Nexus 23 agenda, innovation adoption, Burn Bag, DOT, and DIU
Applied Intuition
Accelerating the world’s adoption of safe and intelligent machines
The Nexus Newsletter
Welcome back to The Nexus Newsletter. This edition includes updates from our last two email editions - to receive updates as soon as they go live, make sure you subscribe to the email edition here.
This edition includes:
We are thrilled to announce an action-packed agenda for Nexus 23! The two-day thought leadership symposium will feature fireside chats with senior leaders and experts like Michèle Flournoy, Marc Andreessen, Ellen Lord, Dr. Mark Esper, and Rep. Rob Wittman, and engaging panel discussions, including:
See the full schedule of panels, fireside chats, networking events, and more at the link below.
The Department of Defense does not have an innovation problem - it has an innovation adoption program. With that in mind, the Atlantic Council Commission on Defense Innovation Adoption recently published its interim report. The interim report lays out a series of ten recommendations for Congress and the Pentagon to address the innovation adoption problem in the Department of Defense:
We are proud to serve on the commission alongside other leading voices from government, academia, and industry.
For more, read a recent op-ed from Commission Director - and Applied Intuition Defense Advisory Board member - Stephen Rodriguez and Program Director Clementine Starling-Daniels . Register for Nexus 23 to hear more about the importance of solving the Department’s innovation adoption challenges.
Our team recently joined The Burn Bag podcast for a discussion on current and future use cases for autonomous systems, roadblocks that complicate rapid and efficient autonomy development, how the Department can accelerate the adoption of private sector innovations, and more.
Senior USDOT officials visit Applied
We recently hosted a delegation of senior officials from the U.S. Department of Transportation, at our Mountain View, California headquarters. The delegation visited Applied to learn more about how virtual testing tools can validate the safety and performance of autonomous vehicles (AVs) and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS).
Mr. Doug Beck, currently Vice President of Apple and Captain in the U.S. Navy Reserve, will take over as Director of DIU, Secretary of Defense Austin announced on April 4. With a long career in tech and nearly 26 years in both reserve and active duty in the U.S. Navy, Mr. Beck seems well-equipped to lead DIU.
In addition to the announcement of a new director, Secretary Austin also announced that DIU will now report directly to the Secretary of Defense. We are strong proponents of this move and believe that it will allow the DOD to take better advantage of the technologies developed through private investments in startups outside of the traditional defense supplier ecosystem. We are excited to learn about Doug’s 90 day assessment and recommendations to Secretary Austin, and see if the DIU charter and mandate change in any way.
We are ardent believers in DIU’s ability to positively impact contracting schedules to accelerate commercial technologies to DOD programs and warfighters. But could they do more to acquire commercial technologies to rapidly field to fill joint gaps if given their own high TRL development budget, and ability to run their own programs?
News we’re reading
Autonomous systems are gaining momentum in the national security space. Below, we’ve pulled key quotes from recent articles of interest, plus brief commentary from Applied Intuition’s government team:
Defense News | US Navy aims to field manned-unmanned fleet within 10 years
By Megan Eckstein, Naval Warfare Reporter, Defense News
Key quote: The U.S. Navy plans to operate a fleet of crewed and unmanned platforms within the next 10 years — an ambitious timeline that will require the service to quickly develop and mature autonomous systems, while ensuring confidence in the technology. [...]
Similarly with unmanned systems, he added, “how do we assure that those — whether it’s in the air, on the surface or in the subsurface — are going to be obedient in terms of what they’re programmed to do in a complex environment? And until we have a full understanding of that level of obedience, then they’re probably going to be tethered to a ship [or] another aircraft.”
Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday made similar remarks to reporters later that day, discussing the potential use of unmanned vessels for resupplying Marines in the Pacific.
“We do see great potential in leveraging unmanned in a lead/follow-like manner … to sustain a force forward. If you think about what we’re doing in the air with Next Generation [Air Dominance], where you would have a quarterback that would be a manned [tactical aircraft] with unmanned as his or her wingmen, same kind of approach,” Gilday said.
Our take: Building trust in autonomous systems is essential. Here, “obedient” seems to be a synonym for “performant” - i.e., that autonomous systems perform according to requirements or other parameters - specifically as it relates to teaming with manned platforms in the sea and sky.
