One brush stroke stands for danger; the other for opportunity
US President John F Kennedy in a speech delivered on April 12, 1959 famously stated: “The Chinese use two brush strokes to write the word ‘crisis.’ One brush stroke stands for danger; the other for opportunity.” More specifically: the Chinese symbol for crisis (wēijī) is comprised of the character 危 (wēi/wéi) meaning "danger" and the character 機/机 (jī) meaning “incipient moment; or crucial point (when something begins or changes). The character for 机 (jī) also makes up a component of the Chinese word for "opportunity" jīhuì (機會; 机会).
A crisis forces us far outside of our comfort zone, but similar to how an irritation causes an oyster to produce a pearl, unexpected changes imposed by a crisis can lead to significant innovation and new ideas. As humans our default reaction is to resist enforced change and to restore order to our lives. But, if we individually, and as organizations, and industries, can reframe how we view a crisis, and face it with intention, we may be able to take advantage of it for positive growth and advancement.
In around 1655 the great plague of London forced Cambridge University to close its doors, and Sir Isaac Newton was compelled into isolation at home. During this period, Newton developed the theory of indefinitesimal calculus, parts of optic theory, and legend has it, his understanding of the laws of gravity and motion was inspired by a chance encounter with an apple (not an iPhone). This post isn't to make you feel like a slacker in comparison to Newton, if you don't invent a mathematical theory during the imposed social isolation necessitated by COVID-19. It's to challenge each of us as individuals, to use this period to self reflect and explore opportunities and ideas, including ones you may have relegated to the backburner. Organizations should also take a bird's eye view of the new business models and cultural evolutions that have been predicated on this crisis response, and assess where gains have been made in productivity, creativity, efficiency, and morale. They should be open to making permanent change where feasible, rather than simply returning to business as usual and wasting a great opportunity for real transformational progress.
A crisis forces us to be nimble and to quickly adapt to change. Businesses which are able to continue to operate during this containment period, need to adapt their business processes for continuity purposes. COVID-19 is a disruptor such as most of us have never experienced. The social isolation and other changes to business models imposed by the virus have the potential to be the catalyst for radical shifts in how we work and do business. A changing mindset is necessitated by responding to a crisis that shows up in the following ways...
1. Singularity of focus
Generally during normal operations, focus is diffused as evenly as possible over a range of competing priorities guided by a long-term strategy. But adapting to a crisis necessitates divergence from that longer term strategy, and from that incremental progress in a number of equally weighted priorities. A crisis necessitates an all hands on deck laser focus on only the most critical and urgent priorities, some of which previously may have been far down on the priority list, if they made the list at all.
For an obvious example - ramping up network capacity and leveraging video conferencing and collaboration tools, which in your organization may have had incremental steps outlined over time attached to relevant budget, now becomes an immediate and urgent project. So minds from across multiple departments are focused on this task with the knowledge that jobs and business continuity is dependent on creative solutions. As the adaptations are made and resources utilized to solve one part of the problem, that many creative minds with that level of singular focus, will almost certainly identify myriad other opportunities to elevate operations and service delivery across multiple business lines. Right now across the world, the greatest minds and the best organizations, in the healthcare, government, education, public, private and not for profit sectors are all focused on one thing - devising creative solutions to solve this urgent global problem.
The closest comparator to our current environment of global co-operation and singularity of focus on a shared crisis, is the two world wars. Some of the greatest innovations in human history, including radar, the assembly line, canned foods, microwave cooking, jet aircraft, submarines, digital photography, the ATM machine, freeze dried coffee, penicillin and the ball point pen were the result of the collective focus on problem solving necessitated by the two world wars. As we replicate that type of singular focus, great innovations and advances will organically be the result.
2. Playing to win
Many organizations, particularly in certain sectors, focus on playing it safe and not taking risks - i.e. playing defense. Employees and leaders are conditioned to be risk averse and afraid of making mistakes. In normal circumstances, decisions are made based on carefully weighing the potential risk of failure versus the potential reward. In a normal situation, most companies default to risk avoidance and just repeat the old tried and true business model and avoid making any substantial changes. In organizations in which I've managed, I've always created an environment conducive to creativity and risk taking, as long as it's based on due diligence and data. I always tell my staff that if they aren't making mistakes, it means they're not trying hard enough. But that is not the norm for most businesses, and with many leaders. However, in a crisis, standing still and maintaining the status quo is no longer an option. In fact business as usual presents the most risk.
