, the intentions have been good but the realization on ground still leaves a lot to be desired. The country’s fossil fuel import bill is extremely high and ranging between $110 B to $ 120 B annually, which has only aggravated the problems in the aftermath of the Ukraine war. It is not only crude which is now holding the country to ransom, but also gas which is becoming a cause of worry. All connected subsidies in the petroleum and fertilizer segment are bound to have an impact on the fiscal deficit of the country.

Indian exports are suddenly a talk of the town as they are beginning to achieve a significant scale and perhaps the trend is likely to continue in the next few years as well. This will be of great succor to the masses in the country. From defense to common industry, the desire to curb imports and maximize domestic manufacturing, both to cater to domestic market as well as for exports is getting stronger by the day. This has gigantic employment potential too.

 It is in the perspective of the broad contours set above, that an Agenda for the Nation for the next decade is being proposed, which is perhaps necessary, to ensure that the country catapults itself amongst the league of major Nations.

Path Forward – Proposed Agenda

While the forward Agenda for the Nation could encompass several sectors, we would in this Article restrict ourselves only two major areas viz. Socially Relevant Issues, as well as, areas which pertain to economics and industrial development of the country.

Social Issues

Population & Uniform Civil Code

India is a large Nation and is vastly populated. The debate has already commenced whether Indian population has already surpassed China or likely to do so in the near future. This, of course, has its both plus and minuses. On the positive side, a large population base can provide that many more extra hands to lend support to the National cause and sustain a low average age of the Nation keeping it vibrant and active.  However, this aspect fades into oblivion when the problems associated with the burgeoning population are set up in context.

The impact of being over populated is already being felt on the available resources and the infrastructure, as perhaps no augmentation seems to suffice. Land, coal, water, electricity per capita consumption of key raw materials and products, all begin to show a negative and adversarial trend. Above all, it is impossible to generate employment for population beyond a certain level. The Government of India therefore, needs to consider dispassionately, to bring an important Bill to curtail population growth proactively. No extreme coercive measure is required, possibly the problem can be addressed more through incentives. For instance, all the Government schemes disbursement should be limited to a family of four. The same formula could be applied for bringing perks and incentives for career growth in organizations. If the country is to be prevented from bursting through its seams, this and any other population de-growth measure would be welcome.

The beauty of the country lies in its diversity, and while, it is an example which sets the country apart from the world in terms of being multi cultural, multi lingual, it is however necessary that like so many other important issues, oneness in social ethos & practices is followed. In fact, the framers of the constitution already foresaw the need of harmony cut across caste, creed, religion and culture and therefore, they envisaged the Uniform Civil Code in the directive principles of the constitution. The practical difficulties associated with the UCC are known, yet this is an absolute necessity to ensure that social harmony, disenchantment and differences to a large extent are plugged. It is not good for the Nation that within its boundaries, people resort to practices which only breed estrangement, tensions and stress. It is high time that the growing menace of social disharmony is curtailed and the whole Nation joins together in constructive Nation building.

Curbing extremism and invoking Nationalism

The Indian ethos subscribes to the culture of unity in diversity and oneness of the society. In fact, the upbringing of the people in the country is essentially nurtured around the principle of Vasudev Kutumbkam nurtured through the strength of ethics, values, religious tolerance, universal brotherhood and social harmony. While the principles around which the basic development of personnel is carried out, is richly fed through this cardinal principles, yet it is these very cherished values which apparently, seem to be a reason of dismay and anguish for many. There is no perceptible reason but for this, which should be flaming radicalism and terrorism against a tolerant race.

The current approach of dealing with radical and hostile elements with a heavy hand is the correct policy. However, further consolidation and steady universalization of this policy across the country is important. This certainly should not be an issue restricted to creation blocks and pockets rather it should be a universal desire, of all Indians to seek a society which prohibits disharmony amongst its very people. While this desire and intent is noble, it is a known fact, that on account of extreme views of various strata and layers of people in the country, this problem is easier stated than resolved, with easy solutions. This is an issue therefore, which will have to be contended with a heavy hand till such time as it is rooted out of the system.

