A New Normal?

The Novel Corona Virus - Covid 19 - has come with a bang! The pretender has become "the" contender !! Our world has changed, possibly forever !!!.....

The above statements are some of many reactions to the onset of this one-of-a-kind, once-in-a-generation influenza. In January we watched on TV how China had the onset of this virus in some hitherto not-so-popular 'Wuhan' city. It looked like a storm in a tea-cup. Not much in there to the average joe on the streets of Lagos, Milan, Capetown, Dundee, London- take your pick. Then the virus spread to Europe, the United States of America, Africa and most of the world. The rest is ... history being played out... in slow motion at the moment..! Now business is reeling around the world; most sports, entertainment, highstreet retail, SMEs, general commerce entities and even governments are processing how to deal with what the hell is going on right now... Buzz words are flying around; do we have a new normal?

I argue that we do not have a new normal. Rather, the world is enduring an improbable but obvious return to a cycle that played out in the early 1900s- The Spanish Flu of 1918. The Spanish Flu started in the US at some military base between January/March of 1918. It manifested in two waves (we are largely yet to see wave 2...and pray it stays this way) wherein between 17 to 50 million lives were lost with infection of up to 500 million people world-wide. The use of face masks, closing of schools, shops, and restaurants, placing restrictions on transportation; mandating social distancing, and banning public gatherings- WERE THE NORM at the time. Yes, Netflix (and Money Heist) did not exist then but we get the drift. Generally speaking, there is nothing new under the sun.

What many today refer to as this 'New Normal' is actually the quest for adaptability, in my own opinion. Borrowing from the Charles Darwin quote, it is not necessarily the strongest businesses or the most intelligent that shall survive the attendant crises (Financial, Economic, Socio-cultural ramifications et al) but the most adaptable to change. People want to know how to navigate the immediate to long term future, they do not necessarily like change, i suspect. Rather they want to be told, they want to be served the next prescription. E.g For bakers, start diversifying your business model into baking of bread et al; some may start baking bread till the next crisis. Adaptability, on the other hand, is something that should be a culture. In order to underscore this we shall examine a case study of two companies which have both existed at the time of the Spanish Flu and the novel Corona Virus: AT&T and General Electric.

AT&T and General Electric (GE) were founded in the 19th century. Recall that Barings Bank which collapsed in 1995 was founded in 18th Century. Therefore, I do not suggest that longevity of business alone is an indicator of adaptability culture in a company. However, a commitment to several iterations of the business proposition in order to achieve value to share and stakeholders is more like it for me.

AT&T gave us the modern day telephone (Alexander Graham Bell). The company grew into such a dominant force that by 1984 American Antitrust laws accounted for a break-up of the company into several successor companies . The business model evolved such that the company has endured its own fair share of failures, mergers, acquisitions and innovations. It now stands as number 9 in the Fortune 500 Rankings (2019). The company may also be somewhat unrecognisable from what was founded to be. Today, AT&T sees itself as "a modern media company...", involved in "..connectivity, technology, entertainment, news, advertising and more..". Who would have thought HBO would have its nest at AT&T today (via WarnerMedia)?

General Electric (GE) is a classic company. Its mission statement embodies the essence of change itself as follows: "..to usher in the next industrial era and to build, move, power, and cure the world..". At formation in the late 19th century, the founders of the companies envisaged lighting solutions primarily- the lamp, electric bulb, electricity. Little did they know that today GE will be working across Aviation, Finance, Healthcare, Transportation, Oil & Gas, Energy, Finance, Appliance and lighting. Again, this has been achieved through a mixture of acquisitions, mergers, divestitures, innovations and so on. It now stands as number 21 in the Fortune 500 Rankings (2019). However it appears that a mixture of the right adaptibility culture and right leadership has landed it as a much relevant corporation internationally, even today.

Within the Nigerian context I have identified one company which has managed to evolve with the times- Dangote.