So the crisis response becomes a catalyst for a risk taking mindset, and for tearing down the status quo and building something new. It forces you to go on offense. Think of time running out on the clock in a playoff game with your team needing to score a goal or basket to avoid elimination. Hanging back on defense and running out the clock is not an option. And in times of crisis, like in critical playoff games, leaders will emerge. People who under normal circumstances adhered to the boundaries imposed by the organization's culture, now when freed from the shackles of status quo, will step up with innovative solutions and ideas to solve the problem.
Opportunities
A crisis is a catalyst for transformational change in mindset and behaviour in industries which are directly affected. Consider what’s currently happening with the enforced move for employees to work from home; with educational institutions moving their entire suite of courses online; with the uptake of e-commerce shopping by customers of grocery stores, and with the demand for more alternate voting options.
Remote Working
A significant shift predicated by adjustments to the coronavirus, is the surge in employers being forced to close their physical office, and direct their employees to work from home. Remote working has become more commonplace in recent years, but it is far from the norm. The COVID-19 outbreak could kick-start a significant mindset shift that results in a much faster adoption of remote work culture.
According to a recent survey by platform Workhuman, only a third of people in the U.S. worked remotely prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. However, a global poll from 2018 by data and insights company Kantar found that 32% of respondents valued a job that allowed them to work from home.
The Owl Labs 2019 State of Remote Work survey reveals that 34% of U.S. workers would take a pay cut of up to 5% in order to work remotely. And those who do work remotely say they're happy in their jobs 29% more than on-site workers. The report found remote workers report they're 13% more likely than onsite workers to stay in their current job for the next 5 years.
According to a survey by Regus Canada, 47% of Canadian employees work from outside their employer’s main offices for half the week or more. 39% of survey respondents said they mostly work from home and 11 % report that they work exclusively from home.
Almost half (47%) of respondents surveyed, who work for companies without a remote-work policy, indicate feeling frustrated, and stated that they wish their company offered this benefit. 33% of respondents stated that they have considered looking for a job at a company that offers remote work, and 14% are actively looking. Over one third (36%) of employees would consider taking a pay cut to have the option to work remotely.
Employers that offer telecommuting options to employees also see a number of other benefits: 62% say that improved morale is the greatest benefit, followed by reduced absenteeism (59%), operational cost savings (55%), reduced employee turnover (50%), and reduced health insurance costs (28%).
According to survey results, 90% of employees believe they are at least equally productive working from home as they are in the office, with 55% stating they are more productive when they work from home. An overwhelming 96% of employers with remote-work policies also believe it doesn’t hamper productivity, with 65% saying it makes workers more productive.
The steady trend towards adoption of remote working policies has been facilitated by the development of more affordable widely available video-conferencing technology and collaboration tools. In addition, the pressure to attract and retain top talent has necessitated organizations to offer more flexible working arrangements. But there has still been reticence to fully embrace remote working by many employers (in particular in the public sector, due to the weight of public perception). However, the outbreak of COVID-19 is rapidly accelerating the movement away from the archaic notion that staff productivity should primarily be measured by how many hours they spend looking busy while clinging to a desk in the office.
This month, with more employers forced to have their staff work remotely as a result of the virus outbreak, Microsoft Corp's 'Teams' chat and conferencing app saw a 37.5% jump, gaining more than 12 million daily users in just one week. As of March 18, Teams had 44 million daily active users, which is more than double the number of users Microsoft reported in November of 2019. Teams users grew from 32 million to 44 million in the period between March 11 and March 18 alone.
Collaboration app Slack Technologies Inc, - the major rival to Teams, last week reported adding 7,000 new paid customers from Feb. 1 to March 18, a roughly 40% increase over each of its previous two fiscal quarters. As the roll out continues Microsoft is analyzing user data regarding needs and rapidly providing updates and enhancements including new AI technology which can enhance the remote working experience.
The danger to be wary of with remote working, is the increased feelings of isolation which can occur once you remove the social dynamic and the direct relationships that are endemic in an in person work-place. The water cooler chats. The casual check-ins. The casual chats over lunch. There will naturally be a changing dynamic between colleagues, and between managers and staff once interactions switch from in person to remote. Managers need to take intentional proactive steps to mitigate feelings of isolation by strengthening their presence. Ensure you schedule more frequent check-ins via video or phone conversations with your staff. This includes one-on-one check-ins, as well as team, department and organization wide meetings. Ensure that meetings are less rigid. Build in some time for people to chat and share stories about their day and personal experiences in an effort to humanize the virtual workplace.
