NBA Western Conference First Round Playoff Predictions

By: Layth Dahman

The playoffs start on August 17, 2020. Here are my Western Conference playoff predictions for the first round:

(1) Los Angeles Lakers (52-19) vs (8) Portland Trail Blazers (35-39)

Season Series: Lakers won series 2-1

December 6: Lakers won 136-113

December 28: Lakers won 128-120

January 31: Trail Blazers won 127-119

Prediction: Lakers win series 4-2

Key Matchup: LeBron James vs Damian Lillard

The Lakers should be favorites to win this series. The Lakers are a better defensive team while the Blazers are a better offensive team. The Lakers rank 9th in offense scoring 112.2 points per game per 100 possessions and 3rd in defense allowing opponents to score only 106.7 points per game per 100 possessions. The Blazers rank 3rd in offensive rating scoring 113.5 points per game per 100 possessions but rank 27th in defense allowing a whopping 114.7 points per game per 100 possessions. For the Blazers to have a chance in this series they need to play better defense. This Portland team is different from their team last year in the playoffs. They don`t have a versatile defender who can guard multiple positions. Last season in the playoffs they had Maurice Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu to fill that void in their lineup allowing them to go to the Western Conference Finals. This season Rodney Hood, who could fill that void, tore his achilles midseason, and Trevor Ariza, whom they acquired during the trade deadline, opted out. On the offensive end, LeBron James and Anthony Davis are going to have their way. The Blazers do not have anyone who can contain them. James is going to be able to drive inside, shoot the mid-range, shoot three-pointers, and shoot post fadeaways over shorter defenders with little to no resistance. Davis is also going to be able to drive inside, shoot the mid-range, space the floor by shooting threes, operate in the post, and catch lobs with no resistance. In the 2018 playoffs, Anthony Davis faced this same Trail Blazers team and averaged 33 points per game, 11.8 rebounds per game, 1.8 steals per game, and 2.8 blocks per game. In this series, he was able to get whatever he wanted at the rim and mid-range with no resistance. Jusuf Nurkić was unable to stop Davis and it resulted in a sweep.

The Lakers need to contain Lillard, so the series doesn't extend. Lillard this season is averaging 36 points per game, 9 assists per game, 6 rebounds per game. He has been unstoppable from inside, mid-range, and three-point range shooting, with an efficient field goal percentage of 49.3 percent and a three-point percentage of 38 percent. Lillard is one of the best-contested shooters in the league and has expanded his range from three. He can make shots under pressure at the end of games. In the playoffs, though, the Lakers are going to make Lillard work for all his points.

The Lakers have lengthy tall defenders like Danny Green, LeBron James, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Alex Caruso, and Kyle Kuzma to guard Lillard at the perimeter. The Lakers are going to be double-teaming Lillard a lot this series and forcing other players to beat them. Green has a defensive rating of 106 to go along with 1.3 steals per game. Green is good at putting defensive pressure on his matchup and making them work for each basket. James has a defensive rating of 103.6 to go along with 1.2 steals per game. Even though he is not the same defender as he was in his prime, he still plays statement defense when he needs to. He has spurts where he looks like the best defender in the league. At the end of games, it is most likely that James guards Lillard. Pope and Kuzma are solid defenders, but they don't play good defense consistently. Caruso is a good on-ball defender and he is able to spark a fast break with his ability to steal the ball. He is a clutch defender and has won the Lakers some games with his end of the game defense. He has a defensive rating of 101 to go along with 1 steal per game.

For the Blazers to extend the series they will need CJ McCollum to be a second scorer who can average 25 points per game. McCollum has a fractured back but that has not slowed him down. He has been averaging 20 points per game, 5.3 assists per game, and 5.4 rebounds per game in the bubble. McCollum has been thriving in Iso situations and has been able to create his own shot from inside, mid-range, and three-point range.

In this series, the Lakers need to find their offense. This is a good series for them to get a rhythm and make shots. They have been one of the worst teams in the bubble on offense, scoring only 106 points per game. James and Davis are always going to show up offensively, but it’s the complementary players that need to step up their game and show up. This is the best series for the Lakers complementary players to step up since the Blazers are weak defensively.

