NY Budget Spotlight
O'Donnell & Associates, LLC
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Good morning from London.
While it is Election Season across the country, it is also the early days of the New York State Budget Season, so all eyes were on the Citizens Budget Commission breakfast last week where two of Governor Kathy Hochul’s top aides, Secretary to the Governor Karen Keogh and Director of State Operations Kathryn Garcia, sat down for a rare public appearance. Keogh, who occupies the top appointed position in State government as Secretary to the Governor, has taken a different approach to the role from her immediate predecessor—Melissa DeRosa—who routinely sat for interviews, was heavily engaged in social media, and frequently appeared in public with then-Governor Andrew Cuomo. When asked about that contrast, Keogh said, “I think the role is different depending on who the governor is or the time period in which you serve.”
The wide-ranging conversation included questions on New York City Mayor Eric Adams’ ability to effectively run New York City government while under indictment, several on State budget issues, and a discussion of the state of the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) with a focus on congestion pricing and their new capital plan. Keogh expressed optimism in some of Adams’ recent staff changes and added, “I don’t see any glitches day to day…There’s obviously some distraction, but have not seen any glitches.” Keogh and Garcia indicated that the Executive Chamber still has their eye on School Foundation Aid as an area for potential budget savings, pointing to the study currently underway to examine the decades-old Foundation Aid formula. Leadership in both Chambers of the Legislature rejected the plan last year, but Garcia suggested this year’s effort will be more collaborative saying, “This will be something we will do in clear partnership with the Legislature.” When asked by an attendee what it would take to implement the stalled congestion pricing tolling plan in Manhattan—a particularly thorny issue among many New York City residents—the pair answered, “We’re not going to make news today.” You can watch the full conversation with Keogh and Garcia here.
An article published by NOTUS, a nonprofit news outlet in Washington, D.C., did make news. The report was focused on Vice President Kamala Harris’s Transition Team and potential Harris Cabinet appointments while claiming Hochul was interested leaving Albany for D.C., writing, “Hochul’s aides have reached out to express [Hochul’s] interest in a potential position.” Hochul quickly scorched those rumors saying, “I love New York. I’m not leaving New York. All that is false. There are bad actors out there, once again, purveying lies. Categorically false, people are trying to create the notion I’m not running for reelection, and I’m running for reelection.” Hochul has been a surrogate for Harris, speaking at the Democratic National Convention in August and, just this weekend, joining other prominent Democratic Governors in Michigan for the ‘Blue Wall Bus Tour.’
Seeing as it is Election Season, of course there is a big court case here in New York. The New York Court of Appeals heard oral arguments regarding how and when New York’s absentee ballots will be counted. When widespread mail-in voting first went into effect in 2020, absentee ballots could not be counted until a week after Election Day, leading to some close races not being called until weeks, and even sometimes, months later. The Legislature sought to fix that in 2021, passing a law that allowed absentee votes to be counted as they came in, but a lawsuit from Republicans in the Legislature has threatened to undo that fix. Under the previous system, if either a Democratic or Republican Election Official at a voting precinct objected to the validity of a vote, it was decided by a judge at a later date. The 2021 change, seeking to expedite the absentee ballot counting process, allowed the vote to be counted if either side believed it was valid, something Republicans have argued has made the process unduly partisan.
Attorney Paul DerOhannesian, representing Republicans in the Legislature, told the panel of judges, “Once you allow this, it allows any other section that has bipartisan requirements to be changed also.” The trial-level court agreed in 2022, temporarily reversing the provision before an appellate court upheld the law. Even if the Court of Appeals sides with the GOP, implementing a process-change may prove difficult given that early voting is already well underway. Dustin Czarny, the Onondaga Board of Elections Democratic Commissioner said, “We’re literally opening up ballots every day already. We couldn’t put the genie back in the bottle if we wanted to.” With the potential of several close House races in New York, elections that could determine the majority party in the House of Representatives, this is worth watching.
From now until Election Day, OD&A will highlight the high-stakes races in NY that could shift the balance of power in Congress. This week:
And what about the balance of power in Albany?
Will the Democrats be able to maintain supermajorities in both Chambers?