Aayushman Bharat

A strong Nation requires its people to be fit and healthy and Government’s recent initiatives in this direction are exemplary. Aayushman Bharat, setting up of educational institutions and medical colleges across the country, promoting pharmaceuticals industry, enhancing the medical base to make the medicines available at reasonable prices to the consumers across the country is an important step forward. Breaking multi-national cartels serving the pharmaceutical industry in this connection is not an easy task. It is hoped though that with consistent follow up and emphasis, the country can come out of the ambit of the foreign patents to have cheaper equivalence of indigenously made medicines for its populace. A strong policy in this connection is being correctly prioritized by the Government. This of course is work in progress. Possibly if the entire chain of hospitals, medical centers to pharmaceuticals industry is aligned for bringing rightful benefits to the country, it could serve as a major employment generator for the country’s masses.

It is equally praiseworthy that GOI has launched a massive global Yoga campaign through which, basic fitness and well being could be encouraged. The initiative has already been globally acknowledged and recognized for its lasting benefits. Importantly for India, it could be extremely useful as with proper Yoga practices inculcated in the daily habits of the people, the net dependence on medicinal consumption itself, would reduce substantially enhancing the quality of living of the people.

With a strong social base, a strong educational fillip and a healthy Nation, the country, can perhaps be ready for ushering in the next industrial revolution.

Cultural Ethos

The current dispensation’s initiative towards creating a ambience in which the cultural ethos could flourish, is an effort towards revival of our rich cultural heritage and values, which apparently seemed to have been lost somewhere, in the first seven decades or so of the country’s journey after Independence. Breeding cultural ethos and National fervor, is an extremely important social cause which will strength the moral and ethical quotient of the society. This should bring the people together, and gradually enable them to speak in one voice on issues which directly affect the progress of the country. This must be sustained!

For a country like India, which is a land of Sages, Saints and Temples, it is unfortunate, that medieval practices are still bring followed. Suppression of the majority and its religious sentiments is the worst that could have happened in a country in the past seven decades. On yesterday basis, all the temples in the country should be freed from Government control, such that, similar to other religions, temples are allowed to be run by people who have faith in the basic tenets of the Hindu faith, and know it best for what it stands. On one hand the Government subscribes to the credo, that it should not be in business, it is unfortunate though, that Government control is being exercised over the temples and its premises, an area in which Government has no business to be around. It is unfortunate that inspite of two strong mandates being given to the current dispensation such an important cultural issue, has not come up for consideration of the country leadership as yet, inspite of repeated calls for the same. This needs urgent rectification!

Illegal Migration and Demography

Over a period of time, for variety of reasons, the country has been susceptible to illegal migration of people from neighboring countries. This is a malaise which should never been allowed to grow in the first place. However, it is good that the consciousness towards curbing illegal migration in a country, which is already over burdened with its own population related problem is a good measure. However, it is not understood as to why the current dispensation is adopting a half-bit approach towards this important area of attention? CAA and NRC are long over-due and should have been in position as law by now. From Kashmir through Assam and West Bengal, this problem has achieved diabolic proportions, and it is sooner than later that this problem is attended to. Vested interests and political leanings should not be allowed to serve the nefarious designs of those who are inimical to our Nation’s interests. 

A strong mandate available with the Central Government is essentially for the purposes of rectifying ills of the earlier times. This problem therefore, needs to be addressed on yesterday basis, and all the ambiguity towards the measure being initiated but not closed, only speaks for poor quality of follow up on a decision already taken.

Across the globe, every Nation has a right to protect its demography and boundaries. It is not understood, that having divided the country on the basis of religion, why this unwanted pressure would be put on another Nation? The impression of deriving satisfaction of being acclaimed as a soft and pliable state seems to do more with governance than capability. Strong action is the need of the hour. The Government must plan that latest by 2025 all illegal infiltration in the country is cleansed. It is true, that difficult and harsh times require quick, strong and harsher measures for streamlining ills. Perhaps the shelf life of all these perennial ills too has elapsed! 

