OPINION | UK POINTS-BASED IMMIGRATION RULE PUTS BREAK ON SUMMER 24 BUNDESLIGA-PREMIER LEAGUE TRANSFERS:

Transfers from England to Germany have been a successful carry trade, particularly for academy players seeking to develop further. Players like Jadon Sancho, Jude Bellingham, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, and Reece Oxford have greatly improved following their move to the Bundesliga, with Sancho and Bellingham in particular becoming England internationals. 

Whilst players such as Kai Havertz, Timo Werner, Robin Koch, Bernd Leno, and Stefan Ortega moved in the opposite direction in recent seasons to further their careers, and what is more substantially increase their earnings.

However, that well-trodden and fruitful path for both leagues is potentially at risk due to the UK's increasing route towards 'splendid isolation' which came in the form of the decision to leave the European Union, with barriers to immigration also going up in the football industry.

Is the downturn in transfers also however a reflection of the diminished competitiveness of Germany's players in contrast to those of the England team? The transfer window 24/25 provides insights:

The high point in terms of former German players in the Premier League in recent seasons, in which 20 German players were playing in the English top tier, including Chelsea’s Antonio Rüdiger, Erik Durm at Huddersfield, and Christoph Zimmermann at Norwich, was 2018/19.

As it stands at this time there will be eleven German players in England's top tier in 24/25

The low point in contrast is the season we are going into. With two weeks to go until the close of the English transfer market, there will be just eleven German players in England, including Bernd Leno at Fulham, Kai Havertz at Arsenal, and Vitaly Janelt at Brentford.

With Bundesliga clubs having put in an outstanding performance in European competition in the past season with three German teams in the last four of the Champions League and Europa League, in contrast to the Premier League's one: Aston Villa, you might have expected more demand from the English game?

Likewise, with the financial power of the Bundesliga and its new media deal which is worth a record €1.1bn, in a league where all but Borussia Mönchengladbach, Hoffenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt and VfB Stuttgart are debt-free you might expect the German league to be more of an attraction for England-based players?

In the season ahead there will be only six English-born players in the Bundesliga 

Heading into the 2024-25 season, there will currently however just be six English players in the Bundesliga, including Bayern Munich’s Harry Kane and Eric Dier, Aaron Briggs at Wolfsburg, and Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, now known as Jamie Gittens, at Borussia Dortmund.

So far this season, there has also been a limited amount of transfer business between the Bundesliga and the English leagues and the reasons appear to lie with the position the UK has manoeuvred itself into in respect of its trading relationship with its nearest neighbours. 

The permanent transfers from the English top tier to the German league that have been completed this summer are: Bayern Munich's acquisition of Michael Olise from Crystal Palace for €53m, João Palhinha from Fulham to Bayern Munich for €51m, Yan Couto from Manchester City to Borussia Dortmund for €4m, Finn Stevens from Brentford and Scott Banks from Crystal Palace both to St Pauli both €800,000.

Transfers from the Bundesliga to the Premier League in reverse are limited to Matthjis de Ligt for €45m and Noussair Mazraoui for €15m, both from Bayern Munich to Manchester United, Brajan Gruda Mainz 05 to Brighton Hove & Albion for €31.5m, Niklas Füllkrug transfers from Borussia Dortmund to West Ham United for €27m, Maxence La Croix from Wolfsburg to Crystal Palace for €18m, Pascal Gross from Brighton for €7m to Borussia Dortmund, Stuttgart’s acquisition of Deniz Undav from Brighton Hove & Albion for a reported €27.5m, Eric Da Silva-Moreira from Nottingham Forest to St Pauli for €1.5m.

Player moves from Germany to the English top tier are worth a combined €187m. The amount paid by Bundesliga clubs to those in the Premier League amounts this summer to €63.8m. Transfer business to the English league remains highly profitable but the numbers are declining in both directions.