Establishing a robust and broadly-understood certification process for autonomous systems should be a major priority. Employing commercial best practices for autonomy development and testing, including a scenario-based plan to provide traceable, quantitative evidence of autonomy performance, should play a central role in that effort. Additionally, ensuring that pilots and other operators expected to team with autonomous systems are incorporated into the development process for those systems early on is essential to establishing trust across human-machine teams. Commercial best practices such as the definition of narrow operational design domains, or design reference missions, with performance metrics; a DevSecOps platform by which to develop and test iterative software; and a simulation-first approach will be critical to realize Admiral Gilday’s concept and schedule.
Breaking Defense | EXCLUSIVE: Pentagon aims to ‘own the technical baseline’ for AI tech, R&D official says
By Sydney Freedberg Jr., Contributing Editor, Breaking Defense
Key quote: The DoD is well aware it’s playing catch-up to the rapidly advancing private sector in many aspects of AI, acknowledged Maynard Holliday, the Pentagon’s deputy CTO for critical technologies. A big part of the conference is a push, not only to better understand what’s happening on the cutting edge, but how the military can adopt and adapt commercial tech to build AI capabilities it can trust — and control.
“We recognize we need to fast-follow, but we also need to develop military-specific applications of these commercial technologies, and as Under Secretary LaPlante has said in the past, we need to own the technical baseline of these technologies, so that we can have control over their evolution to a militarily specific solution, rather than being vendor-locked and having us beholden to one single vendor to evolve a capability.” [...]
So how can DoD reconcile its desire to own the technical baseline with private industry’s obsession with protecting its intellectual property?
“Great question,” Holliday acknowledged. Part of the solution, he said, is that “we’re going to have to develop our own militarily specific, DoD-specific corpus of data that’s updated with our information, our jargon, so that we can interact with it seamlessly — and that we trust it.”
Our take: We were honored to welcome Mr. Holiday to our Mountain View, California headquarters last fall to discuss ways to enhance warfighter trust in autonomous systems. At the visit, Mr. Holiday said: “Building warfighter trust in autonomous systems is a key priority for OUSD (R&E). Ongoing collaboration between the DOD and innovative commercial companies will prove essential to building trust and promoting principles of responsible AI. As the number of defense autonomy programs expands, the DOD must continue to harness commercial best practices for autonomy development and program design to ensure mission success.”
Recommended by LinkedIn
As the DOD pursues a range of autonomous systems across domains and use cases, it is essential that the Department invests in the infrastructure required for program success. Namely, infrastructure that allows the DOD to collect, manage, and share data across the organization. Effective data management lies at the heart of any modern autonomy development pipeline, but data collection and management has so far been overlooked by DOD autonomy programs. We’re happy to hear that Mr. Holiday recognizes the important role that the enterprise-wide sharing of data can have in enabling the development and deployment of safe, trusted, and effective autonomous systems.
War on the Rocks | Prime Time for Software: Reimagining the Future of Defense Acquisition
By Christine H. Fox and Akash Jain, Palantir Technologies
Key quote: However, because the systems needed to combat higher-tech adversaries will increasingly rely on software-driven digital capabilities — such as data fusion and AI — one should ask: Is the traditional, hardware-centric model of defense acquisition and systems integration always the best model for fielding the most capable military technology that America has to offer?
Given the massive changes wrought by information technology in recent years — and importantly, their corresponding impact on modern warfare — it is worth re-thinking the conventional wisdom that only traditional prime contractors can lead the development and production of all of America’s most consequential defense capabilities. The Defense Department should widen the aperture of what qualifies a company to manage defense acquisition programs and consider including a different kind of leader in the defense industrial enterprise: A prime contractor whose core expertise originates in software, rather than hardware. In other words, a “software prime.”
Our take: Increasingly, the cutting edge capabilities under development are software-defined, not hardware-defined. Autonomy, for example, is first and foremost a software problem. While software is typically not as flashy as hardware, it is often the most complex element of modern capabilities and platforms. The concept of a “software prime” is not a new one; take, for instance, Microsoft’s priming of the Army’s Integrated Visual Augmented System or IVAS. This is a primarily software company delivering a hardware/software capability as the prime. Given our experience working with the DOD as a pure software company, we aren’t sure the DOD is ready to change its acquisition construct to favor software primes. The reality is that hardware companies with software experience that build and test hardware in an software-like manner (the Anduril’s and SpaceX’s of the world) will probably lead the way in changing DOD mindsets on hardware-first vs software-first acquisitions.