Encouraging women as equal partners to participate in National growth

It is unfortunate, that a society which has a glittering past of holding women in the highest esteem, somehow slid into a societal abyss which was evolved on a strong gender bias. The obvious result was that the country ended up denying itself with 50% of human resource pool and talent. It is well known, that the all those societies which are considered advanced and progressive, are the ones who have enabled the girl child, to be given equal opportunity.

It is wonderful to note that the current dispensation has corrected this major ill of the society and suddenly, one can witness and feel the change. Not only are women excelling in all the domains, but in many ways they are leaving their male counterparts far behind. From engineering, medical, pilots to defense and entrepreneurship, women are finding their due space. Even in the corporate world, women are beginning to take up leadership positions and some of them are setting examples which are truly inspiring. We hope that with this added strength and recognition of women as a deserving resource to help build the Nation shall be sustained. It would be the greatest pride for the country to emerge as a major Nation with comparable contribution from the womenfolk. It is understood that this is work in progress, but the positive encouragement for enabling the girl child to excel is the central issue, which gives us a lot of hope for a bright India ahead.  

It is evident that while the social issues listed herein, may sound naive to the intellectual community, it goes without saying, that the National progress particularly the economic progress, is critically dependent on these issues. These have to be settled progressively in the next 7-10 years, else the hope and expectation of the country to emerge as a major power, will remain elusive.

Economic Growth and Industrialization

Fundamental Needs

Some fantastic work has been carried out by the current dispensation in terms of distribution of resources across the country to reach the last mile. LPG for all, electricity for all, housing for all, water for all, sanitation for all are some stellar initiatives which the Government has taken for bringing the poor and dispossessed to be connected to the main stream through appropriate social welfare measures. In fact, all these important basic needs should have been addressed in the first 2-3 decades of Independence. However, it is unfortunate that the then Leadership of the country, chose to prefer a trickledown effect theory, rather than direct connectivity with the needy and down-trodden.

Education

The Government’s initiative to bring forward a new educational policy is an absolutely thrilling decision to construct the way forward for which education, vocation and skilling, all could be addressed with strong and appropriate measures to lift the masses from the extremes of ignorance, awareness and opprobrium. Opportunity for all is the essence behind any progressive and cultured Nation, it is therefore necessary, that opportunities are created for one and all in the country to propel the country forward in the times to come. The way the Government has emphasized that the female child must be equally bestowed with education and opportunity, is sure to put the country on the fast track trajectory to growth. It is well known that those countries, which have risen above the gender bias and have allowed the girl child to join hands in Nation building, are the ones which have advanced and progressed significantly, in the true sense of the word. It is wonderful to note that quite a good number of schools and educational institutes, including higher education institutions, are being created for India to quickly achieve excellence for realizing its true potential. This must be sustained with vigor and the speed with which education is imparted to all is enhanced. Increased digital connect in this regard must be thoroughly exploited.

Energy Sector

Across the globe, the Nations which have secured themselves with their energy needs have invariably, been able to propel themselves successfully forward towards growth and prosperity. Unfortunately, since India has not been gifted with bountiful fossil fuels, the energy basket of the country has always remained under the overwhelming burden of import dependence. This has kept the country and its finances under sustained pressure. It is true, that a lot of coal is available in the country though. However, as luck would have it, nature has not been kind in terms of blessing the Nation with high quality coal. Consequently hitherto, India has been highly dependent on its energy requirements through import of fossil fuels with increasingly high energy import bills over $ 110 B to $ 120 B annually. This is one of the major reasons as to why India inspite of so many other advantages, still struggles to serve its industrial and other requirements to unleash its latent potential.

Some salient factors which have therefore been bothering the energy industry till date include the following:

1.    Over 80% of India’s fossil fuels are sourced from abroad leading to hundreds and thousands of crores to support these energy import requirements.