Burnaboy, a world-famous African Giant and recording artist sang the following lyrics in honour of Dangote's adaptability: "Dangote, Dangote, Dangote still dey find money o.....I no dey, I no dey.......I no dey sleep on the money o....Who I be?....Who I be?.....Wey make I no go find money o.....I no dey send anybody o......Me I dey hustle gan gan". The lyrics seem to acknowledge the ability of the company to "make money". In the last 4 decades, a little known commodity trading business has evolved into huge conglomerate involved in Cement manufacture and distributions, Sugar, Salt, Food seasoning, Tomato paste, Crude oil refining, Petrochemicals, Food & Beverages, Logistics, Real Estate and much more. From what sector of the economy is the company deriving and creating value for its share and stakeholders? What are they mostly known for? How about we give them some credit for their adaptability?

So, the bad news is, there is no new normal! Rather we need to examine our suitability for adaptability. Are we happy to hang on to the business models handed down by our forefathers? Are we ready to sink with the 'that's all we know' ship? You run a restaurant and had no delivery service or perhaps your delivery service was totally unstructured. Are you prepared to lose your entire livelihood by waiting till September for any real sign of normal business volumes? Are you waiting for a government bail-out or are you leveraging on existing technologies? IN THE SAME MARKET, Walmart has just hired 200,000 people and paid bonuses in excess of $180 million; in the same market Microsoft has recorded 2 years of business growth in 2 months on some of its product lines; in the same market companies are cutting CAPEX, shutting down operations and going bust. If these companies had '2020 hindsight' (pardon the pun) would some of them have invested perhaps in some random spin-off for occasions such as this?

Local, National and Governmental PESTEL factors should be mapped regularly so that adjustments can be made as required. PESTEL factors are the Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Legal/ Regulatory factors that impact on the Business Context. It is important to have a line of sight on the spectrum of local to international factors that impact upon the business context. Current political factors could be government policies to deal with the current pandemic. Restrictions on interstate movement have come into place in some countries, while international movement is broadly restricted at the moment. The level of political stability also influences the decision making space. The price of oil has been the single largest economic influence as a result of the pandemic aftershock. The recent supply glut and demand destruction for oil have resulted in government and corporate budget cuts. Many economies are destined for recession right now. Socio-cultural factors are several however the most important at the moment is the world's appetite for social media. Microsoft and Zoom are two businesses which may be more than glad that they have business models that are well suited to a socially/ physically distant society. With respect to Technology, Netflix has just surpased 90 million views in the first 4 weeks of its movie- Extraction release. This is a company which started as a video rentals company and then evolved into distribution, streaming and then production. What a bet!! With respect to Environmental factors, the world has recorded arguably about 8% drop in global warming green house gas emissions since lockdowns began around the world. This provides signals to businesses on possibilities for the future. One of the biggest conundrums is the legal perspective to 'acts of God' events where a pandemic may or may not represent an act of God- depending on legal drafting and interpretations. It is conceivable that some lawyers have spared their businesses exposure and unlimited liability by inserting clauses that pre-empt such pandemic events. The practice of mapping our business environment constantly gives us a chance to pre-empt adverse events and mitigate potential risks. They also allow us to take advantage of opportunities. Mexico is currently enjoying hedges of around $40/barrel of oil because it has long practiced Oil price hedging- as a way to guarantee some level of income on its oil production. Winners and losers. Be on the winning side.

SWOT (as an adaptation tool) involves assessing to discover the key internal strengths (such as people, processes, value chain) and seeking to maximize them. The internal weaknesses must equaly be identified and managed as best as possible. External opportunities must be maximized while external threats must be mitigated.

I need to state, for the avoidance of doubt, that I am not implying that the companies in the above deck (Kodak & Blackberry) are bound to go out of business any time soon. On the contrary, many businesses have faced downturns and upturns in their business cycles; both companies have the same opportunity and are on different paths to find that form. To the best of my knowledge these two businesses are alive and well, relevant and kicking. However, these companies have been known to have missed a couple of glaring opportunities, buckled under obvious threats, overlooked some key weaknesses and perhaps not leveraged their strengths.

Once upon a time, you could not take a picture or talk about pictures without mentioning the word- Kodak. Today, photography is digital and the Kodak business has never been the same. Blackberry was once upon a time arguably the most secure and trendy mainstream phone on the market. Its unique BBM (Blackberry Messenger) was the choice chat platform for work and play. Today, their phones are in search of soul and the phone business is a shadow of a ghost of its former glory. The world has not seen its first recession in this current crisis, neither will this be the last. the world economy will rebound and will still face an era of unparalleled prosperity. To stay ahead of the curve, to stay relevant and 'secure the bag' for the future it is important for businesses to get the SWOT right.

