New Research on Healthspan and Lifespan

A recent paper by Armin Garmany and Andre Terzic reviews Global Healthspan-Lifespan Gaps Among 183 World Health Organization Member States. This study was done from January through May 2024 and had data that represented two decades of longitudinal follow-up for 183 World Health Organization countries..

Quick Summary of Findings

• Over the last 20 years, healthspan-lifespan gap has widened globally by 9.6 years.
• Women healthspan-lifespan gap grew 2.4 years wider than men
• Healthspan-lifespan gaps were positively associated with the burden of noncommunicable diseases and total morbidity, and negatively with mortality.
• The United States ranks last in the healthspan-lifespan gap (12.4 years) - underpinned by a rise in noncommunicable diseases.

Graphics of Last 20 Years

The graphics shown above demonstrate the trend over the last 20+ years from two different sources and data sets. The graphic on the left is the longitudinal analysis of WHO nations, where the lifespan-healthspan gap has grown from 8.5 to 9.6 years on average. The graphic on the right is from a Wall Street Journal article is specific to the United States. This gap has grown from 10.8 to 12.7 years from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

To put a finer point on where the United States stands against peer nations, the graphic below really shows how much longer (12.4 years) and at a greater propensity Americans live with a disability (about 15000 per 100,000 persons). In other words, the last 12 years (on average) are not living life at our fullest potential.

Law of Averages

Based on the average lifespan of 77, healthy fulfilling living last to 65 (age of retirement for most Americans). Interestingly, another study shows that we age non-linearly with major markers at the age of 44 and 60. So, the golden age may not be so golden.

Have We Hit Peak Lifespan?

According to this research from October (Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first century) from S. Jay Olshansky, Ph.D. et al., wealthy nations might have reached a life expectancy limit. Per this article from StatNews,

Global life expectancy has soared from 30 years in 1870 to 71 years in 2021, according to Our World in Data, an online scientific publication. The reasons for the increase are many, including vaccines, antibiotics, clean water, sanitation, and improvements in health care, particularly for young children.

The researchers found that since 1990, hardly any of the populations studied saw a life expectancy increase of three years per decade, the rate needed for radical life extension — with the exceptions of Hong Kong during the 1990s and South Korea this century. In all cases, the rate of life expectancy increase dipped over time. 

Best Case Scenario on Longevity

To get a sense of the best-case current scenario, Olshansky and colleagues took the lowest death rates recorded in 2019 across the world in different age groups and created a composite life table. They found that life expectancy was around 89 years for women and 83 years for men, numbers that Olshansky said represent a soft limit on lifespan.

Olshansky's future studies will be on healthspan.

His team is also interested in estimating how long people would live without the benefits of modern medicine to understand, as he puts it, how much time medicine and public health have “manufactured.”

The Man Testing the Limits on Human Longevity

It many be a very small sample size (N of 1), but the story of Bryan Johnson in this article (The Man Who Thinks He Can Live Forever). His approach will certainly be interesting to watch and challenge the thinking of the peak lifespan study. Although, the amount of discipline to get a 46 year old's organs to look and act like 18-year old organs will likely not have many willing to sign up for this radical approach.

• 111 pills every day
• Strict diet
• Exercise routine
• Infrared and red light therapy device
• Multiple biological measurements

More details can be found in the aforementioned article.

Joseph W. Sunderman is an Intelligence Analyst/Strategist that is a student of understanding the Current State of the US Health and its impact for the next decade. I developed the thesis over several months for Directions Research Group.  Upon completion of boiling the ocean on the topic and created an impeccable deliverable, which can be found in my project section of my LinkedIn page.

 In the past, Joe spent seven years at medical device giant Ethicon (division of Johnson & Johnson) with the most recent role as US Regional Manager of Strategic Insights and Pricing.  In his seven years at JNJ, he received recognition for his servant leadership, where he was a stand out in performance by being a top 10% recipient of Encore and Inspire Awards over multiple years.  Dozens and dozens of accolades from contributors to senior leaders for his collaborative work.  Prior to Ethicon, Joe has had a wide variety of experiences in medical claims, banking, publishing, and retail.  He began his career at Schaeffer's Investment Research as a financial analyst, where he was ranked by Bridge Information Systems as one of the top 10 market analysts for three straight years for his commentary and stock picks found in Schaeffer's Daily Bulletin. Joe has been published in the Market Pulse Journal and Chartpoint and his market comments have been printed in the USA Today, Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Investor's Business Daily, Dow Jones News Wire, and Reuters. Also, Joe has made appearances on Bloomberg television.