2.    Fossil fuel on which India is critically dependent is sourced from regions which are highly susceptible to turmoil and geo-political tensions. This makes the country extremely vulnerable to the fluctuations and volatility in fossil fuel prices. Middle East has always been an important source of fossil fuel supplies to the country, but the region is fraught with huge problems emanating out of war, attrition and cartelization. All this is bad news for a significantly energy importing country. The recent war in Ukraine, is another example which has exposed the vulnerability of many Nations, but more so, of Asian Countries including India which are critically dependent on oil and gas import. The prices have sky rocketed, its immediate fall-out on inflation, exchange rate, current account deficits is direct ramification.

3.    Indian electricity production is largely dependent on coal, which is now under tremendous pressure because of environmental concerns. This is a serious issue for a country which is short on fossil fuels to supplement its energy resources.

4.    Notwithstanding the above, post liberalization, India has emerged as a refining hub and hopefully, in the decade to follow, may also emerge as a major Petrochemical player. The important part however, is to remain competitive. If the prices of the raw materials are high, it is natural that inspite of large refining capacity and prospective Petrochemical capacity, the cost of production would also increase and the Indian masses may have to face the brunt of high prices. It is also a perceptible point that the country is actually propelled by high domestic consumption, which shall continue to remain so and therefore, inspite of fossil fuel being imported the demand and consumption patterns may not alter significantly. This situation warrants a plan to be evolved to secure the Nation and its people from the vagaries of high prices. Energy solutions are required as without these, the dream of the country to emerge as a major power may    possibly always remain on tenterhooks.

Energy Propositions for the Decade

1.    The copious solar intensity in the country has emerged as a balancing factor to the relatively circumvent the inadequacy fossil fuel energy availability. The current dispensation has rightly emphasized on renewable energy for which, solar and wind both are strong programs. While target of 500 GW of energy to be exploited from renewable resources by 2030 has been set, the current trends suggest that India will most likely emerge as a prominent solar power hub for the world.

2.    With the availability of solar power in significant quantum and the dramatic decline in prices of solar power, huge quantum of green hydrogen production is a distinct possibility. While the talk on the subject of green hydrogen at the moment is universal, it is evident, that perhaps in the decade to follow India will emerge as a leader in solar energy production. Very strong initiatives both by the government run companies, as well as the private sector companies is a welcome sign. Soon we would likely witness electrolyzer manufacturing in the country achieve gigantic proportions, to support green hydrogen production at relatively lower costs and bring it closer to 1 to 2 $/Kg progressively from its current levels of $ 4- to $ 5 / Kg. This is an encouraging development for an energy starved Nation and perhaps, if all goes well, India could even become a net energy exporter if not in the next decade, perhaps in the decade to follow after that.

3.    For green hydrogen to be successful, apart from exploiting the renewable energy efficiently, availability of water too has to be ensured. This should prompt significant water recycling in municipalities as well as drive a number of solar power driven desalination plants across the East and the Western Coast of the country. The mushrooming of these recycle/desalination plants could find way to meet the industrial requirements substantially and also enable restoration of rivers, streams, rivulets and ponds to cater to the general society requirements. Consequently, in many ways the green hydrogen initiative will warrant the Government to pay equal emphasis on water management such that both the Industrial and societal requirements can be addressed simultaneously.

4.    Green hydrogen possibly will probably have a larger and wider potential along the Northern, Western and Southern India. Importantly therefore, the utilization of the green hydrogen for more effective usage will have to be planned simultaneously.

5.    To start with, a natural corollary would be to produce green ammonia for serving the export /domestic market. As is well known, the important part should be to continuously reduce the import of fossil fuels and therefore, one of the most important utility of green ammonia would be to support the existing capacity of the fertilizer complexes as well as cater to all the new capacity to be created. This should displace more that 25- 30 MMSCMD of gas being currently utilized to support the existing fertilizer complexes.

6.     However, for production of urea in the fertilizer complexes CO2 availability is necessary. Typically, the CO2 requirement is met through the steam reforming of natural gas to produce hydrogen where CO2 is produced as a by- product. With the availability of green ammonia, the natural gas could be cut off from the existing fertilizer plants and therefore an alternative CO2 source will have to be found out. For India, this is not an issue as many refineries, as many as 23 of them are well spread out in the country with some of them being very close to the fertilizer complexes.

