Next, Cue the Robots

"Robots and software don’t take jobs. Humans give them away. Technology simply automates tasks. It’s a human’s decision if a job evaporates. And we can make different decisions.” The Next Rules of Work, page 15

The announcement of Elon Musk’s TeslaBot ("Optimus," seemingly channeling the Transformers) has catapulted robots into the news cycle. Typical for Musk, he has temporarily sucked the oxygen out of the room for other robotics initiatives. Though his demo didn’t come close to the finely-tuned product-announcement kabuki of Steve Jobs (who sometimes “told the truth prematurely”), Musk could debut a new toothbrush (autonomous!) and dominate the headlines.

Some have championed Musk’s announcement with breathless hyperbole, embracing his rhetoric claiming to usher in a new age. Some (usually engineers) simply treat robot design as a series of problems to solve, without examining the impact on society and economies. Robotics guru Andrea Keay calls it “a perpetual betabot.” TechCrunch calls it "Sub-Optimus." Some believe it’s the actual singularity mentioned by Ray Kurzweil. And some have embraced Musk’s vision of thousands of Tesla Bots in the company’s own factories as fact, and fueled yet more speculation about robots displacing jobs.

A lot of “robot jobpocalypse” stories are coming in the near future. So I’d like to offer an update to the Robots overview in Next Rules. A quick review:

• Humans have always worried (and often rightly) that technology would take their livelihoods, most famously with the self-named Luddites who smashed weaving looms in England in the 1700s.
• As so often in history, the main driver of robot automation is a lack of workers (or, at least, cheap workers). Today that gap is catalyzed in part by the great reset and the great mismatch. Robots look a lot more viable when you can’t hire enough humans.
• The world is already buying lots of robots, the vast majority for manufacturing. American companies spent about $2 billion for almost 40,000 robots in 2021, about on par with the market in 2017.
• As so often in history, the real impact on society and economies isn’t the robots. It’s the decisions that robot owners make. If everyone whose work was impacted by a robot had new, better-paying work as a result, then by all means, bring on the robots.

 But that isn’t often what happens.

Too often the headlines simply accept automation as progress, without making it clear that these are economic decisions by businesses intent on making a profit. The easiest profits come from finding something people are already spending money on (like fry cooks and baristas), and doing it more cheaply. As in, more cheaply than humans. And then, who needs those humans?

The person most often associated with The Rise of the Robots is Martin Ford, the author of said book. Martin does a great job of deconstructing the potential path of robot automation — hence his subtitle, “Technology and the threat of a jobless future.” But even the dynamics Martin points out are based on decisions that humans make. Robots only take jobs if humans decide they don’t want to keep the displaced humans on the payroll. And so far, humans are doing a pretty good job of keeping ahead.

I don’t think I’m showing a lack of imagination here: The 2,000 science fiction books in my basement from an introverted youth provide plenty of rocket fuel for our robotic future. Sure, someday Tesla may have thousands of Tesla Bots building millions of Tesla Bots. (I’ll explore this in an upcoming article, “Will We Love a Trillion Robots?”) But where Musk’s hyperbole fails the test of history is when he channels his inner John Maynard Keynes, contending that a gazillion robots will free up millions of humans for a life of leisure. (He’s previously said that AI will make jobs irrelevant.)

We already have far more technology than previous generations ever envisioned. How much more leisure do you have than your grandparents did?

One of the great errors that Keynes and Musk et al make is that we haven’t updated our social agreements about work. Why would anyone argue with quiet quitting, or if young people didn’t want to work quite as hard as their grandparents did? This is what automation was supposed to do: Make it possible to work less, yet still have a meaningful lifestyle.

What should we do Next?

• We shouldn't worry about a massive robot-driven jobpocalypse any time soon.
• However… do think about the quiet displacement that’s already occurring in industries like manufacturing, and don’t automatically accept the line that they’re always “cobots” functioning alongside people. Employers displacing workers with technology must invest in training and development so those workers can stay ahead of the robots.
• I’m sometimes accused of sounding like “the word police.” But I’d hope you would question any language that makes our technology our equals, such as calling a robot or software “a coworker.” Every time we elevate our technology, we diminish humans. I don’t “partner” with a pen. But it comes in pretty handy when I need a tool.

Next, Updates:

• The U.S. Federal Reserve (affectionately known as The Fed) continues to hammer U.S. employment with rate hikes. But employment remains strong. And Wall Street isn't pleased. How crazy is it that we have an economic dynamic that penalizes people for having jobs? Why not just levy a temporary consumption tax to cool spending for six months? Not to generate government revenue, but to drive a cooling-off period for consumer spending.
• An upcoming column will focus on books related to the future of work. What are some of your favorites? You can email us at admin@charrette.us

-gB

Gary A. Bolles

I’m the author of The Next Rules of Work: The mindset, skillset, and toolset to lead your organization through uncertainty. I’m also the adjunct Chair for the Future of Work for Singularity Group. I have over 1.1 million learners for my courses on LinkedIn Learning. I'm a partner in the consulting firm Charrette LLC. I’m the co-founder of eParachute.com. I'm an original founder of SoCap, and the former editorial director of 6 tech magazines. Learn more at gbolles.com