Professor Anthony Turton and COVID-19

I have copied the piece by Prof Turton from a Facebook post which I think is of interest to everybody involved in the Water and Sanitation sector, so my thanks and appreciation go out to him again for being the warrior he is for seeking the truth!

"It has come to my attention that a certain person (name not mentioned here but well known to all in the water sector) is going around and suggesting that my information on sewage is incorrect insofar as the risk from COVID-19 is concerned.

Facts are always our friends, so here is an update on the situation as it is informed by science at this moment in time:

1) The CDC in America has put out a document clarifying the risk of infection via water. That risk is low according to the CDC. However, the CDC has as a frame of reference, a fully functional water treatment plant that is delivering water to a defined international standard. In South Africa that standard is SANS 241. Therefore, if our bulk potable water is delivered consistently to SANS 241 standard, then there is nothing to fear. This is where the Blue Drop Report comes in. So all municipalities in South Africa that have a known Blue Drop status consistent with SANS 241 are not a risk at all. Bulk water reticulation that does not have a SANS 241 status as shown in the Blue Drop Reports, are thus NOT within this category of safe water. It doesn't mean that the water carries a pathogen, but it does mean that the water is not regularly tested against a known standard, so the risk must be assessed accordingly.

2) The CDC in America confirms that there are known records of COVID-19 being found in human faeces, but then goes on to state that the risk is low. Once again, the assumption made within the CDC document is that a functional waste water treatment works (WWTW) will deal with the pathogen in terms of standard protocol. This is where the Green Drop Report comes in. Consequently where a given municipality has a known Green Drop status, measured against a defined standard, then there is nothing to be afraid of. The official data shows that in 2011 32 of the 1237 were compliant, but that 55% were non-compliant. This situation has changed dramatically since 2011, so assess your risk when reading the CDC document against the Green Drop status of every municipality discharging sewage effluent into the river upstream of the point from which your drinking water is abstracted. If all of those municipalities are Green Drop compliant, then the risk is low. 

3) To contextualise this from a risk perspective, you need to assess the following: (A) Is every single municipality on a given river upstream of the point of abstraction from where your drinking water is sourced Blue Drop compliant? If yes, then the risk is low, so sleep well tonight. But, if the answer is no, then jump to the next step of the risk assessment decision-making tree. (B) Is the bulk water provider from which you source your drinking water Blue Drop compliant? If yes, then the risk is low, even if there is upstream discharge of sewage effluent into the river that doesn't meet the Green Drop standard. 

4) Now for some hard science. COVID-19 is new, so it has not yet been fully researched and thus remains poorly understood from an environmental risk perspective. In science there is something known as the Precautionary Principle, which tells us that in the absence of more robust knowledge to the contrary, it is better to err on the side of caution.

5) So here is the first piece of hard science regarding COVID-19. In a recently published study of a cohort of 138 patients in Wuhan it was noted that in a statistically significant number of deaths, certain pre-existing conditions were present. One of those was diarrhoea. This does not mean to say that the patient became ill and then died from diarrhoea, but it tells us that before they became ill from COVID-19 this is what they suffered from. Interpretation is important and must always be done within context. For the record, here is the peer reviewed citation so Google it and read for yourself. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/water.html?fbclid=IwAR2HHyYXXqFy6vLPGFiU9FV5QcBNO2Ev2pqcxDpJn9N02Kk7zBEAfqG3TJY

6) In a separate study, also published in a peer reviewed scientific journal, the human digestive system was identified as a potential pathway for COVID-19. Again this doesn't mean that it is, but it does mean that it can be. This fact must be assessed in the context of the Blue Drop and Green Drop reports I have noted in Point 3 above. So, if (A) all upstream WWTWs are Green drop compliant, then there is no risk. And (B) if the bulk potable water is being produced from an entity with a known Blue Drop status, then there is no risk. For those interested in the citation here it is. Zhang, H., Kang, ZJ,, Gong, HY., et al. 2020. The digestive system is a potential route of 2019 nCoV infection: a bioinformatics analysis based on single-cell transcriptomes. Preprint. Posted online January 31, 2020. bioRxiv 927806. doi:10.1101/2020.01.30.927806

So to summarise, the human gut is a potential pathway to COVID-19 as shown by credible peer reviewed reports. It has been found in human faeces. The virus is new so not many studies have been done. We still have a lot to learn about the risk of transmission. The accepted Precautionary Principle tells us that in the absence of more robust knowledge, its best to err on the side of caution. We know that Green Drop status is found at best in a handful of WWTW's in South Africa, and we know that daily around 4.3 billion litres of inadequately treated sewage effluent is discharged into rivers nation-wide. We know that Blue Drop status of bulk water suppliers is only found in a handful of the biggest water boards. That water is then reticulated through the pipes and storage reservoirs of municipalities that may, or may not have, both a Green and Blue Drop status. We also know that DWS suspended both Green and Blue Drop reporting, so the fundamental fact is that we simply don't know what the status of any municipality is. So, while the CDC tells us that the risk of infection from either drinking water, or direct contact with river water is low, they (CDC) operate in a developed world paradigm where the default position is that all WWTW and bulk water producers will consistently function to a defined international standard. We are not within that context, so our risk profile differs somewhat from that presented by the CDC.

Facts are our friends, but Trolls aren't, because they undermine confidence in the public needing answers from credible scientists. 

Therefore evaluate what the Troll is saying about me in this light, just as my legal team is currently doing. But please be more gentle with the Troll than my legal team will be - just saying!"

I would appreciate any feedback!

John Allen

Gurumanzi (Pty) Ltd Reg 2012/06820/07 

Church Street, Johannesburg North 2188 

Rep. of South Africa

Mobile +27 82 559 0198

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