Team building activities where possible can continue on-line with a little imagination and innovation. Many companies have breaks during the day to stretch and move around. Organizations during normal times bring in yoga instructors, organize group walks, or staff go to the gym together. But you can establish a staff morale team to come up with group activities which can be done on-line together. Interested staff can log in for a stretching or yoga lesson through video conference technology. Acknowledge staff birthdays individually or as a group during staff video conference meetings, and have everyone sing happy birthday, just as you would in person at the office. Organize virtual games that staff can play together remotely during set lunch breaks. Be creative.
The adaptation to facilitating remote workforces is a significant shift in workplace dynamics and culture. Following the end of this containment period, businesses may find it extremely challenging to revert to business as usual. If they have invested in the technology infrastructure to enable staff to work remotely, they may now be more open to explore flexible work arrangements.
Online Learning
While online education has seen a steady increase over the last decade, particularly in post-secondary institutions, most students in elementary and secondary students, as well as the majority of undergraduate students still primarily attend classes in person. The 2018 survey of online learning in Canadian colleges and universities revealed the following:
· More than two-thirds of all Canadian public universities and colleges offer online courses for credit
· in 2018, there were more than 1.3 million online course registrations, representing 8% of all course registrations.
· roughly one in five Canadian students are taking at least one online course for credit.
· the main barriers to online learning were increased time for faculty/instructors and inadequate training and support
In the United States the trend is similar:
· Over 6 million Americans are pursuing an online education. The number of online students has risen every year for the past few years—and more than a quarter of all college students are taking an online class.
· 68% of online students are already experienced professionals. While there’s a noted increase in college-age students choosing online education, most online students are already career professionals. The average online student is 32 years old.
An online education is generally significantly cheaper than a traditional degree as it excludes accommodations, meal costs and formal classrooms. In the US the average cost of an online degree is $50,000 less than pursuing a traditional degree.
So the number of online learning programs, and consequently the enrollment in on-line learning has been increasing steadily over the past decade, but the progression towards widespread adoption has been relatively slow. However, the outbreak of COVID-19 has been like kerosene to an open flame. The forced close down of post-secondary institutions has been the catalyst for colleges and universities across the globe to shift the bulk of their courses online. The rewards now outweigh the risk factor, because the only alternative left for colleges and universities is canceling classes altogether - the equivalent of temporarily going out of business, and issuing refunds. That alternative is anathema to post-secondary institutions, so suddenly, in the space of three months. they will make more progress with online learning than they have in the past ten years.
Elementary and secondary schools have also started testing out videos and synchronous and asynchronous on-line learning modules for their students. Private training organizations are also seeing the need to quickly expand their on-line program offerings in order to maintain operations and revenue streams. This is a major shift which will have long-lasting impact. Once this crisis is over, there's no going back. The business model will be forever transformed.
On-line Grocery Shopping
The response to the COVID-19 virus, is sending shockwaves through the on-line retail market, including the previously lukewarm market segment of on-line grocery retail. .
While shopping for books, music, electronics and ordering dinner on-line have become common place in US and Canada , food and grocery is one of the least developed on-line retail market sectors, making up a meager 5.5% of all on-line spending. In 2019, just 4% of grocery sales in the US came from online purchasing, according to Nielsen. Online grocery purchases represent about $2 billion of the $120-billion food retail market, according to e-commerce researchers at retail consultancy J.C. Williams Group.
There are a number of factors which have contributed to the modest uptake of on-line grocery shopping. The primary factor is that food is largely needs-based, so many purchases have a significant degree of immediacy attached to them. A shopper can't wait for a day or two for the delivery of ingredients to make tonight's dinner, or for baby formula or cough and cold or stomach remedies if you need it now. Shoppers also prefer the comfort of selecting their fruits and vegetables before purchasing. Grocery retailers have also lagged behind other sectors in developing online services.
The latter gap had started to be addressed thanks to Amazon’s entry into grocery with the acquisition of Whole Foods. Since that move, most large grocery retailers, immediately began developing their online grocery services in order to remain competitive.
2020 was already predicted to be a game changer for on-line grocery retail. Canadian supermarket chain Sobeys recently launched a partnership with U.K. firm Ocado Group, for a $95-million e-commerce program called Voilà. So grocery retailers were already ramping up capacity, including order and delivery systems and expanding on-line product offerings, when the tsunami of the coronavirus swept in.
