Our hyperconnected worlds are nothing but Jenga Games all the way.

Just imagine a stack of Jenga blocks 2 meters in height. It would be unstable and vulnerable to crashing down even on a slight disturbance of any kind. And when it does crash, who or what would you point the blame at from the list provided below?

• The gust of wind in the area
• The fewer blocks placed at the bottom
• The wrong positioning of blocks in the middle
• The topmost block that shouldn't have been there
• The lack of thought from the player before you while placing the blocks
• The extra force used by the player before you to remove one of the blocks
• The different qualities/sizes of blocks that make the whole structure unstable

You may be tempted to blame any of the options above since that's what we as a species do, i.e., reduce events to their simplest explanation. This tendency makes the world appear linear and understandable and gives us an illusion that we completely control our direction or destiny.

It's the same reductionist bias that makes us think in the following manner -

• If I work hard and clear my exams, I will get a great job
• If I make the right connections, I could grow faster
• If I look good, I will make an impression
• If I have a lot of money, I will be happy
• If I do this, then that will happen

Our reductionist tendency does give us the drive to move towards certain goalposts, but ask yourself if the goals you achieved turned out exactly how you thought they would. Most likely, they didn't. They far exceeded your expectations, or they became the norm and don't excite you anymore.

And hence, now you are chasing a new "if this happens, then that ..."

Human beings seek patterns everywhere. We need an answer to why the markets crashed yesterday, why this person did that specific thing, or why the events unfolded the way they did. Because we all suffer from the same tendency, we will have people dish out an opinion when asked these really difficult questions.

But in complex, hyperconnected systems like ours, there is no clear answer except for waiting and seeing how events unfold.

• Will AI replace jobs - Let's see
• Will the market crash - Let's see
• Will the US actually go into recession - Let's see
• Will the Middle East tensions turn into WW3 - Let's see

"Let's see" or "I don't know" may be the appropriate answer to most questions bothering people, but then the answer isn't exciting enough for both the people in the conversation. Hence, we will try to explain the source of the events that took place. We all try hard, but it's really difficult to get to the root cause of many undercurrents shaping events around us.

A smarter strategy would be to make choices that would give you higher odds of surviving when black swans affect the society/industry/economy that you are playing in, e.g.

• Sleep better so that you operate with peak cognition at all times
• Save more than you spend so that you have enough for the rainy days
• Workout so that you have higher odds of beating covid like occurrences
• Eat healthy so that you can live longer and have the energy to fight your battles
• Be kind and compassionate so that you build relationships that stand the test of time
• Communicate effectively so you lead effectively or are counted as dependable always
• Be grounded and humble at all times so that ego doesn't make you chew more than you can

As for black swans being thought of as a once-in-a-lifetime event. Your wrong. They happen every month or max every year in a hyper-connected world of ours - COVID, Russia attacking Ukraine, Iran V/s Israel, attacks on shipping routes, and the fastest interest rate hikes in history - these have all happened in just the last 4 years.

And more will continue to happen, no matter how much you and I prayed for normalcy and stability.

Do pray, it works I'm sure. But do also work on building the defenses that will give you higher odds of survival when the Jenga blocks come crashing down. And they will, for us all, just the timing may vary !!!