The Real Economy

A hot U.S. economy will likely cool noticeably in 2019 as the combination of receding fiscal stimulus, higher interest rates and a rising annual operating deficit begin to increase the cost of doing business. At the same time, the mounting urban-rural divide is likely to be exacerbated as cities closely linked to the new economy (with jobs and skills related to technology, life sciences, finance and trade) see growth, productivity and wages expand at a faster pace than rural areas that remain linked to the traditional economy of manufacturing and agriculture. 

While many sectors of the economy will experience hot growth in 2019, those that lag behind will have very different policy demands and expectations.