General Atomics | GA-ASI Flies MQ-20 Avenger Autonomously Using LEO SATCOM Datalink
By General Atomics
Key quote: On April 6, 2023, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems (GA-ASI) conducted live, tactical, air combat maneuvers using Artificial Intelligence (AI) pilots to control a company-owned MQ-20 Avenger® Unmanned Aircraft System. Collaborative maneuvers between human and AI pilots were conducted using GA-ASI’s Live, Virtual, Constructive (LVC) collaborative combat aircraft (CCA) ecosystem over a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite communication (SATCOM) provider’s IP-based Mission Beyond Line of Sight (BLOS) datalink. The LEO SATCOM connection was also used to rapidly retrain and redeploy AI pilots while the aircraft was airborne, demonstrating GA-ASI’s ability to update AI pilots within minutes.
This marks the first deployment of a LEO SATCOM provider connections running on an operationally relevant unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) platform. [...]
“The flight demonstrated GA-ASI’s unmatched ability to fly autonomy on real, tactically relevant, unmanned combat aerial vehicles,” said GA-ASI Senior Director of Advanced Programs Michael Atwood. “It displayed effective BLOS Command and Control through the collaboration between three defense primes. This showcases our rapidly maturing CCA mission system suite and moves us one step closer to providing this revolutionary capability to the warfighter.”
GA-ASI leveraged its end-to-end CCA ecosystem for the flight that fused third-party capabilities, human-on-the-loop control, and autonomy to enable effective human-machine teaming for 21st century conflicts.
Our take: Congratulations to our friends at General Atomics on this latest milestone in their autonomy development process! Collaboration across a number of different prime contractors, startups, and other players is critical to developing autonomous systems at speed and scale.
By Jon Harper, Managing Editor of Defense Scoop
Key quote: Maj. Gen. Heather Pringle, commander of the Air Force Research Lab, said modeling and simulation tools will help officials explore how the drones could operate both tethered and untethered. [...]
“We’re working on … developing that autonomy, the flexibility to switch back between tethered and untethered. And when you have an unexpected break of your tethering communications, what do you want the autonomy to do? Do you want it to automatically return to base? Do you want it to posture itself to reestablish the connection? So as we’re taking baby steps right now, kind of crawl, walk, run [approach]. We’re working through all those kinds of different things. But we’re putting a framework in place to where you know safety is kind of your number one priority, and then you build on capability from there,” he said.
Our take: We’re thrilled to hear that AFRL supports the use of modeling and simulation tools to explore tethered and untethered operations for CCAs. Testing drone behaviors in an unstructured, virtual environment will allow AFRL to evaluate how CCAs handle a variety of scenarios and execute a range of maneuvers, all in the safety and security of a high-fidelity virtual environment that ensures their manned counterparts are not put at risk.
By Colin Demarest, Networks, Cyber & IT Reporter at Defense News
Key quote: “I think the future of homeland defense is vastly different than what we see today,” he said at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on fiscal 2024 spending. “It’s likely including autonomous platforms, airborne, maritime platforms, unmanned platforms with domain awareness sensors, and effectors that are kinetic and non-kinetic.”
Autonomous and uncrewed systems could linger and observe for extended periods of time, providing VanHerck and his successors a steady feed of information that can then be parsed for signs of foreign aggression. They could also be parked in places considered too risky or complicated for troops to be in-person, extending American defenses.
Our take: We’re glad to see that Gen. VanHerck recognizes the important role that unmanned and autonomous systems play in modern defense. From persistent ISR to enhance situational awareness, to high-risk environments that are too dangerous for exquisite manned platforms to operate, uncrewed systems can fill gaps, increase the effectiveness of manned platforms, provide volume, and present dilemmas for adversaries.
Air & Space Forces Magazine | Collaborative Combat Aircraft Will Join the Air Force Before NGAD
By John A. Tirpak, Editorial Director of Air & Space Forces Magazine
Key quote: The first iterations of Collaborative Combat Aircraft, the drones that will pair with manned platforms, will join the Air Force’s fighter fleet in “the later 2020s,” several years before the Next-Generation Air Dominance fighter, service acquisition chief Andrew Hunter told the House Armed Services tactical aviation panel on March 29. [...]
