Predictions for the Economic Future and Other Great Analyst Articles

Great consolidation of articles that offer predictions for the economic future, the expansion of digital commerce, and remote work benefits.

Economic fallout due to COVID-19 is resulting in a rebound that’s revealing a large disparity between countries and sectors. Despite a widening variation in credit trends, though, the tech sector remains healthy.

In a survey conducted by McKinsey & Company, more than half of all executives who participated say economic conditions in their own countries will improve six months from now. 30% say they will worsen, which is the smallest share of respondents all year to expect declining conditions.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its Global Economic Forecasts for 2021 and warns of a “long, uneven” recovery predicting it will activate poverty and growth. The IMF expects the world economy to shrink by 4.4% in 2020, a slight improvement over June’s forecast. The New York Times validates these predictions reporting that we’ve entered a longer, slower grind that puts the economy at risk.

Gartner offers an optimistic view of future digital commerce and has identified five areas of expansion. Gartner forecasts that B2B buying will get “consumerized” to gain traction with younger professionals. They also expect that enterprise marketplaces will increase revenue.

A technology firm called Humanyze found several benefits from a stay-home workforce. Employees noted a reduction in work-related stress and negative emotions, along with increased confidence and well-being. Humanyze’s analysis of anonymous company e-mail, chat, and calendar data also found that working without an office has extended people’s working time by an average of 10–20%. Similar research, sponsored by Microsoft, in Europe saw a rise in productivity, but at the cost of a reduction in creativity.

I hope you find this quarterly consolidation of analyst insights helpful.

S&P Global Ratings: COVID-19 Impact: Key Takeaways From Our Articles

S&P Global Ratings published more than 700 articles analyzing the effects of COVID-19 on economic conditions and credit. This article summarizes reports reflecting 161 different data segments. While economic fallout has generally bottomed, the rebound reveals a disparity among countries and various industry sectors. The result is a widening variation in credit trends. So far, the technology sector faces minimal impacts from the pandemic, with new technologies such as 5G boosting tech credit profiles. 

Read the article in full here for more notable stats and key takeaways.

McKinsey & Company: The Coronavirus Effect on Global Economic Sentiment

The latest McKinsey Global Survey suggests a positive shift in economic sentiment. The firm finds that more than half of all executives surveyed say economic conditions in their own countries will improve six months from now. Only 30% expect more challenging times ahead, reinforcing a more optimistic outlook than past surveys. Researchers also found that respondents in every region, aside from those in developing markets, predict conditions will improve.

You can read the article in full here.

CNN Business: IMF Cuts its Global Economic Forecasts for 2021 and Warns of “Long, Uneven” Recovery

The International Monetary Fund reduced its forecasts for next year and currently predicts the world economy will shrink by 4.4% in 2020. However, that estimate reflects a slight improvement over June’s forecast. This optimism is driven by a stronger than expected bounce in the U.S. and Europe, accompanying eased lockdown restrictions and by China’s return to growth. The IMF expects a 5.2% increase in global output next year, down 0.2% from its previous report. It also notes the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has lowered its forecast for 2021, too.

You can read the article in full here.

TechRepublic: Gartner—These 5 Areas of Digital Commerce Will Be Transformed by COVID-19

Gartner identified five areas in digital commerce that are significantly impacted by COVID-19’s effects. Contactless purchasing is here to stay. Gartner predicts 80% of ordering and replenishment will be touchless by 2024. Gartner also expects virtual product “views” to grow significantly, fueled by advancements in augmented reality and new apps. This change in consumers’ buying habits will reduce the need for samples and showrooms and encourage more self-service when purchasing configurable products. Also, B2B buying will get “consumerized” to gain traction with younger professionals and increase enterprise marketplaces’ revenue.

You can read the article in full here.

The New York Times: The Pandemic Depression is Over. The Pandemic Recession Has Just Begun.

This NYT article suggests we’ve entered a longer, slower grind that puts the economy at risk for the foreseeable future. In the last few weeks, Shell announced it was cutting 9,000 positions, Disney - 28,000, and Raytheon - 15,000. Employment at corporate headquarters fell by 92,000 in March and April, with 4,000 more jobs lost in the months after. The New York Times states that the 3.9% contraction in these jobs, usually white-collar professional positions, is notably worse than the 2.4% drop during the 2008 recession.

You can read the article in full here.

Harvard Business Review: The Post-Pandemic Rules of Talent Management

The COVID-19 Pandemic has been a catalyst for change as a growing number of employees work from home. A technology firm called Humanyze mined company e-mail, chat, and calendar data anonymously to find that working without an office has extended people’s working time by an average of 10–20%. They also found a reduction in work-related stress and negative emotions. Employees also noted significant increases in confidence, well-being, and communication with close collaborators. In this article, the Harvard Business Review offers five salient trends to consider for an at-home workforce.

You can read the article in full here.

ZDNet: WFH Has Kept Us Productive, But it May Have Made us Less Creative

In Microsoft sponsored research, conducted by Boston Consulting Group and KRC Research, managers and employees across 15 European countries believe productivity has risen as a result of work from home measures. Other benefits included reduced costs and employee benefits around attire, commute, and personalized workspace. However, there are cultural impacts that include a drop in creativity, which is seen to be driven by a decline in in-person interaction.

You can read the article in full here.