 All these refineries have considerable hydrogen generation capacity, which is typically met through steam reforming of light naphtha, as natural gas is not available for allocation to the refineries. During the process of steam reforming of naphtha, considerable CO2 is produced which is currently emitted as waste gas to atmosphere. Similarly, almost all the refineries are equipped with a Captive Power Plant (CPP) which utilizes naphtha, light distillates and fuel oil to support the steam and power generation. The direct combustion of these distillates leads to considerable CO2 production. Currently all the CO2 is emitted as waste gas to atmosphere. It is important that GOI incentivizes   capture of CO2 which is currently being emitted to atmosphere. CO2 thus produced from the refineries could be utilized to produce urea along with green ammonia, thereby eliminating the requirement of natural gas which is currently provided to the fertilizer sector on priority on pass through basis. This will have the dual benefit of reduction in fossil fuel import as well as in the carbon footprint reduction as a lot of carbon dioxide liberated from the refineries will be captured and usefully utilized in the production of urea.

7.    With gradual incremental capacity of green hydrogen, the steam reformers of refineries could be gradually phased out such that the naphtha which is currently being utilized to produce hydrogen would be available to either enhance the distillate pool or enhance the petrochemical feedstock diet. This could be a huge win-win for the country and with gradual phasing out of hydrogen plants in refineries, the CO2 recovery from Power Plants and other process facilities including Cracker units could continue to meet the requirements of production of urea in combination with green ammonia.

Gasification

It is important that in addition to the renewable energy, alternate sources of energy should also be made available indigenously, such that the import of fossil fuels is reduced and the energy security of the country is also enhanced. For a country as large as India, it is evident that overall energy requirements would only increase with the passage of time. In this connection, it is important to examine the benefits of coal gasification as clean and efficient energy for production of urea, methanol, ethanol, synthetic gas, DME. Historically, while the country has been gifted with massive resources of coal, it is a strange paradox that the quality of coal is relatively poor in the country with ash content as high as 40-42%. On the contrary, the coal available in China is of extremely good quality with very low ash content. It is on account of the fact that the quality of coal is poor, that the Nation has not been able to devise an appropriate solution to captively exploit coal to meet its energy requirements. Most of the coal produced therefore is   utilized for power generation purposes.

In the past couple of decades, India has emerged as a major refining hub, wherein as part of the bottoms of barrel solutions a lot of Delayed Coker Units (DCU) have been installed in the refineries. While 70% of the vacuum residue feed to a typical DCU is converted into distillates, the balance 30% is rejected as coke which is laden with high metals, high sulphur. This pet coke however, has a lot of volatile matter and currently is found extremely acceptable to be fired in cement kilns. An alternate method of utilizing this pet coke would be to blend it with domestic high ash coal in a ratio, such that, the overall ash content of the blend is brought well below 30%. This blended feed could be an excellent feed stock for gasification units. Alternatively high quality coke could be imported to serve as a blending feedstock.

Gasification of the blended coal + pet coke mix, could lead to production of synthesis gas which after treatment, could be processed in the shift section of the plant to separate the hydrogen and CO2 streams. Additionally, synthesis gas can also be converted directly into methanol. Part of Methanol could in turn be further converted to DME and Ethanol. 

The oxygen for the gasification process could be available from the air separation plant. While the oxygen could be routed to gasifier, the Nitrogen could be combined with hydrogen to produce ammonia. Ammonia and CO2 could be thereafter used to produce urea, which anyway is required in huge quantities in the country. Additionally, an ethanol recovery plant can also be set up at the back end of the PSA tail gases to produce ethanol utilizing new environmental friendly processes like Lanzatech. Methanol and Ethanol could be readily blended into gasoline pool, whereas DME could be blended either in the LPG or in the diesel pool.

 Coal gasification on above lines too could enable reduction of natural gas requirement for production of urea. Similarly with Blending streams to the distillate pool the import of crude could also be rationalized downwards. In a way, large scale gasification units could be a tremendous energy security initiative for the country.