If there is one dimension to change upon which I have not quite contemplated, it is the dark side....the Darth Vader of change: Grief..!!! At a future time, I intend to elaborate upon this concept as it relates to a culture of change and how organizations plan to reintegrate the workforce with 'normal life' as the corona virus and its feedback effects recede from the global economy. However I must touch on this subject lightly as it provides, for me, an adequate frame with which to encapsulate the adaptability quotient we need in these tragic times.

This change, this dark change- Covid 19 (and its attendant lifestyle modifications) has come at great collateral cost which will, in my opinion leave millions of people with Post Traumatic Stress Disorders. Imagine being told in the 21st century that your movement is being curtailed- no dog walks, no strolls, curfews in some parts of the world, arrests for not wearing face masks, police being spat on by infected private citizens, healthcare professionals and colleagues dying of the disease, healthcare professionals working in ground-zero hospitals where hundreds are pronounced dead daily. To underscore, on the 26th of April 2020, a New York Emergency Room Doctor committed suicide. The Washington Post reports her father noting that: "She tried to do her job, and it killed her". He further added: “Make sure she’s praised as a hero, because she was. She’s a casualty just as much as anyone else who has died.”. The said doctor (Dr. LB) had contracted the corona virus, recovered and then tried to return to work. The hospital told her to return home instead. I cannot imagine the trauma that she had been through. However, it is instructive to note that a possible trigger was the instruction of the hospital that she should return home- without some form of debriefing. I'm not a psychologist- just a business person trying to make sense of the little information available.

Kubler-Ross argues in her work that people go through 5 stages of grief or ...accepting change, change obviously which is perceived to be detrimental to oneself. People are losing businesses, livelihoods, working relationships of over 20/30/40 years in some cases. Colleagues with whome some of us sat shoulder to shoulder are dead! Famous photographers, Emirs, Entertainers, Legends, anyone!!! Some families have lost 2 or 3 members!!! This is collateral damage. Will the workplace ever be the same again? Can productive activity be switched on by the flip of a button? Or do we need corporate environments to acknowledge, internalize and process this?

Denial, the first stage involves an immediate reaction coming from a place of fear, shock and possibly confusion. The adrenaline rush is still there, the smoke is yet to clear. You just lost the job you loved or the loved one without whom you cannot live. Stage 2- Anger begins to set in. What a horribe world we live in! How on earth could he/ she fire someone who has added so much value to the business? How do we say goodbye to our national airline which has been in existence since 1934- frustration and real, raw anger. Depression- Stage 3: The lowest of lows. Lost the fight, time for flight ! In this stage, there is little energy to do much . Bargaining- Stage 4 - is the stage where we try to reconcile with what has just happened and engage the situation; sometimes finding help along the way after sharing with others or receiving some intervention. Stage 5- Acceptance is the place where we come to terms with the change and decide to move on. Stage 6- Finding Meaning- as introduced by David Kessler is the point at which we try to find a new Raison d'etre for life after a major PTSD event, loss or grief.

There is a psychological element to adaptability which may rely less on the amount of 'ginger' we have as individuals. I believe this is the point where Psychologists, Human Resources and Performance Management experts need to step in to prioritise and facilitate processes that attend to the PTSD element ocassioned by the onset of the corona virus. The new normal we seek, is probably more of a quest for the holy grail to surviving in the short to medium term and then thriving in the future. Rather than focus on 'resting in a new normal' let us pay more attention to our business context, glean and map the patterns for necessary adjustments. Let us understand truly our strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and strengths and thereafter set plans in motion to maximize and mitigate as required. Finally, there is a dark dimension to the change we are experiencing- occasioned by collateral damage in life, jobs and property. It is important that we examine the psychological dimensions as businesses by making mental health discussions a comfortable and mainstream topic in the workplace- especially now. Once we unlock these limits, we find meaning and are able to fully actualize our adaptability potentials.

Last but not least, please partner and support ideas generation and research capacity by getting involved with my project: The SEER Project. Get in touch!