Pre-COP: what you need to know before next month’s global stocktake

With less than a month to go until COP28 UAE , the political space in Europe and across the world is filling up with discussions on climate. This year is set to be an important one as it will mark the first global stocktake. This is a vital component of reaching the Paris Agreement goals. It links progress on the all-important nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the outcome of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and highlights what still needs to be done to achieve it.

What has already been touched on by bodies like the @International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the @European Environmental Agency, the @World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the @International Energy Agency (IEA), however, is not encouraging: we have already warmed the globe by 1.1°C and, if all emissions were to stop today, we would still overshoot the 1.5°C target. The IEA projects that on current trajectories we would reach 2.4°C by 2100 which is well above the acceptable limit for humanity. The veracity of discussions taking place in the lead up to this COP are therefore reasonable. The outcomes, however, remain elusive. As the global stocktake approaches, we are outlining at what you need to know in this pre-COP period.

Is 1.5 still alive?

Keeping 1.5°C within reach will require swift and concerted action. Time is not on our side. The IPCC in its AR6 Synthesis Report this year highlights that urgent, ambitious action is needed to secure a liveable sustainable future for all. As discussed at last week’s European Climate Stocktake, this means that global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must peak by 2025 at the latest to keep the target alive. In addition, by the end of the decade global GHGs must be reduced by 43%, whereas by 2035, 60% must be cut to reach net-zero by 2050. According to the IEA’s latest World Energy Outlook, more must be done to bend the emissions curve downward towards 2030, despite a projected peak in energy-related emissions by the mid-2020s.

Europe, representing roughly 7% of the global GHGs, is charging ahead on climate action. The implementation of the Fit for 55 package will bring Europe’s emissions down 57% from 1990 levels by 2030. By early next year too, Europe’s new Climate Commissioner, Wopke Hoekstra, will present the College of Commissioners with a 2040 target of at least a 90% reduction in emissions. Although Europe’s NDC will not be updated before 2025, it is still the most ambitious continent on climate action and is leading the global effort.

Where to from here?

In the lead up to COP28, Europe clearly remains committed to being the global leader on climate action. Heading into the conference, the top three priorities were agreed in an Environment Council meeting earlier this month and in the European Council last week. All three revolve around mitigation: tripling renewables, doubling energy efficiency, and peaking fossil fuel consumption ahead of 2030 with a full phase-out afterwards.

Positively, the IEA mentions that 1 degree of temperature rise was saved in the past eight years thanks to the scale-up of clean technologies like solar, wind and electric vehicles (EVs) which have a strong hold in Europe. To stay within the physical limit of 1.5 degrees, the IEA encourages accelerating the deployment of these technologies. So too does, Eurelectric, with a small caveat.

Tripling the share of renewables and adding a vast number of electrified solutions to our energy system needs to be complemented by stable decarbonised baseload and grid modernisation. At the European Climate Stocktake, the European Environmental Agency highlighted the critical role of electricity grids, and the need for more integrated planning, interconnections and smart energy solutions – as reflected by their latest report with the European Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER). This was reiterated by the IEA too with their special report on electricity grids and their role in a secure energy transition.

Europe’s Deal to lead global climate action

While the European power sector has a wide variety of solutions to deliver on its objectives, the recent pandemic and geopolitical events have increased the complexity of the transition, even compromising investments in decarbonised value chains. At a time when the global order is challenged, electrification nonetheless remains a key enabler in achieving security of supply and decarbonisation. This is why the European Green Deal has put electrification at its core – a feat that the Electrification Alliance awarded Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson for based on her outstanding contributions to accelerate the direct electrification of Europe’s economy. This is also why the European Green Deal is the Deal that enables Europe to lead on global climate action.

The Green Deal is the most robust climate framework globally and that ought to be celebrated. The best way to celebrate it is by implementing it, our Secretary General, Kristian Ruby said at the European Climate Stocktake. At the same time, though, he also warned that with current barriers we are reaching the limits of how fast we can go. Ensuring that electricity is reliable when the entire economy relies on it, massive investments in grids, generation capacities, storage and flexibility solutions are needed. Thus, he recommended:

• Ensuring a just energy transition. EU policymakers should be mindful of the asymmetric impacts of energy and climate policies and avoid further tightening of the emissions trading system (ETS), which could lead to higher electricity prices and thus disincentivise electrification.
• Being cautious about the role of carbon removals. EU policymakers should ensure that they do not hamper efforts to decarbonise but play a complementary role in delivering negative emissions and capturing residual CO2 from sectors where no decarbonisation solution is currently available.
• Saving energy through electrification, not demand destruction. As Europe reduces its reliance on fossil fuel imports and replaces them with clean energy sources, it is important to look at the next steps to energy efficiency, ensuring that electrified end-use sectors continue to function and thrive.

Next up

COP28 will take place in Dubai between 30 November and 12 December. Discussions, as mentioned, will centre around the global stocktake and Europe will press ahead with its three priorities. However, another point on the agenda is the Loss and Damage Fund which got its own chapter this year in the annual United Nations Adaptation Gap Report launched yesterday.

The report highlights significant financing going forward, titled Underfinanced. Underprepared. Already last year, the report highlighted that adaptation finance needs $160 billion to $340 billion (€150-320 billion) a year by 2030 and $315 billion to $565 billion (€297-532 billion) by 2050. Positively, the incoming Belgian Presidency of the Council of the European Union has announced that one of their key priorities will be adaptation measures. Moreover, the EU will present targets for 2040 in the first quarter of 2024, but the updated NDCs also require targets for 2035. What is next then, is a lot of work and little time. Hence, this year’s COP is a pressing one on the agenda of many, and the world is watching to see if world leaders will steer us in the direction of relief and reduction.

This week's edition written by:

Nicholas A. Steinwand, Strategic Communications Officer - Eurelectric

and

Ioana Petcu , Policy Advisor - Eurelectric

Other stories you might like