Power based on a strategic commodity is fleeting, i.e. in Afghanistan, horses faded out, then Petrol power will , and finally Trump hot air too
Here we go with the lessons of history. Right now, MAGA considers Trump hot air to be an inexhaustible source of power, with all the world agog, at this trembling of nation states to the inexhaustible blowing of hot air, from DONALD TRUMP. Alas, all good things must come to an end
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Afghanistan’s Taliban government accepted a $10 billion investment in the country’s mines last year. The funds came from a Chinese company, part of a years-long effort by the world’s second-largest economy to get its hands on Afghanistan’s metals and minerals. Beijing wants lithium, a key input for the new economy of smartphones and EVs. Some experts estimate that Afghanistan’s lithium, as well as other metals, could be worth as much as $1 trillion, a lifeline for a country that for years has labored at the lowest end of the UN’s measures of human development.
It wouldn’t be the first time that natural resources have revived Afghanistan’s prospects. Not that long ago, Afghanistan was a booming trade hub. Its prosperity was primarily based on a single strategic commodity: the horse.
But when the world no longer needed horses, Afghanistan’s fortunes rapidly sank—and that should be a warning for economies that rely on today’s strategic commodity, oil.
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and here is the capper
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Then, like the oil trade today, the horse trade was hugely profitable. A horse might cost as little as 100 rupees (then worth about 11 grams of silver) in Afghanistan, but could go for as much as 500 rupees in export markets. And much like the Gulf ports of today, opulent communities of global traders set up shop in Kabul, giving the city a cosmopolitan touch.
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Alas, by the 20th century, this pot of gold was OUT OF COMMISSION and Afghanistan never recovered.
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DITTO, the same fate may await the OIL baronies
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MIT predicts the scale of stranded assets from fossil fuel production to be as high as $30 trillion—far higher than whatever was left behind by the end of the horse.
A world economy that relies just a little bit less on oil—let alone one that removes its importance entirely—will radically erode the power and influence of today’s petrostates, much in the same way the end of the horse ended the power of the Afghan kings.
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And HERE COMES MAGA, SOLELY deriving its power from the hubris and bales of scorching HOT air from one power source, DONALD TRUMP
Alas, Xi of China, realizing that TRUMP HOT AIR< is not a strategic asset for CHINA, decided to bail on the January 20th 2025 ceremony in Washington DC
Will MAGA, and hopefully not the USA, crater, as TRUMP HOT AIR lacks the devastating effect to make Xi of China tremble? Will the BRICS tremble at Trumps mouth, or will this new power source become as inconsequential to international relations as Afghan horses ? Stay tuned
Andrew Beckwith, PhD
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