PJM Serves Up Its Traditional Holiday Dish: Power

PJM will be bringing its signature dish to your home this Thanksgiving, providing the power that makes turkey, stuffing and pies possible, and keeps the fridge running for days of leftovers.

Just like the 65 million customers it serves, PJM has been planning for Thanksgiving, a day like no other when it comes to forecasting how much electricity will be needed and when. The holiday joins Black Friday, Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in getting its own special treatment by PJM load forecasters.

It’s on those days that two key ingredients, human behavior and weather, decide the flavor of the forecast.

First, offices, schools and many commercial establishments are closed, making this Thursday in November more like a weekend day, with less electricity demand overall.

Energy usage ramps up a bit later than a typical November day, as folks sleep in. But then, the ovens start switching on, leading to the peak, usually around 11 a.m., which is much earlier than normal. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, about 68% of homes use electricity for cooking.

The peak forecast for this year is 89,491 MW at 11 a.m., though that estimate will be fine-tuned as the day approaches. The average November weekday since 2021 has seen electricity usage peak at 94,711 MW at 7 p.m. – a typical usage pattern driven by falling evening temperatures combined with people turning on lights, cooking dinner, doing laundry, and otherwise using electronics and appliances at home.

A morning peak is one of the characteristics that sets Thanksgiving apart. Usage then dips in the afternoon until around 6 p.m., presumably as cleanup starts, or maybe folks gather around a football game before guests start hitting the road. Regardless, those loads remain much lower than a typical November evening.

Weather also plays a role – the colder the day, the more electricity will be consumed. Also according to the Energy Information Administration, 52% of homes use electricity for primary or secondary heating.

The preliminary weather forecast has temperatures in the 40s for this Thanksgiving, with likely more cloud cover than last year, which impacts the output of solar generators.

Real-time grid conditions are available year-round on pjm.com and on the PJM Now app.

This article also appears at PJM Inside Lines.