Rule changes in the UK have affected transfer business

A key factor for the slowdown which has been highlighted in the industry is the continued fallout from the UK’s exit from the European Union which took effect in January 2016. The rules that have subsequently been applied make it much harder for EU passport players to sign with the need to now apply for work permits, an often long and drawn out procedure which is not always successful. 

Whilst the criteria are less stringent for players who are full internationals, in particular, the ruling is affecting younger players detrimentally. Under the current regulations, British clubs that want to sign players from the EU now have to wait until they are 18 and are restricted to signing just six EU players each year between the ages of 18 and 21.

In addition, these players will now have to fulfil criteria that determine their eligibility to play in the UK. This includes whether they’ve played international football and the ranking of the league they’ve been playing in.

The restrictions that came in place in 2021 go some way towards explaining the limited amount of transfer business. They also explain why many players with parental roots in third countries in Africa, like France-born Sebastien Haller who plays for Ivory Coast, in particular are choosing to play for the national teams there, rather than in higher-ranked European countries in order to qualify for full international status.

Players with roots in non-EU countries are opting to play there rather than for higher ranked European countries

The same pattern of a reduction of transfer business from English clubs to Germany has also been reflected in the second and third tiers. In the 2. Bundesliga, there are five English players; Joshua Knight at Hannover 96, Xavier Ameichi at 1 FC Magdeburg, Bradley Ibrahim and Jon-Joe Kenny both at Hertha Berlin. In the third tier, the 3. Liga there are none. In the fourth tier the Regionaliga, there are two players. A reducing and limited number.

Before Brexit came into force in January 2020, in season 2018/19, there were a record twenty German players in the Premier League, including Christoph Zimmermann and Moritz Leitner at Norwich City, Erik Durm at Huddersfield Town, and Loris Karius at Liverpool. In the Bundesliga, there were almost twice as many as now; ten, including Anthony Evans at Paderborn, Kaylen Hinds at VfL Wolfsburg, and Ryan Kent at SC Freiburg.

At Norwich City in the season they were promoted to the Premier League under German coach Daniel Farke in 2018/19, there were eleven German players, a record which stands to this day for a foreign team, covering all positions, from now Schalke 04 goalkeeper Ralf Fährmann, to midfielder Marco Stiepermann, and former BVB midfielder Moritz Leitner, under the leadership of former BVB II, now Leeds United, coach Daniel Farke, who got the club promoted twice and stayed for five seasons between 2017 and 21.

Are the reduced numbers of German players in the English top league a result of the performances of the DFB team?

In terms of looking at the reasons for this, it would be easy, in spite of the improvement at this summer's European Championship where the DFB team reached the quarterfinal, to point at the diminished performances of the German national team.

In particular, the first-round exits at the 2018 and 2022 World Cups have underlined the theory that the current generation of German players has not yet adapted as well to modern tactics compared to their compatriots in England.

It is no revelation that there have been signs of weakening in particular in German youth football. The DFB’s junior national teams have regularly missed out on qualifying for the European Championships, and World Cups, in recent years.

The last European title at the U19 level was won in 2014. At the U20 level, the world title has not been won since 1981. The U21 European Championship win in 2021. There were notable wins of the European Championship and World Cup in 2023, but both at U17 level. These however remain the only achievements of note in the men's game in recent years.

The England team is benefitting from the strength of the Premier League 

The contrast with arch-rivals England is marked; the Three Lions’ U17 and U20 teams, respectively, won the world championships in 2017. England also won the European Championship at the U19 level in 2022.

The success at the youth level has translated into success for the first team. England’s senior team was a semi-finalist at the 2019 Nations League, a semi-finalist at Russia in 2018, and a finalist at Euro 2020, and Euro 2024.

The appointment of arguably one of the best young coaches in European football to the top coaching job at the DFB, former Bayern Munich coach Julian Nagelsmann, is though starting to have a positive effect.