(2) Los Angeles Clippers (49-23) vs (7) Dallas Mavericks (43-32)

 Season Series: Clippers won series 3-0

November 26: Clippers won 114-99

January 21: Clippers won 110-107

August 6: Clippers won 126-111

Prediction: Clippers win series 4-2

Key Matchup: Kawhi Leonard vs Luka Dončić

 The Mavericks got the worst first-round matchup they could have gotten. They don't match up well against the Los Angeles Clippers. The Mavericks are a one-sided team that relies on their offense, while the Clippers are a two-way team that gets the job done on both ends of the floor. The Clippers rank 2nd in offense with 113.8 points per game per 100 possessions and rank 5th in defense allowing 107.5 points per game per 100 possessions, while the Mavericks rank first in offense scoring 116.6 points per game per 100 possessions and rank 18th in defense with allowing 111.7 points per game per 100 possessions. The Mavericks are the soundest offensive team and commit the fewest turnovers in the league. They commit only 12.1 turnovers per game. This is a benefit when they face the Clippers who are good at turning their defense into offense. The Clippers' fast breakpoints will be reduced with the Mavericks' lack of turnovers.

The Clippers should be able to shut down the Mavs’ offense with all the perimeter defenders they have. They have two of the best two-way players in the league and very few players in their lineup are defensive liabilities. They have Patrick Beverley, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Montrezl Harrell, and Marcus Morris who can all guard. Dončić is still going to score, but the Clippers have the defense to make him struggle. He can create space on the offensive end with his step-back jump shot from mid-range and three-point range. He is also crafty when he drives to the rim and is one of the best passers in the league. As a sophomore in the NBA, he is averaging 28.8 points per game, 8.8 assists per game, and 9.4 rebounds per game. He has an efficient field goal percentage of 46.3 percent and is shooting 31.6 percent from three. In three matchups against the Clippers, Dončić is averaging 29 points per game, 7 assists per game, and 7 rebounds per game. He shot 40.6 from the field and 23.7 from three. He has been struggling against the Clippers’ elite defense and has turned the ball over 5 times per game which is higher than his season average.

 The Clippers shouldn't double-team Dončić; instead, they should go one-on-one defense with him. The Mavericks will become a dangerous team if they double-team Dončić and leave shooters wide open. They rank second in three-pointers made and three-pointers attempted. They attempt 41.1 three-pointers per game and make 15 per game. They rank 10th in three-point shooting having a percentage of 36.7. They have J. J. Barea, Trey Burke, Seth Curry, Tim Hardaway Jr., Delon Wright, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, and Kristaps Porziņģis. These are all lethal shooters who will knock down threes if left wide open.

The Clippers on the offensive end are going to be tough for the Mavericks to stop. The Mavs don't have a defender who is going to stop Leonard from getting to his spots and making tough jump shots. Leonard elevates his game in the playoffs to a whole other level. Leonard can take whatever the defense gives him. If the Mavericks double-team Leonard, the Clippers still have many scorers. Leonard has improved his passing out of double teams and has become more of a playmaker. He is averaging a career-high 5 assists per game. Leonard has so many options to pass to on offense if he gets double-teamed. Patrick Beverley, Paul George, Landry Shamet, Lou Williams, JaMychal Green, Marcus Morris, and Ivica Zubac can all make shots. The Clippers can match the Mavericks with three-point shooting. The Clippers rank 13th in three-pointers made making 12.4 per game and rank 16th in attempts at 33.4 per game. They are one of the most efficient teams from three as they make them with fewer attempts. They are shooting 37.1 percent which ranks 6th in the league, ranking higher than the Mavericks. They have Patrick Beverley, Reggie Jackson, Kawhi Leonard, Landry Shamet, Lou Williams, Paul George, JaMychal Green, Marcus Morris, and Patrick Patterson who are all efficient from three.

Paul George is a perfect sidekick beside Leonard. He gets it done on both ends of the floor. He is an elite defender and teams will struggle to score on George and Leonard. George is also an elite offensive player. He can shoot from three and mid-range. This is the deepest team that George has ever played for and there will be less pressure on him to score. He can focus now on the best part of his game which is being an elite defender.

Lou Williams is an elite scorer off the bench. He can draw fouls, make plays, and create shots for himself. Williams is currently averaging 18.2 points per game and 5.6 assists per game. He is shooting 41.8 percent from the field and shooting 35 percent from three.

Montrezl Harrell is very physical on the offensive end and grabs rebounds. He is able to score inside. He is averaging 18.6 points per game and 7 rebounds per game off the bench in 27.8 minutes. He is efficient, shooting 58 percent from the field.

