Overview: Just A Little More

Space companies’ third-quarter results have been rolling in the past couple of weeks. This is the time when year-end totals come into view, so I wanted to run through some of the Q3 results as we head into the close of 2024.

Rocket Lab stock ripped higher yesterday after reporting Q3 earnings. I see the surge as investors welcoming the company’s progress on Neutron — which announced its first contract — and seeing promise with its Archimedes engines, as well as feeling reassured by the company’s steady revenue growth. Launch revenue was flat year-over-year, but its Space Systems business drove Q3 revenue, bringing in $83.9 million for the period. 

CEO Peter Beck got a lot of questions from analysts on the call about whether Rocket Lab can scale Neutron’s cadence faster than forecast (currently set for one launch in 2025, three launches in 2026, five launches in 2027 and seven launches in 2028), but the big hurdle remains getting to that first orbital launch success.

Redwire’s third quarter was mainly about building its backlog, up 30% year-over-year to $330 million. While its Q3 revenue growth was a bit light, up just under 10% to $62.6 million, the company affirmed its full-year forecast for $310 million in revenue. 

The increased backlog number also gave Wall Street analysts confidence about the company regaining momentum into next year — especially with it having nearly $3 billion in outstanding bids for additional contracts, quadruple the same mark as last year and expected to further add to its backlog.

Intuitive Machines’ headline news out of Q3 was that it’s now targeting a February launch window for its second lunar cargo mission, IM-2. Similar to Redwire, analysts focused on IM’s contract backlog growth, which is up to $316 million. 

Of note, IM CEO Steve Altemus said on the company’s earnings call that the company is taking over operations and analysis of NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, a moon satellite that’s been in lunar orbit since 2009. On the back of its multiple contract awards this year, IM expects to bring in about $225 million in 2024 revenue and has already doubled last year’s annual revenue total.

The most interesting bit about Virgin Galactic’s Q3 results wasn’t the actual results, but rather that the company is launching a new $300 million at-the-market equity sale. 

This made me curious about the company’s fundraising history, so I took a dive through its filings to tally things up. Virgin Galactic raised about $1.2 billion before going public. Then, in gross proceeds, it raised $460.2 million from the SPAC transaction in 2020, followed by annual at-the-market raises of $500 million in 2021, $300 million in 2022, $400 million in 2023 and now it’s starting a $300 million sale. Plus there was the $425 million debt addition in 2022.

That means Virgin Galactic will have raised about $3.6 billion, all told, assuming this latest ATM brings in the full amount like the previous ones did. 

That’s staggering. I’m simultaneously impressed by the company’s fundraising prowess and frustrated that the 20-year-old suborbital space tourism company doesn’t have more to show for it. I’m not throwing shade at what the company has done — after all, VSS Unity flew to space a dozen times before retiring — but having no operational spacecraft for another two years is still disappointing given the money involved. In 2019 the company had said it would have “a total of five SpaceShipTwo vehicles in service by the end of 2023.”

In general, this past week has seen a binary trend among pure-play space stocks: “New” space companies are up as much as 20% or more, and “legacy” players are sliding. More on that in an article soon!

