Predicting The Next Five Years in Technology
Robert Bluestein
Account Executive, Cloud, Datacenter, and Cyber-Security Sales with both Direct and Channel Management
Part of the fun of being a Technologist is to foresee the future. I have always wanted to work for a company that embraces change and remains on the front end of the technology curve. Making predictions about the future in technology and analyzing technology trends is a great way for companies to help their customers manage the constant world of technology trends.
This article seeks to take a look at the world in five years and what the characteristics are of companies that will out-produce and outshine the current landscape. At the end of the day, it’s about the merging of three crucial monoliths. The first one is the Customer Vision. Which reseller has taken the time become a true partner to their customers? How many take the time to learn the customer’s vision? Furthermore – how many of the VARS in the world have taken the time to learn about the Vision-Statements of the technology that they sell?
The Second great mountain is whether the Vendor-Suppliers have tight relationships – AND are on top of the R&D field in multiple areas. Successful VARS want supplier-vendors who are at the top of their game and show as much financial stability as possible. But customers also want standardization – and knowing that ahead of time is a real plus!
The Third and final piece is how well does the VAR train the customers in understanding what THEIR Strengths and weaknesses are? This requires a constant communication and uncovering of customer challenges, no matter how small they may be. For instance, I had an account here in Austin that had 2500 employees and was approached by an IT Manager asking me about a hardware refresh for his division. But I knew the rest of the landscape and the things he was asking for were not consistent with what their VP of IT had set out to do with me two years before.
While I certainly could have fulfilled the request for the small amount of systems and software, once I had the VP of IT’s attention, we were able to get everyone in a room and once on the same page, I took a solution of about 30-TB of mirrored storage to a much larger deployment and included laptops and tablets as well. We also added extra Oracle licensing and brought to-term over 200 other licenses.
What Verticals Face the Biggest Changes?
One of the largest entities to see this at work is in the medical field. Some analysts predict that there will be a chain of smaller walk-up clinics which support a chain of hospitals. There will be a unified look and feel to the consumer, larger and larger chains. Soon, there will be only a few megalithic hospitals around. Whether or not we are willing to risk hundreds of millions of potentially breach-able entries is simply going to be less-and-less of a concern given the new security platforms that are assisting in Data Collection.
Vast amounts of data are still kept on paper, stuck on proprietary databases, and then sort it out. Data Quality goes down. But ultimately there is going to be a unification of patient records despite the resistance to it now. Thus far, the Medical community has prevented the dissemination of patient information by keeping woefully poor records. This perhaps, is not their intent, but it is the by-product of a slow-to-market and costly transformation that has not yet happened. Inconsistent means of archiving and replication continued to hamper the medical IT world.
Secondly, the distributive nature of communication has transformed and brought us close together. When a business grows and has more intelligence and data, it can make better decisions. This can only happen if there are resources that know how to properly synthesize it. If you don’t have a staff that can handle this, you are left with a vast amount of business intelligence that is a strain on an existing IT Team.
Many companies that were caught in the explosive growth in the 2000s were using both CRM and ERP as huge data-dumps. These were incredibly common in the manufacturing space as well as in the SMB->Enterprise space. Despite the fact that having more and more data is considered a good thing, it created almost as many challenges as it has created benefits. Now, hoarded information that is often duplicated and triplicated is jammed into Storage to be sorted out at a later date. (Which has greatly benefitted both NetApp and EMC)
Although it is beginning to shift, most hospitals are Monolithic or at best, Duo-Lithic in Infrastructure Architecture. Single points of contact, single geo-centers where information is gathered, managed, replicated, and stored are still 80-90% in a slow-to-adopt Medical vertical. Consider the opportunities there!
If only we could extract that single point of storage and retention and make that available to all of our staff! And while we are at it, don’t leave out the Administration, the Logistics, the HR department! You can modernize your entire hospital, making changes in real-time, and anyone, anywhere, with proper identification can access the data! It’s all right there, in the Cloud.
When I was in Western Africa in 1999, the hotel I was staying at was very excited that they got a new computer for their front desk. Knowing that I was in the technology business, they asked if I would stay there while they unboxed it. When they did finally unbox it, they were met with an unwelcome surprise.
It was loaded with software that the hotel employees did not know how to use, and it was cumbersome as well as slow. I could see that the excitement on their faces as they plugged it in for the first time was met with an overwhelming and daunting challenge. They had the technology, and had no idea how to use it. No one had even used a computer keyboard before this.
Now the question is how much do we know about the applications we use every day? Are we even using the things we pay for? It’s an interesting dynamic, because companies that can truly offer Software as a Service, a Pay-as-You-Go plan that actually charges for the individual usage remain one step ahead. It creates other opportunities such as Licensing-As-A-Service and even Platform-As-A-Service as well.