It is encouraging to note that the Government has already announced gasification of 100 MMT of coal by 2030, which could even be enhanced.  It would be advisable that at least 5-10 major gasification plants each processing about 20 to 30 MMTPA of coal and about 3-5 MT of pet coke / coke could be set up in the country for strengthening the energy security of the country.

Hydrocarbon Segment

While there has been a lot of hullaballoo around quickly dispensing with the fossil fuels, it is evident that fossil fuels will continue to play a part at least for the next 3-4 decades. While energy from renewable sources, coal gasification and even nuclear power are strong alternatives, but it is very difficult to imagine a World without oil and gas, particularly in the Indian context, which has large population and therefore, extremely dependent on rising energy requirements.

It is important though, that all new installations in the Oil and Gas Segment are made environmental friendly, such that air pollution to a large extent from the refineries should be curbed to make them carbon neutral. The other aspect is that with the gradual decline of distillate requirements, most of the hydrocarbon complexes have begun to look like petrochemical installations. Consequently, every new refinery has to have flexibility of swinging from distillates to petrochemicals, as the case may be. It is realistic to assume that while over a period of time, distillate requirements would reduce substantially, the petrochemical demand however, has only one way i.e. upwards. 

In the next decade at least four major integrated complexes must be foreseen which are integrated with green hydrogen, equipped with CO2 recovery, and also have a urea complex in the immediate vicinity such that CO2 could be sequestered.  These complexes could be highly integrated horizontally and vertically, such that minimal emission, maximum water recycling, 100% green hydrogen integration, and 90% plus CO2 recovery is foreseen.

Each of these complexes could foreseen with a capacity of 20 MMTPA,  with about 55% conversion of crude to chemicals through the olefin/ Aromatic routes to produce petrochemicals along with significant capacity of urea production in combination with green hydrogen and recovered CO2 from Refineries.

To further reduce the CO2 emissions the Olefin Furnaces could be electrically fired such that CO2 emissions are eliminated from the Olefin Complex and in fact, Olefin Plants become a net exporter of gas to the refineries / domestic fuel. All in all, this could be a win-win for the country as the four complexes could be spread out in the country with one complex should be located in Central India, one in South India and one each in East and West India.

Bio-fuels

Since India is an agrarian country, huge quantum of agricultural products and sugarcane is produced domestically. The country’s production levels have now reached levels where not only are we able to meet our captive domestic requirements, but the country is now in a position to export several agricultural products as well.  Same is the case with fruits and vegetables.

Since Indian imports considerable fossil fuels, it is important that the agri-waste is utilized effectively for converting the same into bio-CNG, Bio Ethanol, Bio-diesel for blending into the distillate and gas pools. While for bio-diesel feedstock is an issue, bio-CNG and Bio-Ethanol are the important blending fuels for which the country can build significant capacity. While a lot of work in this direction is already under way, and projects of variety of sizes are being commissioned, gradually, it would be prudent if more capacity in this important arena is set up.

It is a well known fact, that since the agricultural produce is widely interspersed in the country, the possibility of very large scale plants at single location on account of logistics and transportation costs is an issue. However, it would be worthwhile to consider setting up the bio CNG and the Bio – Ethanol plants in close proximity of sugar mills and refining complexes, such that horizontal integration between these plants can be achieved synergistically. This will help in rationalizing the initial capex of these plants and eliminating all the purification sections in these plants to make these plants more viable. In fact, larger number of trains of these plants could be located closer to the refineries in particular, for exchange of utilities and integration of raw produce from these plants to be processed in refineries more effectively and viably. The products produced from the bio installations could be blended with the refinery products after purification in the various facilities existing in the refineries after nominal debottlenecking if required. Since E-20, M-10, blending requirements have already been mandated by the Government, it is important that significant capacity is created in the next 5-7 years for securing maximum gains through these blend streams to boost the gasoline pool.

Raw CNG as produced from the Bio–CNG plants is laden with significant quantum of CO2 and minor quantity of H2S. Consequently, most of the bio-CNG could preferably be routed to existing fertilizer complexes, wherein both CO2 sequestration and ammonia production from the raw gas could be envisaged.