OD&A breaks down the campaigns and follows the money trail in the hot races for the Legislature.
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If the race for the House depends on Republicans winning races in traditionally blue states, the opposite is true in the race for control of the U.S. Senate. Given the makeup of this year’s electoral map, Democrats will need victories in red states including Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia if they are to maintain their narrow majority. West Virginia is all but certain to elect Republican Governor Jim Justice to replace outgoing Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, leading Democrats to turn their attention to Montana where a win for Republican candidate Tim Sheehy would likely give the GOP a majority. Sheehy leads incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester by an 8 point margin according to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, but a massive fundraising haul is giving Democrats some hope.
Tester raised a whopping $30 million during the third quarter of 2024, with 96% of the 23,000 local donations being under $100. In a statement, Tester’s campaign manager said, “We are so grateful that Jon has overwhelming grassroots support from Montanans in every corner of the state, and we will channel this unprecedented momentum through Election Day to make sure Jon Tester can continue to defend Montana.” The only other candidates to raise more money than Tester during that time period were Sherrod Brown, a Democrat running for reelection in Ohio, and Colin Allred, the former NFL player and current Congressman running against incumbent Republican Senator Ted Cruz in Texas. Brown set an Ohio fundraising record, bringing in $31 million between July and the end of September. Allred raised $30.3 million in that time compared to Cruz’s $21 million.
Leaked polling memos from two of the largest Senate Republican Super PACs—the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) and the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC)—both agree that the GOP is poised to win in Montana, but outline potential signs of trouble elsewhere. The internal memos show Republican Senate candidates behind in Nevada, Arizona, and Maryland, but with better prospects in the Rust Belt states—Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—if they are to win a working majority. The NRSC lists Republican Bernie Moreno up by 2 points in Ohio against Brown, a vastly different outcome compared to the SLF memo which found Moreno down 6 points. Similarly in Michigan, the NSRC found Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin only leading Republican Rep. Mike Rogers by 1 point, whereas the SLF has Rogers down 8 points. There was more consensus in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with both groups listing Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin with a 1 point lead in Wisconsin over Republic Eric Hovde and a 1-2 point lead for Democratic Senator Bob Casey in Pennsylvania over Republican David McCormick.
On the presidential campaign trail, Vice President Harris sat for an interview with Fox News anchor Bret Baier last week. The interview, just one day after Harris appeared with more than 100 prominent Republicans who have endorsed her, is part of a strategy to reach moderate Republican voters while also quieting the claims that she has not sat for a difficult interview. Baier pushed Harris on President Biden’s fitness for office and how her administration would differ from his, as well as the situation at the Southern Border. Harris took the opportunity to clean up a previous answer where she said “nothing comes to mind” when asked what she would do differently from Biden, and this time offered, “My presidency will not be a continuation of Joe Biden's presidency, and like every new president that comes into office, I will bring my life experiences, my professional experiences, and fresh and new ideas. I represent a new generation of leadership.”
Where does the presidential race stand in the final weeks before Election Day? Jack talks to WBEN’s Joe Beamer on Hardline, starting at 10 a.m.
The reviews of Harris’s performance more or less fall along party lines, with Trump National Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt describing the interview as a “train wreck” and adding, “Kamala was angry, defensive, and once again abdicated any responsibility for the problems Americans are facing.” The Harris campaign, on the other hand, believes the appearance was a win, saying through a campaign aide, "We feel like we definitely achieved what we set out to achieve in the sense that she was able to reach an audience that’s probably been not exposed to the arguments she’s been making on the trail. And she also got to show her toughness in standing tall against a hostile interviewer.” We will see what voters think in two weeks.
With Congress on recess until after the election, the biggest (and best) news out of Washington, D.C. is the much-anticipated return of giant pandas to the Smithsonian National Zoo. The two 3-year-old pandas, Bao Li and Qing Bao, flew from China on a specially-charted FedEx plane—the Panda Express—before receiving a police escort to their new home. They are expected to remain for the next decade.
Finally…
As post-pandemic trends continue to come into sharper focus, people are seeing an alarming trend in Gen-Z.