Thank you for reading LatinNews' chosen article from the LatinNews Daily - 18 November 2024
On 16 November the annual leaders’ summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum (Apec) was held in Peru’s capital Lima, attended by heads of state including US President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping.
The Apec summit featured calls for trade cooperation that were overshadowed by the prospect of former US president Donald Trump (2017-2021) returning to the White House in January. A second Trump presidency could strain Apec, whose three Latin American members – Mexico, Peru, and Chile – may be tempted to deepen their relationship with China if the US raises trade barriers as Trump has promised. A pivot to China is unlikely in Mexico, given the country’s economic dependency on the US, but already appears to be underway in Peru, where President Xi inaugurated the new Chancay mega-port on 14 November.
- The Apec summit, attended by 16 heads of state plus representatives from a further five countries, was dominated by the issue of member states’ relations with China and the US. President Biden cut a diminished figure at the summit as attention shifts towards Trump, who has promised to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese goods and 20% tariffs on imports from other countries.
- Newly restricted trade with the US could drive Apec members, as well as other countries in Latin America, further into the arms of China. President Xi appeared to dominate the summit and used his speech to urge Apec members to “tear down the walls impeding the flow of trade”. Ahead of the summit, Xi inaugurated Peru’s new Chancay mega-port, which is expected to boost China’s trade not only with Peru, but also with neighbouring countries such as Brazil, Chile, and Ecuador.
- A joint declaration issued at the end of the summit highlighted “significant changes affecting areas such as trade and investment, environment, including climate change, food security, and energy security”. It said that “effective multilateral cooperation is even more important in this context”.
- However, the declaration’s promise “to work to deliver a free, open, fair, non-discriminatory, transparent, inclusive and predictable trade and investment environment” is likely to be severely tested under a second Trump presidency. Mexico is particularly vulnerable to new trade barriers, not least given that the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will come up for review in 2026. The Apec summit was not attended by Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum, possibly due to lingering tensions regarding the impeachment and arrest of Peru’s former president Pedro Castillo (2021-2022).
- Trump’s return could spell changes for other countries with free trade agreements with the US, such as Colombia, Peru, and Chile. Trump’s transactional style could result in particular pressure on Colombia to tackle cocaine production, with coca eradication efforts having been weakened since President Gustavo Petro took office in 2022.
- The Apec summit had threatened to be disrupted by protests against extortion and insecurity. President Dina Boluarte’s government went to significant lengths to prevent this. A huge police presence in Lima was reinforced by US troops, after Peru’s congress approved the entry of 600 US military personnel during the summit. The government also declared a public holiday from 14-16 November in Lima and the neighbouring provinces of Callao and Huaral, reducing the impact of strikes by the transport sector.
Looking Ahead: Biden and Xi will attend the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro from 18-19 November, where the US, China, and Russia – represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov – will continue their efforts to build diplomatic alliances in Latin America. Guest participants at the G20 summit will include Petro, Bolivia’s President Luis Arce, Chile’s President Gabriel Boric, Paraguay’s President Santiago Peña, and Uruguay’s President Luis Alberto Lacalle Pou.
Thank you for reading the chosen article from our LatinNews Daily. For access to LatinNews’ full portfolio of reports, you are very welcome to sign up for a 14-day free trial.