Manufacturing

While over a period of time considerable manufacturing capacity has been set up in the country, however, it is imperative that manufacturing be provided tremendous fillip in the country, to enable significant employment opportunities to be generated while also curbing the imports substantially. While setting up the Defense corridors in UP and Tamil Nadu is a step in the right direction, almost on similar lines major Manufacturing hubs could be created in various parts of the country to cater to industrial requirements of the country. And this is an activity whose time has come and must be initiated on yesterday basis.

At least 4 or 5 manufacturing clusters could be located in the country to cater to domestic as well as export orientation. All these clusters must be clubbed to produce equipment for hydrocarbon industry, steel, aluminum, copper, zinc and defense ancillaries. Additionally, all these clusters must also have substantial capacity for production of electrolyzers, semiconductors and chips as well as other electrical and instrumentation paraphernalia, which has to cater to the renewable energy requirements, as well as, the industry in general. All the clusters must be designed with a SEZ orientation and a renewed incentive policy, such that, domestic manufacturers are inclined to participate in the endeavor for providing fillip to the initiative. Foreigners too, should be encouraged to set up joint ventures. Japan, Taiwan and countries from Europe should be enabled to make positive investments and partnerships. It should be targeted that by 2032 the country’s imports of manufacturing equipment and materials should reduce to a maximum of 15% of the total requirements. 

At least 25 lakhs personnel should be foreseen to be employed in these clusters. Major employment generating industries such as textiles, leather and garment industries must be encouraged and the economies of scale magnified to a level where through utilization of domestic produce, the manufacturing hubs could compete with Vietnam and Bangladesh. Only large and competitive indigenization efforts perhaps could be a solution for making these industries successful.

At least 50% export beyond complete domestic consumption must be targeted through all this effort, so that not only economic gains are realized, GDP is enhanced, but also considerable employment is generated in the complete chain.

Coal Industry, Steel, Copper, Zinc and Aluminum

The country is bestowed with rich mineral resources and it would be worthwhile to exploit these on a large scale. Hitherto, the country has been slow to establish capacity which could enable significant production of finished materials to cater to the domestic requirement but also indulge in finished value added exports. Sadly, in absence of commensurate capacity, the country has had to export basic ore which in a way is colossal waste of opportunity. This is a strange paradox too, as on one hand the country continues to export raw ore and on the other hand ends up importing a lot of finished products!

This cycle must be reversed and a lot of captive capacity must be created within the country, such that no export of ore and import of finished product pertaining to steel, aluminum, copper, zinc etc is to be resorted to. It is proposed that in the next decade or so at least 40 MMTA of steel production, 20 MMTA of aluminum production and 5 MMTA of copper and 5 MMTA of zinc additional capacity should be set up in the country. Two steel plants of minimum 10 MMTPA capacity and at least 4 plants of 5 MMTPA of green field capacity must be set up in the country. Similarly, at least 4 aluminum plants of 5 MMTPA and 3-4 copper and zinc plants each must be set up. With this additional capacity the core infrastructure industry could be served well, and imports of finished products should come down to negligible levels. Additionally, copper would necessarily be required in large quantities as the renewable energy program gains momentum. In a long term perspective, copper certainly is likely to become a scarce commodity. New base metals such as titanium, cobalt, lithium also should be examined for setting up domestic capacity in the country, as most of these will find way into the plans to augment renewable and EV Battery plans of the country.

Economic Efficiency and Implementation

The Government has mentioned severally that the Government itself has no business to be in business. While the motto is well intentioned, however, the pace at which this intention is being converted into real action leaves a lot to be desired.  No meaningful privatization or disinvestment has taken place in the past 2-3 years except Air India. This should not be the case. If the Government can entrust production of defense equipment in private sector, one wonders why a large amount of fertilizer, refining, petrochemical, steel, aluminum, copper still remains in the public sector or Government owned companies. The pace of privatization is an absolute must, for providing fillip to modernization and development of the country at brisk pace. Inefficiency has to be curbed and while it has to be ensured that no jobs are lost, it is important that lot of additional capacity and de-bottlenecking of existing facilities for more efficient output has to be the singular agenda of the Nation. Except perhaps the core and social industries such as Nuclear, Space, Education, Health Care, rural upliftment, sanitation and core infrastructure to lift villages, 50% transportation & Defense, most of the other sectors must be privatized. This will be changing the performance index of the country substantially, as performance, efficiency and productivity will become the guiding norm.

