Prospect of a new government by January 2025 should give politicians and the public alike optimism - PoliMonitor CEO Sam Cunningham

It is now less than two years until the United Kingdom’s next General Election, with the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 repealing the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 meaning it must be held no later than January 2025. 

But while most political students, politicians and the public propagate the premise that the United Kingdom is a well functioning, multi-party system that witnesses an orderly and regular change of political Parties in power, the next General Election could erect an awkward milestone.

Because if the Conservative Party wins the next General Election it will mark half a century in power and winning Conservative leaders at the polls starting with Margaret Thatcher in 1979, with the only non-Conservative leader proving an anomaly to this rule, being Sir Anthony Charles Lynton Blair KG. Or Tony as he asked for our vote in 1997, 2001 and 2005. 

How might the UK feel should it find itself in 2030 after this 50 year blue streak, with only a dash of red and the Blair blip. I think the multi-party system mantle might be melting under the spotlight by that point. So what are the chances this will actually come to pass?

Until just 12 months ago it was looking decidedly likely the Conservatives would make it to their half century, with Johnson helping them bat their way to victory again in 2019 and 43.6% of the vote, their best result since Thatcher in 1979 (43.9%) and better even than Blair in 1997 (43.2%). Albeit this was only marginally better than May achieved in 2017 (42.3%) Johnson then helped them remain between 10 to 20 points ahead in the opinion polls until December 2021. 

But the growing list of calamities, scandals and police fines, combined with the arrival of Sir Keir Starmer appears to have changed their political fortunes and after nearly three years steadying the ship, Labour consistently led the Conservatives in the polls by between 10 to 30 points during 2022 with seat predictions possibly translating into anything from a 54 to a 404 seat majority. Even Blair only delivered a high water mark of 179 in 1997, dropping to 167 in 2001 and 66 in 2005. 

So whatever your political persuasion, the prospect of a new Government in the coming two years should be reason for optimism among political students, politicians and the public alike, because despite the recent economic, health and constitutional crisis’ the United Kingdom has suffered, it looks set to still deliver politically as one of the world’s leading multi-party democracies. 

Sam Cunningham is the CEO of PoliMonitor. Previously, political and communications adviser to Leader of the Liberal Democrats Tim Farron MP and Prime Minister Gordon Brown in Downing Street.