For the Mavericks to have a chance to upset and knock out the title favorites, Porziņģis needs to be assertive and dominant on the offensive and defensive end. During most of the season, Porziņģis has been inconsistent, but he has been consistent in the bubble. Porziņģis has looked like he fully recovered from his torn acl and has returned to his form from pre-injury. In the bubble, Porziņģis is averaging 30.5 points per game, 9.5 rebounds per game, and 1.5 blocks per game. He has become more aggressive and has been in the post more often. He has an efficient shooting percentage from the field of 48.2 and a three-point percentage of 35.8 percent which is good for a big. He was able to land on the NBA All-Bubble Second Team. The Mavericks have struggled to close games in the finals minutes and need to improve on that.

(3) Denver Nuggets (46-27) vs (6) Utah Jazz (44-28)

Season Series: Nuggets won series 3-0

January 30: Nuggets won 106-100

February 5: Nuggets won 98-95

August 8: Nuggets won 134-132

Prediction: Nuggets win series 4-2

Key Matchup: Nikola Jokić vs Rudy Gobert

This is going to be a tough series for the Utah Jazz. Both teams have injuries. The Jazz are going to be missing some players. Bojan Bogdanović is out after having wrist surgery, Ed Davis is out with a knee injury, and Mike Conley Jr. will miss a few games because of the birth of his newborn child. The Nuggets are missing Will Barton who is out indefinitely and Gary Harris, who still may return at some point in the series. For the Nuggets these injuries don't hurt as much as the Jazz’s injuries hurt them. The Nuggets have a deep bench, and with a next-man-up mentality, players off the bench can step up and replace the injured players.

The Denver Nuggets rank 5th in offensive rating scoring 113 points per game per 100 possessions and 16th in defensive rating allowing 110.8 points per game per 100 possessions, while the Jazz rank 10th in offensive rating scoring 112.1 points per game per 100 possessions and 13th in defensive rating allowing 109.8 points per game 100 possessions. The Jazz are going to have to win this series with their defense. They are still a good offensive team but will not outscore the Nuggets. The Nuggets have a deeper offensive team than the Jazz. They have 6 players in double figures while the Jazz has only 4.

The Jazz are missing the 20 points per game and the floor spacing that Bogdanović gave them. In this series, Donovan Mitchell has to play like a superstar and be more consistent. He is the only player on the Jazz that can get a bucket when needed and be that go-to scorer. He is currently averaging 21.7 points per game, 5 assists per game, and 4.7 rebounds per game in the bubble. He is shooting 42 percent from the field and 40 percent from three. Even though he has been making his threes at a high percentage, the Jazz need him to take fewer threes. He is attempting 7.5 three-pointers per game, but he is at his best when he takes the ball to the rim. Mitchell showed flashes of being a great go-to scorer in the third game against the Nuggets that went to double overtime. He was hitting tough clutch shots. Mitchell has improved his playmaking. He is getting more players involved on the offensive end.

In this series, Gobert needs to be able to guard Jokić. In the season series, Jokić has dominated Gobert. Jokić has averaged 29.3 points per game, 9 assists per game, 12 rebounds per game, and 2.6 steals per game in 39 minutes against the Jazz. He is shooting 56.2 percent from the field and 27.8 percent from three. Gobert needs to able to put pressure on Jokić when he plays on the perimeter and shoots from mid-range and three-point range. Jokić also has elite footwork in the post and Gobert has struggled to guard it.

(4) Houston Rockets (44-28) vs (5) Oklahoma City Thunder (44-28)

Season Series: Thunder won series 2-1

October 28: Houston won 116-112

January 9: Thunder won 113-92

January 20: Thunder won 112-107

Prediction: Thunder win series 4-3

Key Matchup: James Harden vs Chris Paul

This series can go either way as Oklahoma City Thunder match up well against the Houston Rockets. Each team has their own style of play. The Rockets like to play fast and have a small ball line-up, while the Thunder are a defensive-oriented team and have a big lineup. The Thunder have no injuries, while the Rockets have their superstar point guard Russell Westbrook missing time due to strained quadriceps.

The Rockets rank 6th in offensive rating by scoring 112.9 points per game per 100 possessions and 15th in defensive rating with allowing 110.4 points per game per 100 possessions, while the Thunder rank 17th in offensive rating scoring 110.4 points per game per 100 possessions and 7th in defensive rating allowing 108.6 points per game per 100 possessions. The Rockets are not a good defensive team during some spurts in the game but become aggressive towards the end of games by forcing turnovers and contesting shots.