Project Implementation is another area which is a challenge. Several Engineering led Industries such as Oil and Gas, Fertilizers, Aluminum, Steel, Zinc and Copper, Coal and Power continue to operate in the Public sector. While the disinvestment in all these sectors will take a while, the new projects which are to be implemented must be to scale, on least cost and above all on the least overall schedules. It is strongly recommended that in these Industries, only the EPCM and OBE mode of implementation should be pursued and the longest overall schedule and highest cost mode of implementation viz; EPC is discouraged. It is important to use domestic talent and public resource. On an average 25-30 % of the Capex can be saved on account of the margins that are lined with EPC mode. Additionally, minimum schedule saving of 7- 9 months on the overall schedule can be envisaged based on concurrent Engineering and procurement that can be initiated in EPCM and OBE mode. In EPC mode of implementation no meaningful implementation activity commences till such time as the LSTK contract is awarded which itself, is a long drawn and time consuming affair in PSUs.

Exports – Agriculture, Electronics and General

The Farm Bills must be brought back in some form or the other, wherein on an average farmers earnings would increase substantially and gradually the agriculture itself will be modernized for general eradication of poverty and also enable the Nation to become a farm product major exporter. In fact, in the next decade or so, at least 25-30% of the country’s agricultural produce should be targeted for export. This will change the complete equation of current account deficit and gradually make the country economically stronger.

The total exports of all commodities from the country must on an average be targeted for and increment of at least 4-6 times from their current levels, such that, domestic industry gains fillip and India finds strong markets abroad to enable it earn valuable foreign exchange. Complete self sufficiency in digital engineering and gadgetry must be achieved in the next 10 years to enhance the digital revolution, which is already under way. On the conservative side India has to target to become a net exporter of the electronic machinery in the next 10 years. While the software capabilities of the country have already been demonstrated globally, it is high time that that it emerges as a major hardware hub as well, to enable the country to make a giant leap forward.

Export EPC Projects

Since the country has gained considerable Project Management, Engineering and Manufacturing skills, which will only augment further with time, India must launch itself forward to set up large capacity plants on the EPCF route in the African sub-continent to start with. While Africa perhaps, does not have enough resources to finance large projects, it has significant energy resources which can be bartered in exchange of projects set up in Africa, completely designed, engineered, supplied and constructed by India. Huge fillip to manufacturing and services sector will arise out of this. Upon completion of the projects while the energy imports could perhaps be dispensed with, a lot of start up, commissioning and operations and training services could be provided by India. Refinery, gas Processing, Petrochemicals, Fertilizers, aluminum and Power are major segments where a lot of projects could be implemented in Africa. A total India Inc approach towards this vision is required to have the mission accomplished.

Most of the suggestions covered above, hopefully, may already be in the Agenda of the Policy Makers guiding GOI. Nevertheless, the above is a practical blue print of what can be achieved realistically, to help India emerge as a major Industrialized Nation as well. All political and other considerations must be set aside, and the next decade must be committed solely to development and enhancement of the country and exploiting of its latent human resource potential and its naturally gifted resource base.

There is good reason to believe, that the forthcoming decade should mark the beginning of a golden era, to restore the pride, glory and ethos of the ancient times. With the leadership that the current dispensation is providing in taking the country forward with a structured development agenda, there is every reason to believe, that the Nation making entry into the big league of Nations is not utopia, but is solely within the realm of possibility and practical realization.

The time has come for India to become the 3rd largest economy latest by 2032 and possibly the second largest economy by 2050. Let’s all together join Nation in the excitement and joy of taking this country to the proud heights where it actually belongs!   

Jai Hind! Jai Bharat!