Perspectives on New India - Vision 2022

New India - The Context

Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi first spoke about his dream for ‘New India’ sometime in early March 2017 and thereafter he dwelt this issue more specifically in his independence day speech on 15th August 2017 by saying that we need to create a New India which will be free from corrosion of poverty, dirt, corruption, terrorism, casteism, communalism, and this dream of New India has to be achieved by 2022, when the country will be celebrating its 75th Anniversary of Independence. It is in this context, we need to analysis the present economic status, the target for New India and the challenges ahead to fulfill the dream of our beloved Prime Minister.

Indian Economy - Present Status

India is the fastest growing country in the World today. According to the World Economic Outlook: (IMF April 2019), the GDP growth rate of India in 2018 was 7.1 percent as against 6.6 percent in China. In forthcoming years 2019 and 2020, the growth rate of China will decline to 6.3 percent and 6.1 percent whereas in the same period India’s growth rate will climb by 7.3 percent and 7.5 percent. The global growth rate during the corresponding period of 2019 and 2020 will be 3.3 percent and 3.6 percent and that of US will be 1.8 percent and 1.7 percent only.

India has already become the fifth largest global economy and will become the third largest economy by 2030. Our economy is on a continuously rising trend and it is likely to increase from the present level of US $ 2.9 trillion to US $ 5 trillion in 2025 and further to US $ 10 trillion by 2032. Our GDP on purchasing power parity (PPP) is UD $ 11.41 trillion and it is already the third largest after China (1st) and US (2nd).

Indian economy is undergoing transformation through Innovation. The engine of growth is human skill whereby new inventions and Innovation in the field of agriculture, Science and technology will enable all round development in manufacturing, agriculture and Services sector through creative destruction. New India will boldly face the challenges of artificial intelligence and convert the same into opportunities by giving due importance to skill development and by providing adequate support to startups and by creating world-class infrastructure and through rural-urban connectivity.

Challenges and the road Ahead

The First and foremost we should bear in mind the challenges of poverty and unemployment and specially the problem of income inequality. Although India is on the way to become a strong economy but our per capita income is still very low and in the global index of per capita income (IMF, World Economic Outlook - Oct. 2018). India is placed at the very low position of 145 out of 193 countries, with per capita income of US $ 2188 as against China which is positioned at 72 with per capita income of US $ 10099. In 2023 India’s per capita income is projected to be US $ 3040 with marginal improvement of it’s ranking from 145 to 139 as against China’s projected per capita income of US $ 13780 with its ranking at 69.

The Second important area of concern is Human development index (HDI), prepared by United Nations Development Programme ( UNDP) for 171 countries of which India’s rank in 2018 is 130 which is 86 for China, for USA it is 13, for Germany it is 5, and in Japan it is 19. Norway is at the first position and Malawi (Africa) is at the lowest 171, Sri Lanka is at 76, Brazil at 79, much better than India.

Broadly the HDI speaks about the standard of living, education, life expectancy, quality of nutritious food, drinking water to common people. GDP growth and the size of the economy alone is not the real economic indicator for the prosperity or the development of the nation. We have seen that China, USA, Germany, Japan, and India, are the top five economies but on HDI parameters Germany alone is near to comparison with its gross national income where it is 4th and on HDI it is 5th. All other four countries including USA, Japan, China and India are nowhere near to their respective position in the size of the economy. Therefore under Antyodaya Yogna, New India will thrive to minimize this gap.

The Third major area of concern is the global innovation Index (GII) and India’s poor positioning. Although it has started improving under the present regime and this would be one of the major area of focus through skill India project and by encouraging the startups. A cursory look at the 11th edition of the GII 2018 report published by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Geneva, we find the mention of the word “ Energizing the world with Innovation” which is key to success for any nation in the present knowledge driven economy. India’s rank in the GII-2018 is 57 out of the survey of 126 countries. The rank of US is 6, Germany 9, Japan 13 and China 17 which shows that in the top five economic power, India’s position needs to be improved substantially under the New India initiative by more spending on Research & Development.

Therefore New India initiatives are required for making the country free from Corruption, free from Poverty and free from clutches of unemployment and this can happen only through development and good governance for a glorious India.

New India and West Bengal

Under the overall administrative structure of co-operative federalism there is a need for constructive and creative co-operation in Center and the State. The State Govt. is in confrontation mood for all positive initiatives of the Central govt., be it for the benefit of farmer or for the workers in the unorganized sector or for poor people for their health insurance.

Unfortunately, the downhill journey which began in 1969 is continuing for past fifty years in West Bengal despite there being increase in share of taxes from 32% to 42% as per the recommendations of the 14th finance Commission. The state is under financial emergency type of situation with increase in the debt from Rs 193,000 crore in 2011 to Rs. 4 lakh crore by now. The New India initiatives can definitely bring back the state economy from industrial sickness to a rejuvenated and healthy investment climate but this requires a positive approach and a political Will which can only happen through a change in regime through the democratic process.