Whether it is Hotmail, Yahoo, or Gmail, people everywhere have even a basis for online communication. Some of the medicines we use here in the United States come from around the globe. Now, in real-time, the competitive chain of hospitals that wants to stay one step ahead of its competition, won’t be caught short on pharmaceuticals such as the run made on Cipro in the aftermath of the 9-11 attacks.
The simplicity of applications allows anyone to use this, and because you are entering the information on the spot, there is no more need to collect massive amounts of cumbersome paper. Furthermore, the ability to get information quickly is saving lives. Untrained medical procedures are being performed to treat injuries in mass-causalities situations, all at the hands of a mobile form.
Here are some of the trends that I see changing as a result of the Cloud. Over 52% of the Fortune 500 Companies believe Cloud is a Game-Changer in the way they build from within as well as the manner in which they compete, stay resilient and reduce the cost of Back-Up and Recovery.
1) More Applications are Being Designed as Cloud-Ready
Rather than having to migrate existing applications to the Cloud, newer applications such as MS Azure are being built Cloud Optimized. Day-to-Day applications where information-sharing is a necessity are going to begin to take shape in the Cloud and increase in importance.
A particular focus will be in Cloud Based Networking. Customers are looking to reduce their hardware footprint and Cloud-Based Networking promises to be a technology innovation that has the chance to be very disruptive to traditional brick-and-mortar implementations.
Cloud networking is quite new networking and a paradigm for building and managing secure private networks over the public Internet by utilizing global cloud computing infrastructure. In simple terms, Cloud networking and traditional network functions and services including connectivity, security, management and control, are pushed to the cloud and delivered as a service. This is a landscape-changing creation. Cloud Networking removes a great deal of hardware infrastructure and thereby reduces management complexity and cost.
2) Companies that deal with Cyber Security and Cloud Safety will Grow Exponentially
Consider these questions as you think about your own company. If you have one or more of these questions, you will certainly want to understand the value and TCO of Cloud Security!
- How do I address new demands of my business — like cloud and mobile devices?
- How do I map access control methods to business risk and the needs of my users?
- How can I centrally manage, control and administer all my users and endpoints?
- Who controls my user data? Is there a way to track this activity?
- How can I incorporate additional security layers to help me further fortify against threats?
- And how do I keep it all practical and cost-effective?
I am often asked which industry is the one to get into for the next five-to-ten years and the answer is easy. Get into ANYTHING that protects, defends, and preserves Infrastructure technology. Every day we hear of Cyber-Attacks, Loss of Sensitive Data and Disruption of Business due to Malware, Ransomware and outright Cyber-Vandalism. But there are steps to be taken if it is to be done correctly.
The first one is the act of education. Companies need to invest more time in training their employees, because what so often is considered logical can also be completely unknown to all employees. Properly backing-up your systems, password hygiene, multi factor authentication are largely misunderstood by employees. Get everyone onto the right page. Aside from in-class training, mandatory exams, and regular IT checks, self-education should be a part of every company foundation.
I know, you are thinking, ''the cost in time, money and resources' for this is prohibitive. This might be the case if Security was really all that complex. You don't need a lesson in how to lock your doors, just a reminder. You shouldn't need a lesson in password hygiene. (In terms of Best-Practice, Password Hygiene should be taught at all levels of a company.) You can use education to your advantage in other areas of your company while get the point across at the same time.
Some companies specialize in dual factor authentication. A rapidly growing company here in Austin is Duo Security, make DFA simple and easy to understand. Moving away from single-factor authentication (passwords alone), use more secure methods include using multi-factor authentication to verify your users’ identities.
These classes should be done at regular intervals. Recent security flaws in Windows-10 has created yet other avenues in which hackers can get into your company. In addition, the proliferation of multiple Endpoint devices, many of which are not cleared, are damaging to the IT Infrastructure of a company. Again, Duo Security has a great answer for this in its ability to track of out-of-date and unpatched software with an access security tool that can automatically check devices and allow you to block, warn or notify users to update their operating systems, browsers and plugins before they log into your applications. (Duo's Trusted Access)
They court some great logos too. Consider who some of their customers are: Facebook, Easy, Safelight, and True Religion. These are companies where security issues are prevalent in many different areas, from CRM to Distribution and Real-Time Supply Chain. For Facebook, the integrity of the personal data entrusted to them is integral to the overall success of the company. Duo Security was evaluated over several other solutions and won the day!
Gemalto is a world-wide company that specialized in multi-factor authentication as well. Diving very deeply into Cloud and Cloud Security, Gemalto has been helping customers stay in compliance while expanding into Encryption and Data-Base management. Gemalto offers the only complete enterprise encryption portfolio that provides persistent protection of sensitive data at all critical points in its lifecycle.
