Planetary Extinction & Kessler Syndrome (PASQAL Hackathon)

You might ask yourself: why would Kessler Syndrome have anything to do with planetary extinction? At first glance, one might think it is entirely decoupled from the other nodes of our QUBO Quantum Model. However, it is, in fact, highly coupled. The connection lies in the root cause—overconsumption. This overconsumption manifests in several ways:

• Short-term goals: Prioritizing profit, national pride, or technological dominance.
• Failure to account for cumulative impacts: Treating orbital debris as mere "pollution" without recognizing its long-term consequences.
• Lack of global governance: The absence of effective management for shared resources.

Kessler Syndrome Cascade Risk

The Kessler Syndrome serves as a stark illustration of overconsumption, mirroring the unsustainable practices that plague Earth's ecosystems. In space, the unregulated and excessive deployment of satellites, combined with the lack of robust debris management, has created a precarious orbital environment. This overuse of a shared resource reflects the same principles that drive ecological degradation on Earth, such as deforestation, overfishing, and the accumulation of plastic waste. Orbital space, much like the planet’s natural resources, has been treated as infinite and free. This mindset has led to overcrowding and the risk of cascading failures, where one collision triggers another—akin to a chain reaction in a fragile ecosystem.

As shown in the graph below, the orbital debris density steadily increases over time, represented by the blue line, while the cascade risk grows exponentially, depicted by the red dashed line. This illustrates the escalating likelihood of collision-triggered chain reactions in Earth's orbit as debris accumulates. By 2045, marked by the green dashed line, the situation reaches a critical threshold, emphasizing the need for immediate action to manage and mitigate orbital debris effectively.

As a result, resource exhaustion in space is highly representative of resource exhaustion on Earth. Both scenarios may lead to similar timeframes of collapse, a phenomenon our team refers to as "death by a thousand cuts."

The loss of satellite orbit capability would be a significant blow to modern society, affecting communications, navigation, weather forecasting, and Earth observation. While many alternatives exist, none fully replicate the global reach, real-time capabilities, and cost-effectiveness of satellites. The most realistic solution likely involves a combination of alternatives (e.g., high-altitude platforms, fiber networks) and proactive efforts to clean and manage orbital debris to preserve the utility of near-Earth space.