In this series, the Rockets have the advantage of three-pointers. The Rockets are an aggressive three-point shooting team. They take a lot of threes and make a lot of them. They lead the league in three-point attempts at 45.3 per game and makes at 15.6 per game. They also have a three-point frequency of 50.1 meaning half of their offense is taking three-pointers. The Thunder rank 27th in three-point makes at 10.7 per game and three-point attempts at 30.1 per game. If the Rockets make their threes, the Thunder are in trouble.

The Rockets play style is not proven in the playoffs as this is the first time a playoff team has a very small line-up. The Thunder have a more conducive playstyle to the playoffs. The Thunder are a better team, sounder in the half-court offense. The Thunder are not as turnover prone as the Rockets. They rank 6th in turnovers with 13 per game while the Rockets rank 17th with 14.2 per game. If Thunder turn the ball over in this series, it will allow the Rockets to play to their strength which is to score in the transition from three and inside. On offense, it will be a challenge for the Thunder on the perimeter but if they are able to get past the wing defenders, they will be able to score inside with ease, as the Rockets have no rim protector.

The Thunder have a balanced offense. They have Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Dennis Schröder, and Danilo Gallinari who are all double-digit scorers.

Chris Paul is averaging 17.6 points per game and 6.7 assists per game. He is able to get to his spots from inside, mid-range, and three-point range and create off the dribble. He is shooting an efficient 48.9 percent from the field and 36.5 percent from three. He is also a leader on the offensive end and can create for others. He thrives in the half-court offense and plays poised and patient.

Dennis Schröder is an elite scorer off the bench and is one of the best bench players in the league. He is averaging 18.9 points per game and 4.0 assists per game. He is a shoot-first player but is also a decent playmaker. He is able to shoot from the inside, mid-range, and three-point range. He gives the Thunder lineup the flexibility to run three-ball handlers at the end of the game where Chris Paul is the point guard, Schröder is the shooting guard, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the small forward.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 19 points per game. He is shooting an efficient 47.1 percent from three and 34.7 percent from three. He uses his length to score inside. He is tough for players to deal with when he drives to the rim. He can also shoot threes in catch and shoot scenarios and off the dribble.

Danilo Gallinari is averaging 18.7 points per game. He is a stretch four who can space the floor by shooting threes. He creates the spacing for the Thunder guards and Steven Adams, giving them space to operate inside. His specialty is three-point shooting, but he can also take the ball to the rim when a defender closes out on him. He is one of the best three-point shooters in the league shooting 40.5 percent from three, ranking him 19th in the league in three-point percentage.

Even though the Rockets rank higher with rebounding, they traded Capela who was grabbing 13.8 rebounds per game. In addition, the Rockets don't have a true center and they are also missing their best rebounder for some of the series, Russell Westbrook, who averages 7.9 rebounds per game. The Rockets don’t have the size, with the tallest player being Robert Covington at 6 foot 8. Steven Adams should and must dominate on the glass to neutralize the Rockets small ball. He is currently averaging 9.3 rebounds per game with 3.3 of them being offensive rebounds and 6 of them being defensive rebounds. This ranks Adams 19th in rebounding and 7th in offensive rebounds. The Thunder are going to be getting a lot of second-chance points and need to cash in on them. If Adams is not rebounding in this series, it will be a challenge for him to stay on the floor. He will have to guard the perimeter, but his advantage with rebounding can neutralize that.

The Thunder has many defenders to shut down the Rockets' high-octane offense. The Thunder rank 3rd in opponent three-point percentage with opponents shooting only 34 percent from three. The Thunder have Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, André Roberson, and Luguentz Dort, who are all elite perimeter defenders who will see time guarding Harden. This season Harden has struggled against the Thunder. He has averaged 28.7 points per game, 5.3 assists per game, and 5 rebounds per game in the three matchups against the Thunder. He has been inefficient from the field shooting 32.8 percent and from three-point range shooting 16.5 percent. Harden shot a total of 13 free throws per game which is where he got most of his points against the Thunder, but he can't rely on free throws in the playoffs with it being a more physical game and refs calling fewer free throws. Harden is an elite scorer, but the Thunder will make it tough on him and make him work for every basket. Harden at times tends to take a lot of step-back threes instead of taking it to the rim. He has attempted 13.3 three-pointers per game in this matchup. Chris Paul is a high IQ player and as Harden`s former teammate he knows his tendencies and style of play, and he will be able to contain him. With everything going through Harden on offense, he needs to figure out this matchup. Harden needs to be able to create shots for himself and others. This is the most rest Harden has gotten into the playoffs and he should be ready.