There are other methods as well. Some mobile apps may provide two-step verification using the app itself. For example, Twitter’s mobile app allows you to enable “login verification.” Whenever you attempt to log into Twitter from another computer or device, you’ll have to verify that login attempt from the mobile app on your phone. Twitter is checking to ensure you have access to your phone before you attempt to log in.
Apple’s two-step verification works similarly, although it doesn’t use an app — it uses iOS itself. Whenever you attempt to log in from a new device, you can receive a one-time-use code sent to a registered device, like your iPhone or iPad.
The education of the world is making it possible for students to learn at a faster rate than their teachers, thus changing the way in which we teach and the way we learn. Even now, the Cloud is making such an impact that we can learn anything through the massive open and on-line courses being offered. This is opening thousands of new avenues for individual instructors to make money offering tutorials and even full-blown classes.
3) Unified Communications is already here. Our children already know more about compute than we did. As we have seen, learning becomes a collaborative event when we are accessing the Cloud, and it is reshaping our technology. Sugata Mitra, the famed educational technologist (and so much more) helped develop the idea of building a School in the Cloud well before it became a popular phrase.
Companies that specialize in broadband and infiniband communications are finding the answers. As Cisco CEO John Chambers said, ‘The Internet of Everything is here!’’ The impact this is having on our education systems around the world is drastically reducing illiteracy and increasing scientific proficiency – especially in remote and hard to reach places.
And with the proliferation of Hand-Held devices, you can now have a mobile classroom anywhere, anytime. Social Media that has become our way of conversing with the world will now take on multiple verticals. People will evolve what they learn into a way to make money, increasing world economies and improving the lives of those who learn to leverage the technology. A forwardly strategic company will develop services that will show people how to make the most of their social medium.
It’s no secret that all of these mobile devices are requiring real-time service monitoring. Companies that are equipping their field-service teams with just-in-time communications direct with customers are seeing an explosive growth. Consider Cable-Providers and Home Detection Companies: The growth in these two markets at a residential level has been quadrupled since 2011.
Nothing’s worse than having to wait hours for a technician who doesn’t even know what you need, and then having to explain again what you need from them. With tablets and smartphones, your reps will constantly be alerted and notified if and when changes are made to work orders, or if work orders are cancelled, so reps and customers are always on the same page.
Clearly, Mobility as a Service is going to become more vital than ever before. Different software companies will be offering security and management applications that will manage both Android and I-Phone devices. But at the end of the day, it is simply about having happy customers and receiving positive feedback. This is Mobility-As-A-Service and it promises to receive all that it delivers – Happy customers, repeat business and First-Time-Fixes that not only yields greater profits but reduced costs dramatically.
3) The Education to Business Cross-Over
Trends in the use of Social Media all point to a developing infrastructure. Consider the proliferation of hand-held devices, all remaining in constant communication with contacts around the globe, transmitting business data in real-time. The result is that future infrastructure will look like will soon become a B2B medium and with that, software applications that will cross-over and perform as a Service. (We are already seeing that in other areas)
But now, companies that specialize in Servers, Storage and Switches – such as VBlock and Flexpod, will find themselves needing to change their model substantially. Imagine a scenario where there is no longer a need to provision anything in the Enterprise. The Server/Storage/Route/Switch will all be provisioned automatically, on-the-fly, in real-time, and without any impact to the end-user. Strategically this is a huge shift away from expensive Back-Up, Recovery, Replication and Archiving software.
If you are a consumer there is a good chance these Server/Storage/Switch companies are attempting to lock you into long-term license and renewal timelines. Despite all of the advantages that many of these applications provide, the complete transition to the Internet of Everything is making this a potentially unwise spend of money.
4) Hardware Becomes Basic
When handheld devices are in need of only an Internet connection and batteries, the emphasis on data-center becomes greatly increased. Every bit of unstructured data is deposited somewhere, and the importance of off-prem data-centers is ever more important.
Cloud datacenters will become much like a breathing and living organism with different states. The twinned technologies of abstracted software and commoditized hardware should combine to make datacenters function much more like ecosystems, with an over-arching system ruling equipment via software, with hardware controlled from a single point, but growing and shrinking according to workloads.
In 2007, I was working at VMWare and the movement toward Consolidation of Server Environments was underway. Financially, it made the most sense. With compression ratios being an extraordinary 20:1, the amount of money saved on server warrantees, real-estate and maintenance as well as Systems Management and Standardization shot VMWare into a leadership position in the technology field.
I can speculate that we might see the same trend toward Cloud Consolidation once we are well underway with the expansion of Datacenter. Hybrid Clouds will be organic, changing and adapting to the ever changing demands in various verticals. We have already seen the evolution beginning with the Medical and Educational sectors.