Lt. Gen. Richard G. Moore Jr., deputy chief of staff for plans and programs, also set the top three missions of the CCAs, in order, as:
Hunter also said the notional number of CCAs will be between 1,000 and 1,500 aircraft.
Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall told the House Appropriations defense panel on March 28 that CCAs could cost between one-half and one-quarter as much as an F-35. [...]
“Ordinarily we provide a requirement to industry, they come back with what we’ve asked for, and we know that it does exactly what we asked. In this case, we’ve asked a question to industry to see what’s possible rather than tell them exactly what we want,” General Moore said.
Our take: Well…at $20-$40M each it makes sense why the Air Force is hesitant to call these platforms attritable. Still, this is roughly in the range that we expect, particularly when it comes to a conflict with an adversary like China, where systems are expected to operate over long distances and face high-end capabilities.
Comments from Air Force leadership on the Hill, at AFA and in this article have demonstrated the Air Force’s commitment and investment in utilizing autonomous systems as the pivot point for force projection against near peer adversaries. At first glance, however, the “notional number” of CCAs seems low - roughly half of the (original) planned F-35 buy across services, and below the Air Force’s total planned order of F-35s over the lifetime of the program. While General Moore and Secretary Hunter stated the intent is for CCAs to augment both F-35 and NGAD deployments, previous Air Force war games have shown success utilizing higher numbers of drones - so the Air Force will need to vastly increase its buy of CCAs.
By Megan Eckstein, Naval Warfare Reporter, Defense News
Key quote: “The 4th Fleet area of operations provides us with an environment best suited to operationalize the concepts Task Force 59 has worked tirelessly to develop to increase our maritime domain awareness capabilities,” Secretary Carlos Del Toro said at the lunchtime speech. [...]
CNO Adm. Mike Gilday told reporters after the event that while the Navy stood up a formal task force in U.S. 5th Fleet to experiment with unmanned and AI technologies alongside regional partners, the Navy chose to try a different command structure here. Rather than create a task force underneath 4th Fleet, this effort will instead incorporate unmanned and AI tech — and the vast information that they’ll collect and analyze for operators — within existing offices at 4th Fleet, such as intelligence, operations, plans and manpower.
By doing this, he said, the Navy is further “normalizing” these advanced technologies.
Our take: Operationalizing the concepts that TF59 has developed in SOUTHCOM is exciting. We’re looking forward to seeing if that includes the contractor-owned, contractor-operated model that TF59 has used to great effect. Integrating autonomous capabilities into existing offices is ultimately a more realistic and effective structure for deployment than standalone task forces made up exclusively of autonomous capabilities.
By John Grady
Key quote: In the immediate future, “you’re going to see a shift to robotics in a big way, Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said. The use of low and slow commercial aerial drones in Ukraine demonstrated unmanned system’s versatility in combat. He expects the United States and China to aggressively explore their use in maritime warfare.
Milley estimated that one-third of the Navy could be unmanned in the not-distant future. [...]
The administration “wanted to get upstream on this” as early as possible on advanced technologies like artificial intelligence and quantum computing as well as unmanned systems, Austin said.
“The department is also accelerating investments in cutting-edge defense capabilities, such as uncrewed systems that can operate on the water, underwater, in the air, and on land. Integrating human-machine teaming, autonomous systems, and resilient networks will make our operations significantly faster, more lethal, and more survivable,” Austin said in prepared remarks.
Our take: Unmanned and autonomous systems are particularly valuable in the maritime domain, where the Navy has more ocean than it knows what to do with: Autonomous systems can fill the gaps to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the ocean. Recent wargames have also demonstrated how vast numbers of the Navy’s large, slow surface vessels would be wiped out in the opening salvos of a conflict around Taiwan. A new approach to maritime power is necessary to deter conflict and protect our allies: Large numbers of fast and maneuverable vessels are desperately needed. Autonomous - not merely “uncrewed” - vessels are mission critical: Tactical scenarios demand a comprehensive understanding of the battlespace, rapid reactions, and large numbers. Autonomy enables the navy to develop the coordinated, resilient network of systems required for success. We’re glad to see that Chairman Milley and SecDef Austin understand these realities.
Thank you for reading The Nexus Newsletter. Stay tuned for more announcements from Applied Intuition, additional information about Nexus 23, and other important news from the nexus of national security and autonomy.