- The State Bank of Pakistan's Monetary Policy Committee has cut the policy rate by 250 basis points to 15 percent, citing improved economic indicators and a quicker decline in inflation. This is the largest reduction to date, totaling a 7.0 percent cut over four meetings since June 2024.
- The Pakistani government has mandated all sugar mills to install IP-based CCTV cameras by November 8, 2024, to monitor operations and ensure compliance, with footage accessible to the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR). This directive follows an October 28 meeting between the FBR and the Pakistan Sugar Mills Association.
- In October 2024, Pakistan’s cement exports grew by 51.29%, reaching 1.08 million tonnes and helping to offset stagnant domestic demand, which slightly declined by 0.49% to 3.276 million tonnes. Service exports grew by 5.77% to $1.91 billion in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, up from $1.80 billion in the same period last year.
- The Task Force on Energy has terminated or amended agreements with 13 independent power producers (IPPs), but talks with 18 remaining IPPs from 1994 and 2002 are stalled over data disputes.
- The coalition government rushed through 6 key bills in Parliament on Monday, extending the armed forces chiefs' tenures and increasing superior court judges, despite PTI-led opposition protests. The bills were approved in under 30 minutes without debate, surprising many with the tenure extensions.
- Chicago wheat futures rose 0.8%-$5.72-3/4/bushel on Monday, driven by a weaker US dollar and expectations of lower supply from Russia. Corn and soybean futures also gained, with soybeans up 0.9%-$10.03 and corn increasing 0.7%-$4.17-1/2, as all three contracts recovered from recent four-year lows amid supply concerns.
AGRI-UPDATES - COMMODITIES, POLICY & DEVELOPMENTS
- Pakistan Mandates CCTV in Sugar Mills: The Pakistani government has mandated all sugar mills to install IP-based CCTV cameras by November 8, 2024, to monitor operations and ensure compliance, with footage accessible to the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR). This directive follows an October 28 meeting between the FBR and the Pakistan Sugar Mills Association, where they agreed on electronic surveillance of mill operations. [The News]
- ECC Approves Rate Hike Amid Price Surge: The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) noted an 83% rise in pulses and chicken prices while approving a Rs 36 billion electricity rate increase. The meeting also ordered a third-party audit of Rs 2.7 billion for Islamabad's beautification and approved a sale agreement between Pakistan State Oil and Azerbaijan's Socar. [Dawn] [ET]
- Cement Exports Boost Pakistan's Dispatches: In October 2024, Pakistan’s cement exports grew by 51.29%, reaching 1.08 million tonnes and helping to offset stagnant domestic demand, which slightly declined by 0.49% to 3.276 million tonnes. Overall, total cement dispatches rose by 8.74% compared to October 2023, driven primarily by the export surge. [Dawn] [ET] [The News]
- Service Exports Rise 5.77% to $1.91 Billion: Service exports grew by 5.77% to $1.91 billion in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, up from $1.80 billion in the same period last year, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. September marked a positive turnaround with a 17.04% increase to $656.99 million, driven primarily by growth in the information technology sector. [Dawn]
- InfraZamin, Sundridge Foods Launch Sukuk: InfraZamin has partnered with Sundridge Foods Limited to launch a Rs 2 billion Agri-Infrastructure Sukuk, a Shariah-compliant financing instrument. This initiative aims to strengthen Pakistan’s agricultural sector and enhance food security, pending SECP approval and completion of transaction conditions by Sunridge Foods. [BR]
- Balochistan Launches Organic Agriculture Policy: The Balochistan government has approved the Balochistan Organic Agriculture Policy 2024 to promote sustainability and economic growth in agriculture. This policy aims to enhance biodiversity and food security, support 12,000 farmers on 95,000 acres, and has certified 67,067 acres of organic cotton in key districts. [BR]
- Research - Gul Ahmed Textile Mills: Gul Ahmed Textile Mills (GATM), a composite textile mill established in 1953, operates both in manufacturing and retail with over 40 stores across Pakistan. As of June 2024, Gul Ahmed Holdings (Private) Limited holds the largest share at 55.86%, with associated parties collectively holding 69%, while the remaining shares are distributed among individual investors, financial institutions, mutual funds, and insurance companies. [BR]
- Pakistan, Uzbekistan Expand Trade Agreement: Pakistan and Uzbekistan have expanded their Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) to include over 100 goods, up from 17, to boost bilateral trade. This decision was made during the 9th Intergovernmental Commission meeting in Tashkent, attended by both countries' commerce ministers and industry representatives. [ET]
ENERGY - WEATHER, WATER & POWER
- ADB Plans 16 New Projects for Pakistan: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has launched seven projects for Pakistan this year, with plans for 16 more next year to strengthen its collaboration with the country. This announcement was made by ADB’s new country director for Pakistan, Emma Fan, during her meeting with Finance Minister Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb. [BR]
