Please Don’t Remember These Predictions a Year From Now
This is a short snippet of Bloomberg Opinion Today, the domestication of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions, by Jessica Karl . Read today's newsletter in full here or subscribe to get Bloomberg Opinion Today in your inbox.
Today’s Agenda
The Horses Are Alive and Well
The nice thing about making predictions in a newsletter is that this email will end up in your trash or spam folder in a matter of days, easily forgotten in an abyss of digital receipts and marketing ploys. Nobody is going to pull up this note to make sure all my predictions are right. But a century ago, they didn’t have it as lucky. People shared their predictions in print instead. And in 1924, people thought some pretty weird things would happen in 2024, according to these newspaper clippings from Paul Fairie, a Canadian researcher and author based in Calgary:
While I do wish I could forge a diamond ring with an $86 bag of sugar, I am glad that the horse extinction thing didn’t pan out. Clearly, it’s not easy making predictions for the century ahead, nevertheless a year ahead. In the spirit of accountability, I’ve made a 2024 Bloomberg Opinion-themed Bingo card for us to follow. You can even print it out, just like the olden times. It’s a one-of-a-kind roundup that’s peppered with politics, pop culture and everything in between. Seriously: Who else would put Timothée Chalamet and The Business Roundtable on the same board?
Although it’s too late to include a square about Harvard President Claudine Gay’s resignation (that happened this afternoon), Adrian Wooldridge did allude to the possibility in his column (free read) earlier today. His other predictions include the domestication of AI (think trusted virtual assistants scheduling your haircut), “the Trump comet,” the fall of defense dinosaurs such as Raytheon, and Chinese advances in hypersonic missiles, which already can travel five times the speed of sound. In India, meanwhile, Andy MUKHERJEE says the Narendra Modi government — expected to maintain power in this year’s election — will help mint not one but two centi-billionaires in 2024. “Expect a further consolidation of wealth in the hands of Mukesh Ambani, Asia’s richest businessman, and Gautam Adani, his closest rival,” he says.
When it comes to the US economy, Matthew Yglesias is quite optimistic, writing that falling mortgage rates and a strong stock market will make 2024 an outstanding year. Claudia Sahm , too, says the jobs market is in “much better balance” due to more workers joining the workforce. But Allison Schrager sees it a bit differently: “This year will mark the end of the free-lunch economy,” she writes, pointing to the dearth of savings-rich households and a labor market that may be weaker than it appears. If the Fed pursues rate cuts this year, there may be some unfortunate trade-offs. “Bringing inflation down to 2% will mean inflicting damage to the economy, in 2024 and beyond,” she warns.
What about the apocalypse? A New Year’s Bingo card would be incomplete without a reference to some sort of world-ending event, whether it be an asteroid impact, environmental collapse, pandemic, global thermonuclear war or, perhaps most likely, AI Armageddon. Luckily for us, Aaron Brown — a well-seasoned risk manager — has a guide about how to handle threats posed by AI. “The conventional computer controlling a nuclear power plant might cause a meltdown in the plant, but it can’t fire nuclear missiles, crash the stock market or burn your house down by turning your empty microwave on. But malevolent intelligence could be an emergent phenomenon that arises from the interaction of many AI implementations, controlling almost everything,” he predicts. More immediately, Parmy Olson sees AI becoming a major propaganda tool ahead of the 2024 US presidential election. By making AI image-generator Midjourney increasingly more powerful, CEO David Holz has “laid the groundwork for fake images to proliferate,” she writes.
But before you go calling Mark Zuckerberg to see if he has room in his underground bunker in Hawaii, I’d encourage you to hear out Paul Davies , who says doomsday fear-mongering is sooo 2023. “We’ve had a wealth of political rhetoric in recent years leaning into the language of Armageddon,” he writes. “In 2024, we should encourage each other to focus on ... immediate and solvable problems.” Like, say, figuring out how we can get our beds to automatically fling us out in the morning? That could be fun.
Bonus Year-Ahead Economy Reading:
Further Reading
If you trick people into getting surgeries to implant fake medical devices in their bodies, is that securities fraud? — Matt Levine
If you raised your glass to a happy new year while missiles rained down on Kyiv, beware of your blindfolds. — Niall Ferguson
Although Israel’s court managed to reinforce the separation of powers, Netanyahu will stay determined. — Noah Feldman
Inflation isn’t just a change in consumer prices, it’s the struggle to make ends meet. — Kathryn Anne Edwards
Why did Ukraine attack a railway thousands of miles away from its border with Russia? — Hal Brands
Big breakthroughs in fusion, Crispr and astronomy made 2023 a special year in science. — Faye Flam
Voters’ fear of immigrants is fueling a new fascist threat in the West. — Max Hastings
Can apprenticeships restore the American Dream? — Romesh Ratnesar
Notes: Please send 2024 Bingo cards and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.