With consumers confined to their homes in the wake of the COVID-19 virus, online grocery shopping has exploded. Downloads of Instacart, Walmart's grocery app and Shipt increased 218%, 160%, and 124% respectively last Sunday compared with the previous year.
Significantly, a large percentage of seniors have come on-line, adding a very large, previously reluctant consumer demographic into the mix. According to a survey by analysts at Gordon Haskett Research Advisors, one third of shoppers surveyed in the last week said they had purchased groceries online for pickup or delivery in the past seven days. Around 41% said they were buying groceries online for the first time.
People always shift behaviour during a crisis. The current situation is accelerating both consumer habits and structural changes in the supermarket industry by about five years according to industry analysts. For shoppers who have now learned and gotten used to the convenience of shopping on-line, once things return to normal, they are unlikely to shed their new buying behaviour en masse, providing that the on-line experience is a satisfactory one.
Alternative Voting Options
This Fall approximately 130 million Americans are expected to head to the polls to vote for the next president as well as thousands of other elected positions. The coronavirus pandemic and the need for social distancing to contain the disease spread, has already seen state democratic primaries postponed. However, if the virus is not contained well before the November general election, postponement is not an option. The date for US Presidential Elections is prescribed by federal law, as is the constitutionally mandated Presidential inauguration which must take place on Jan. 20. While many sectors may be able to be temporarily postponed due to this global health crisis, free and fair US Presidential elections is not one of them.
So this has led to a call for expanded vote by mail adoption for the primaries, as well as implementing universal vote by mail and expanded absentee ballots an easy and accessible option for all eligible voters for the general election. Enacting universal vote-by-mail options for this Fall's election will require either the passage of federal legislation or a series of changes to state laws, especially in the states that now require an excuse for absentee ballots.
In most US states, eligible voters can already vote by mail. 33 states and the District of Columbia either conduct their elections by mail or permit “no excuse” absentee voting. Americans have been increasingly voting by mail: More than 23% of voters cast their ballots by mail in the 2016 presidential elections, up from about 12% in 2004. In Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Washington, most or all votes are cast by mail; three other states have more than half of their votes cast through vote by mail. Nearly one-quarter of all voters cast ballots by mail in 2016. Where enacted, vote by mail has proven to encourage higher turnout. In the 2018 midterm elections, states that permit voting by mail had, on average, 15.5% higher voter turnout than states that did not. Voters of all political persuasions utilize vote by mail and express confidence in its use . Importantly, states that have used vote-by-mail have encountered essentially zero fraud.
Operationalizing widespread vote by mail for all eligible electors will be a daunting task, the preparation for which needs to start now. The logistics will include producing tens of millions of mail-in ballots and envelopes with pre-paid postage ready to go in the mail by Labour Day to ensure each eligible voter receives one in time. Ballot scanners need to be purchased and distributed to ensure votes are tabulated quickly and accurately. Other technological advances such as signature-matching software can help ensure ballots are coming from the voters they were sent to.
Physical polling sites will still need to be made available for voters who are uncomfortable or unable to use the vote by mail option and to avoid disenfranchising communities of color, low-income and disabled voters, first nations voters on reservations without standard mailing addresses, and those who need language assistance. Widespread vote by mail will ameliorate the risk of excessive crowds at these physical locations, but the physical voting sites will need to be set up for advanced voting to further reduce volume on voting day, and strict protocols will need to be enacted to protect the health of voters and poll workers, many of whom are older.
In Conclusion
No one wishes for a crisis, and there are real, devastating impacts of this health pandemic, including loss of loved ones, loss of income and significant economic and personal hardship which cannot be downplayed. What we hope for is that once we emerge from the darkness of this experience, like with other significant crises, people, governments and organizations will have come together with common purpose, and managed to create new opportunities for innovation across many sectors, as well as positive advancements that will improve people's daily lives. It is important to keep in mind a people-centric approach in times of crisis. As leaders your decisions and the risks you will take to navigate and survive this situation, should first and foremost be focused on the human element and the well-being of your people, your customers, your community, your family and your nation. We have to put people first, especially in times like this. If not, what are we fighting for? For business and political leaders, this is a time to take more risks, to focus on what really matters, and to embrace the opportunity to lead. Stay healthy. Stay safe.