- Energy Task Force Cuts IPP Agreements: The Task Force on Energy has terminated or amended agreements with 13 independent power producers (IPPs), but talks with 18 remaining IPPs from 1994 and 2002 are stalled over data disputes. Led by Minister for Power Sardar Awais Khan Leghari, the Task Force is working with regulatory experts to resolve the issues. [BR]
- PPL Secures 10-Year Lease for Sui Gas Field: Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) has been granted a 10-year development and production lease for the Sui gas field, effective from June 1, 2015, to May 31, 2025. The approval follows the expiration of the original mining lease in 2015, with PPL holding a 100% working interest and total liabilities related to the lease extension amounting to Rs 52.5 billion as of September 30, 2024. [The News]
- Power Division Urged to Tackle Mepco Theft: Stakeholders have advised the Power Division to address power theft and losses in the Multan Electric Power Company (Mepco). The establishment of a DISCO Support Unit (DSU) aims to enhance management and monitoring of theft, and a pilot project is currently assessing the situation in Mepco. [BR]
- Save Indus River Movement Launched: Opposition parties in Sindh have announced a "Save Indus River Movement" to oppose the proposed amendment to the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) Act, planning protests across the province. At a meeting led by PTI’s Haleem Adil Sheikh, leaders from various parties, including former President Dr. Arif Alvi, SUP’s Syed Zain Shah, and GDA’s Sardar Rahim, expressed support for the initiative. [Dawn]
- Lahore Faces Traffic & Smog Crisis: Lahore's traffic congestion is escalating despite Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz’s directives, with police focusing on revenue generation from motorcyclists. On Monday, the city briefly ranked as the world’s most polluted, leading the Punjab government to close primary schools until Nov 9 and impose a "green lockdown" in smog hot spots, officially declaring smog a calamity. [BR] [Dawn] [Dawn]
PAKISTAN - ECONOMICS, POLITICS & SECURITY
- SBP Cuts Policy Rate by 250 Basis Points: The State Bank of Pakistan's Monetary Policy Committee has cut the policy rate by 250 basis points to 15 percent, citing improved economic indicators and a quicker decline in inflation. This is the largest reduction to date, totaling a 7.0 percent cut over four meetings since June 2024. [BR] [Dawn] [ET]
- Pakistani Share Market Hits Record High: Anticipating a significant interest rate cut, the Pakistani share market saw robust buying, with the KSE index surpassing 92,000 for the first time. The KSE 100 index reached an intraday peak of 92,159.08 points, closing at a record 91,938.01, up 1,078.15 points (1.19%), fueled by investment commitments from Qatar and Saudi Arabia, strong petroleum sales, and stability in the rupee. [Dawn]
- Parliament Approves Key Bills Rapidly: The coalition government rushed through six key bills in Parliament on Monday, extending the armed forces chiefs' tenures and increasing superior court judges, despite PTI-led opposition protests. The bills were approved in under 30 minutes without debate, surprising many with the tenure extensions. The Judicial Commission of Pakistan (JCP), led by Chief Justice Yahya Afridi, is set to meet today at 2 pm to consider judge nominations for new constitutional benches, following last month’s 26th Amendment. The amendment, passed by parliament despite PTI opposition, mandates these benches for constitutional interpretation, and the JCP will also discuss setting up its secretariat. The government extended the army chief's tenure from three to five years by amending the Pakistan Army Act, eliminating the retirement age limit for four-star generals. Additionally, it passed legislation to increase the number of judges in the superior judiciary and amend the Practice and Procedure Act. [Dawn] [ET] [Dawn] [ET]
- Finance Minister Meets TPG Capital: Federal Finance Minister Senator Muhammad Aurangzeb met with TPG Capital's delegation to explore investment opportunities and strengthen economic ties in Pakistan. He highlighted improvements in economic indicators, including a decline in the current account deficit, and emphasized the government's commitment to boosting exports through diversification strategies. [BR]
- MSCI Set for November Index Review: The MSCI is set to announce its November 2024 Index review on November 6, 2024, with changes effective from November 26, 2024. Analysts expect a 10% increase in the threshold requirements for frontier market stocks, raising the free float minimum from $69 million to approximately $76 million and the total market cap from $138 million to around $152 million, based on previous reviews. [BR]
- SOE Governance Regulations Implemented: The Finance Division has implemented the State-Owned Enterprises (Audit Committee, Internal Control and Risk Management) Regulations, 2024, to improve governance in state-owned enterprises, effective immediately. This follows the State-Owned Enterprises (Governance and Operations) Act, 2023, along with the "Public Sector Obligations (PSO) Costing Guidelines." [BR]