Hospitals and Clinics will begin to look much more universal than they do now. Patient data will always run the threat of compromise and a violation of Hippa Compliances. Applications like ERP and CRM for this industry, typically led by someone along the lines of McKesson, will become tablet-based and security encrypted, and all backed-up to data-centers.
5) Hybrid Cloud and the End of the Private Cloud
In addition, there has already been a run on Hybrid Cloud adoption. CIO’s are once again at the center of strategically growing their companies and being able to be Pro-Active rather than Reactive. Hybrid Cloud is the perfect solution for companies that want a combination of on-prem and off-prem Disaster-Recovery. As a result, due to the ease of management and the security challenges being met, we probably will see the end of a Private-Cloud Only platform.
New public cloud providers will have to quickly find a niche. The market is dominated by existing players who can spend billions on both R&D and marketing. Startups are leveraging new and emerging cloud technology, such environmentally sound DR and cooling while web-hosting. as a path for incremental growth. We’ll likely see the same pattern around data analytics services, data storage services, Internet of things (IoT), and other more recent technology trends.
As Cloud begins to take off in so many diverse ways, There will be more market convergence around Google, Amazon, and Microsoft. Of these three, perhaps the most surprising is Microsoft Azure on Office-365. There is little else to compete with such a robust platform from front-to-back and this is also helping companies realize their ROI. Of course, the drawbacks to Microsoft are the questions as to its overall scalability and upgrade paths. Once Microsoft answers these – especially through new innovations in MS-Dynamix, they will be part of most solutions.
Enterprises moving to public clouds are largely going with these three companies. Moreover, the big three are placing their technology bets in cloud computing right now, and this will continue for the foreseeable future.
6) IT Management Becomes Easier in the Cloud
The idea all along was to take the many fragmented pieces of a network and consolidate them for an ease of management across multiple locations. In the recent past, Systems Management was done at both a hardware and an application layer. Then came along Virtualization and management of the network could be done at that level.
But with the creation of virtualization came the sudden proliferation of hand-held devices, and then a new layer of management. The Cloud leads to new Innovation and Invention and with these, come new management. Testing and Development take on new parameters, especially with regression testing.
Companies that offer Management as a Service will become more and more important as the Cloud improves. Being able to manage and inventory your network from remote locations is a financial plus for many companies who are having to trim workforces.
Part of making Management as a Service successful is the ability to design help facilitate and automate the deployment and dynamic provisioning of hyperscale computing environments such as big-data workloads and cloud services.
More-and-more compute environments are using bare-metal as a service as a layer underneath Infrastructure as a Service. Metal As A Service is software which allows you to deal with physical hardware just as easily as virtual nodes. MAAS lets you treat physical servers like virtual machines in the cloud. Rather than having to manage each server individually, MAAS turns your bare metal into an elastic cloud-like resource.
What Will Be The Characteristics of The Most Successful IT-Resellers ?
- Service-Centric-Resellers: Even as I write, VARS are drawing up sides. Some will niche themselves in Security. Some will become Hosting in their specialty. But the landscape right now is beginning to divide and its falling to larger resellers that are offering more and more solutions and consultation that will emerge victorious. With IT Staffs shrinking across the board, VARS that offer Services such as Pre-Planning, Installation, Deployment and on-going management is a real asset.
- Financially Diverse VARS: In an era when it is important to ‘’lock-in’’ a customer to a long series of deals, being able to LEASE and show Return on Investment will keep customers coming back in an era when loyalty will be sacrificed elsewhere.
- Comprehensive VARS: If you had one reseller who could open up a consultative discuss over Operations, Management, Servers and Compute, BYOD and Cloud, amongst others, customers will stay with that reseller. Vendor-Supplier Relationships are something customers put a greater and greater emphasis on in terms of importance. The Kings of the Mountains are going to be those who can show and leverage expertise with multiple vendors and well demonstrated by dual visions.
- Blocking-and-Tackling: The VARS that can stay on top of everything else cannot forget the simple things. Relationship management, Road-Map sharing, and Communication, and of course, my biggest driver --- the use of Social Media to drive deeper into existing accounts!
In all cases, communication is key. Traditional VARS that have limited verticals that they target will fall to the wayside. The ‘Super-VARS’ as I call them, will be those who are anticipating the needs of the customers by anticipating the needs in THEIR businesses. Mutually working with customers and exchanging roadmap information is a fantastic way to remain in the VP and C-Level offices of customers.
I want to end this with the caveat that Virtual Reality and Cyber-Video are going to be huge as well. Yet they go in so many different and sprawling directions that these require special attention, and thus, be on the lookout for my next article, ''The Amazing Places Our Imagination Can Take Us.''