The highly-regarded young coach who won titles with both RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich is visibly laying the foundations for change at the DFB. This is evident in the Germany team reaching the quarterfinal, and with good performances, at the home European Championship in June.

In terms of pounds for pound invested German club football remains one of the world's most-effective.

The Premier League clubs, with their vastly bigger budgets, have ultimately won more titles in European competition. However, Bayern Munich also won the Champions League in 2013 and 2020, and Eintracht Frankfurt, the Europa League in 2022. 

Bundesliga clubs have consistently reached the last 16. RB Leipzig, Bayer Leverkusen, and Eintracht Frankfurt have all reached the semi-finals in Europe’s second competition. Borussia Dortmund also reached the final of the Champions League in 2013 and 2024.

The revenue of the Premier League at €6.1bn in 23/24, which is anticipated to increase to €7.5bn in 24/25 according to the 2024 Deloitte football money report, may be substantially higher than the combined €4.4bn of the 18 clubs in the top tier of the German league but the two leagues have the highest turnover in the game, and transfer business between the two also remains among the most profitable. 

The UK's restrictive immigration laws are limiting the recruitment of players without national team appearances

The theory that immigration laws are affecting transfers is backed up by decision-makers in the industry. Interviewed on the topic in January, then Norwich City Sporting Director Webber revealed: “What you have to see is that the team we built here that took us to the Premier League in 2018 would now no longer be possible. Due to the new visa constraints because of Brexit, we couldn’t hire Pukki, Leitner, Zimmermann, Passlack, or most of the EU players; only Vrančić could have joined due to his international appearances.”

Webber elaborated: “As a club, we have now had to start a project in Brazil instead, making reference to the club’s arrangement with top-flight club Coritiba, with which an exchange programme has existed since this past season.

The former Huddersfield Town Sporting Director, however, also underlined the value of German players and the desire to support the hiring of German players: “German players are always interesting; We are always open to Bundesliga players; we know communication works well; and there is no lack of quality, of course.”

Webber, who at at the end of January was replaced at Norwich by former Arsenal loan manager Ben Knapper, explained one of the key reasons for the limited recruitment by English clubs: “We cannot get the points in terms of immigration requirements anymore, but if we can get an advantage, we will of course be open, but Bundesliga 2 and below is almost impossible now unless the player has a lot of international caps at U21 or senior level, then the market is pretty much off bounds.”

This week a further three transfers increase the value of transfers from Bundesliga to Premier League to €160m

This week there have been grounds for optimism with three further transfers between the two leagues, including a Germany international of Southampton Centre-back Armel Bela-Kotchap, for €12m to Hoffenheim, and a further two former Bundesliga players Noussair Mazraoui, and Matthijs de Ligt (€15m and €45m from Bayern Munich to Manchester United), this takes the total of former Bundesliga players still to just fourteen, well beneath the pre-Brexit high of season 18/19.

Even with an impressive value for players moving from Germany's top tier to the English equivalent, the limited numbers, if the trend persists, remain a concern for the development of the pathway of English players to Germany and vice-versa which has substantially benefitted both leagues.   

German football continues to show improvements with the Germany U17 team winning the European and World titles in 2023, and a record eight German teams going into European competition in 24/25 and producing outstanding talent like Leverkusen's Florian Wirtz who remains one of Europe's most sought after players. On that basis alone it will remain a key league for recruitment for the leading clubs of the Premier League and beyond. 

However, the change to immigration laws in the UK, which is evidently restricting the movement of younger players without national team experience, is also reducing the scope for Germany-based players to gain access to the opportunity to develop their careers in the highly competitive Premier League.

The challenge to immigration laws, if not addressed can, also impact the chance for English clubs with smaller budgets, like Norwich City, to recruit from Europe's top leagues, including Germany.

These impediments need addressing if the restrictions are not to have a long-term detrimental effect on what remains one of the game's most productive and profitable talent development pathways.