WHAT'S UP

• Dish bondholders say no deal, leaving EchoStar in the lurch: DirecTV is abandoning its planned acquisition of Dish assets from EchoStar, after Dish bondholders refused to take a haircut on the entity’s debt. “Given the outcome of the EchoStar exchange, DirecTV will have no choice but to terminate the acquisition of Dish by midnight on Nov. 22.” – CNBC
• SpaceX’s Dragon boosts ISS orbit for the first time, in a demonstration of reboost capabilities using the spacecraft’s Draco thrusters. – NASA
• Dream Chaser launch slips to May as Sierra Space prepares the spaceplane for its inaugural cargo mission to the ISS, previously expected for earlier this year. – SpaceNews
• SpaceX requests Taiwanese suppliers move equipment manufacturing to Thailand, with satellite component maker Chin-Poon Industrial confirming the request was "mostly due to geopolitical considerations,” in a veiled reference to China. – Reuters
• Elon Musk recommends SpaceX executives for Pentagon roles, including Vice President of Special Programs Terrence O'Shaughnessy, a former Air Force general, and Senior Vice President of Government Affairs Tim Hughes. – The New York Times
• JPL to cut 5% of workforce, laying off about 325 people, the NASA research and development lab announced. “With lower budgets and based on the forecasted work ahead, we had to tighten our belts across the board, and you will see that reflected in the layoff impacts,” JPL director Laurie Leshin wrote in a memo to employees. – JPL
• Russia and U.S. disagree on causes and risks of ISS leaks, with a joint commission safety review unable to agree after meeting in Moscow. – SpacePolicyOnline
• Lockheed Martin is “months” behind schedule on new GPS satellites according to the U.S. Space Force, with the contractor reportedly citing difficulty manufacturing some complex parts. Lockheed expects to deliver new GPS IIIF satellites as much as eight to 11 months behind schedule. – Bloomberg
• Rivada loses license priority for satellite constellation after Liechtenstein’s telecommunications regulator rescinded the company’s license, citing its reportedly “dubious business plan.” The company has previously touted its ITU priority as a key asset. – SpaceIntelReport
• Trump expected to un-reverse Space Command HQ decision, as the Biden administration previously decided to keep the headquarters in Colorado rather than move it to Huntsville, Alabama. – 1819 News
• Broadband startup Logos Space plots 1,000-satellite constellation, according to Milo Medin, a former Google executive and NASA project manager. Founded a year ago, Logos backers include Thomas Tull’s U.S. Innovative Technology (USIT) fund. – SpaceNews
• Denmark joins Artemis Accords, the 48th country to sign the international agreement. – NASA
• NASA seeking new HQ building, with its current D.C. facility lease expiring in Aug. 2028. The agency says criteria for a new building include being within walking distance of D.C. mass transit and a minimum of 375,000 square feet of office space. – NASA

INDUSTRY MANEUVERS

• Firefly Aerospace raises $175 million at a $2 billion valuation in a round led by RPM Ventures and joined by GiantLeap Capital and Human Element. – Bloomberg
• Satellite servicing startup Starfish raises $29 million in a round led by Shield Capital and joined by Point72 Ventures, Booz Allen Ventures, Aero X Ventures, Trousdale Ventures, and TRAC VC, as well as existing investors Munich Re Ventures, Toyota Ventures, NFX, and Industrious Ventures. The startup plans to use the funds to complete work on its first three Otter servicing spacecraft, and has grown to a team of 70 employees. – Starfish
• Satellite intelligence company Ursa Space raises $10 million in venture debt from Horizon Technology Finance, “for general growth and working capital purposes.” – Horizon
• BlackSky acquires satellite manufacturer LeoStella for an undisclosed amount, which was previously a joint venture between BlackSKy and Thales Alenia Space. – BlackSky
• SDA awards $116.7 million contract to Kratos to develop a ground system that supports missile-defense operations with data from satellites. – SpaceNews
• NASA extends ISS cargo delivery contracts for SpaceX, Northrop Grumman and Sierra Space to 2030, with the combined CRS-2 program having a total maximum value of $14 billion. – NASA

MARKET MOVERS

• Spire selling maritime business for $241 million to Belgian company Kpler, in a move the satellite services company says will allow Spire “to retire all outstanding debt and invest in near-term growth opportunities.” – Spire

BOLDLY GOING

• George Whitesides, former CEO of Virgin Galactic, wins congressional race in California’s 27th District. Whitesides ran as a Democrat against Republican incumbent Mike Garcia. – NBC News
• Ramu Potarazu and Steven Fay named CEO and CFO, respectively, of Lynk as the company prepares to go public via the Slam Corp SPAC. Potarazu previously spent time in the satellite industry as the president and COO of Intelsat, while Fay held a prior role as the deputy CFO of OneWeb. – Lynk

ON THE HORIZON

• Nov. 14: AST SpaceMobile reports Q3 results after market close.
• Nov. 17: SpaceX Falcon 9 launches Australian Optus-X satellite from Florida.
• Nov. 18: SpaceX Falcon 9 launches Starlink satellites from California.
• Nov. 18: SpaceX Starship launches 6th flight test from Texas.
• Nov. 18: SpaceX Falcon 9 launches India’s GSAT-20 satellites from Florida.
• Nov. 19: Rocket Lab Electron launches Leidos’ MACH-TB mission from Virginia.

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