- SBP Governor Expects Lower Debt Costs: SBP Governor Jameel Ahmad stated that the current monetary policy can manage fluctuations in oil prices and noted that reduced interest rates are expected to lower the government's debt servicing costs for FY25 to Rs 8.5 trillion, down from Rs 9.8 trillion. This reduction will result in savings of Rs 1.3 trillion, helping to control the fiscal deficit. [The News]
- ECC Approves Circular Debt Plan: The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) approved the Circular Debt Management Plan (CDMP) and Technical Supplementary Grants for the SCO Summit to address rising circular debt under IMF conditions. The government plans to increase electricity tariffs to generate Rs 36 billion this fiscal year, as circular debt has reached Rs 2.4 trillion, with a projected flow of Rs 83 billion for FY24. [ET] [The News]
INTERNATIONAL - MARKET, POLITICS, SECURITY & DEVELOPMENT
- Israeli Genocide: Israeli airstrikes in Gaza killed at least 12 Palestinians on Monday, amid fears of new attacks and forced evacuations aimed at creating buffer zones against Hamas militants. The UN Palestinian refugee agency, UNRWA, reported that Israel was reducing the number of aid trucks entering Gaza, worsening shortages of essential supplies, although Israel denied this and announced it was ending its relations with UNRWA. [BR] [Dawn] [ET]
- Harris & Trump Rally in Pennsylvania: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump made a final push in Pennsylvania on the last day of a volatile U.S. presidential race, with polls indicating a tight finish. At a rally in North Carolina, Trump, 78, dismissed concerns about his age and exhaustion, claiming he hasn't taken a day off in 62 days, while Harris expressed confidence as she headed to her first event in Allentown, Pennsylvania. [Dawn] [Dawn] [ET] [The News]
- Mount Lewotobi Erupts, 10 Dead: A volcano in eastern Indonesia, Mount Lewotobi Laki-Laki, erupted overnight, killing at least 10 people and prompting the highest alert level. The eruption, which occurred shortly before midnight, forced evacuations in surrounding villages as residents reported feeling the ground shake and witnessing fireballs and ash spewing from the volcano. [Dawn]
- Bangladesh Gets Low Rice Tender: Bangladesh's state grains buyer received a lowest tender offer of $477.00/tonne CIF liner out for 50,000 metric tons of rice sourced from India. While the offers are still under consideration and no purchase has been finalized, the lowest bid is believed to have come from Pattabhi Agro Foods. [BR]
- UN Advocates Carbon Offsets: The United Nations has suggested that the world's poorest nations could greatly benefit from carbon offset projects, which would support their development and aid global climate action. A UNCTAD report highlighted how carbon markets can attract capital to developing countries and enhance sustainable development through emissions offsetting initiatives. [BR]
- Wheat Futures Rise on Supply Concerns: Chicago wheat futures rose 0.8%-$5.72-3/4/bushel on Monday, driven by a weaker US dollar and expectations of lower supply from Russia. Corn and soybean futures also gained, with soybeans up 0.9%-$10.03 and corn increasing 0.7%-$4.17-1/2, as all three contracts recovered from recent four-year lows amid supply concerns. [BR]
- Oil Prices Rise Nearly 3%: Oil prices rose nearly 3% on Monday after OPEC+ decided to delay plans to increase output by a month, with Brent futures up $2.05-$75.15 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increasing by $2.09-$71.56. The market is also anticipating a critical week as Americans prepare to elect a new president. [Dawn]
- JS Bank & BankIslami Partner for Remittances: JS Bank and BankIslami have partnered to enhance home remittance services in Pakistan by combining their retail networks. This alliance will enable JS Bank to use BankIslami’s 780 branches for secure and convenient remittance payouts, improving financial accessibility for beneficiaries receiving funds from overseas. [The News]
- Punjab Reverses PIA Acquisition Decision: The Punjab government reversed its decision to acquire Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), while KP Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur plans to outbid the Blue World City consortium's offer of Rs 10 billion. The privatization of PIA has stalled, as the bid fell Rs 75 billion short of the government's minimum expectation of Rs 85.03 billion. [Dawn]
- October Remittances Exceed $3 Billion: Remittances in October exceeded $3 billion, and the State Bank of Pakistan expects $500 million from the Asian Development Bank this week, boosting foreign inflows. FY25 remittances are up 39%, with a government goal of increasing SBP foreign exchange reserves to $13 billion by fiscal year-end. [Dawn]
- Opinion: Breathe! - “What is strange about this year’s smog invasion is that it has occurred when October has proved warmer than ever in living memory. The average maximum and minimum temperature throughout the month has remained 32 degrees and 27 degrees respectively. This suggests that our previous assumption that cold weather is one of the culprits in engendering smog may not be true. Lahore, Faisalabad, Multan, Kasur, Islamabad and a host of Punjab’s other cities have been afflicted to a greater or lesser extent by the dreaded phenomenon.” - By Rashed Rahman [BR]
