Over a Beer: Weather Outlook – Summer of 2022-2023

At the request of some of our clients I have brought back the – “over a beer with Lotty” – weather forecast; to share our passion and insights. 

Our business is tied at the hip with all of agriculture across the entire nation. We are certainly paranoid about the weather because it affects everything we do…so we avidly research it and watch it.  We are weather watchers! not “storm chasers”.

Our current wet weather (over the winter and spring) has been largely driven by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). It will taper off in November.  There may be a hiatus between the influences of the IOD , and La Nina, and our summer driven northern (monsoon) systems.  But I don’t think so. I don’t think we will see weeks of sun and hot dry weather just yet.  This is because our continent is already wet and acting more like an “oasis” than the driest continent on earth.  It will generate a little of its own “climate action” in relation to the oceans over the coming summer.

The figure below shows La Nina’s pattern; it is cool water that influences the equatorial belt. It strongly influences the northern weather systems, or the monsoon systems.  The current La Niña is in its record third year. This has happened only twice since 1950.  It has also extended the northern monsoon season in the last two years.

As a separate matter of interest, take a look at the large amount of red hot water around North America. It can be linked to their recent extremes in North America (drought and mass cattle deaths (ala Kansas USA)).

The La Nina is present and is influencing our current weather. It will couple with the northern wet season (the Monsoon) in the coming months.  The Monsoon has not yet arrived in Australia.

Our monsoon systems come from India. We start tracking it in June-July as it arrives there, reforms, turns-around, and, then starts its journey back across Asia to Australia.  It is currently on the way to us.

Here is the summary of the monsoon as it left India in September 2022:

• The monsoon started (in India) with catastrophic floods (June 2022). At the same time some regions then went through dry phases (drought) which directly impacted agricultural production. Crop plantings and production have been impacted badly.
• It left behind a trail of loss and damage in the form of devastating floods, drought-like conditions and other extreme weather events. 
• Human and livestock deaths have been extreme due to heat, drought, lightning and flooding.
• This weather is heading our way for the end of 2022 and the start of 2023. 

The Bottom Line

So, here is the “over a beer” bottom line. Get ready for;

• Another, generally, wet summer with wild storms, weather systems and consequent floods,
• Erratic conditions, variously; wet, dry, extreme heat; and,
• Significant – extreme - heat stress events for crop and stock with high risk of losses.

I recommend – get ready “now”- prepare your home, your business assets and maintain your insurances!   Prepare

Then, these macro systems will “flip over”. We will get a big dry – our outlook for the next drought is circa 2024. If you would like more detail please contact me.

Here’s to the next beer.

Simon Lott - Specialist Engineer at EnviroAg Australia

EnviroAg Australia is a leading provider of environmental and agricultural, science and engineering related services. Providing services throughout regional, rural and remote Australia, and can service urban areas with ease.

Find out more at: www.enviroag.net.au