Oil commentary - 20 December 2024

Good morning you oil legends, and can you believe it? It’s the final Friday before Christmas. The tinsel is up, the holly is out, “Home Alone” is on for the 286th time, and the hangover is lurking. But forget all that, let’s finish with an absolute banger of a Christmas cracker, shall we? Why did Santa get a parking ticket on Christmas Eve? He left his sleigh in a snow-parking zone! You have no idea how much I am going to miss these.

Anyway, let’s have a look at oil. Brent is trading this morning at $72.46, down 0.42, and WTi is trading down 0.41 at $68.97. I mean, I don’t need to tell you again that Brent is stuck in a range, do I? Brent in December has averaged $72.87. We are trading 41 cents below that average today. Steady. Play it nice and cool, Trig, nice and cooolllll. Nothing wrong with stability, but not a great deal to write about in oil markets, either.

In fact, I would argue—and I insert many caveats here because I am acutely aware there are many conflicts ongoing right now—that the world is a bit short on news at the moment, isn’t it? Things are ticking along. What will January bring though? Ah ha! Trumpy, there you areeeeee. Times Person of the Year for 2024, don’t you know. The second time he has been named TPOTY. And he was (again, oddly?) pretty humble with the accolade: "It's been an honour. And every time, it's an honour." Nice, Donald, nice.

What can we expect in 2025 though? Well, to me it is clear. China and Trump. Chumpy. Trina? That portmanteau probably won’t catch on, but still. What does Trump 2.0 hold in store? Has Chinese oil demand plateaued? Will OPEC+ sit idly by and watch? Will the US “drill baby drill”? Shall I ask another question? All of these, and of course more, in what is seemingly an ever more complex and layered world, are on the minds of anyone with an interest in energy prices. And let’s face it, of the 6 billion people Earth now inhabits, I would say around a quarter of those share that vested interest. And read this commentary, of course.

The annual Twelve Days of Oily Christmas commentary comes at you on Monday, so let me sign off before Christmas with this. I wish each and every one of you a very happy and enjoyable time with your loved ones. Be good, be safe, and keep on smiling. Merry Christmas.