The real issues of American politics
Soren Friis Larsen
Head of US Office │ Executive Advice & Training │ Crisis Management │ Strategic Comms │ Leadership │ MSc, MBA
Does hearing about the US presidential election make you tired? For many, I think it does. With primary elections only days away, it is hard to open cable news without a droning buzz of political news. Did you hear what candidate X, Y or Z said yesterday? Who has made a small bump in the polls? How is the other campaign going to respond? Sadly, most of this coverage is rather inconsequential.
As the political nerd I cannot deny I am, I try to follow along – mostly through written sources, because life is just too short for television news these days – but I deeply miss more coverage of what really matters. Of the issues and how the US can address its challenges – but also of the more structural aspects of American politics.
If we dive in a bit deeper and look at what underpins the oldest democracy in world, the story becomes more interesting – and understanding these fundamentals will also make it easier to navigate through the noise and daily distractions. I think this is certainly true for business leaders trying to understand how US politics shape their commercial outlook. In many ways, I like to compare this to how we would think of the economy; When it comes to the market, rather than just study day-to-day movements, we try to understand the fundamentals. Our lens on politics should be similarly disciplined.
Understanding the fundamentals of US politics
In this article, I would like to examine six more basic aspects of the American political system and how they impact elections. I might explore a similar discussion of how these and other fundamentals impact how America governs, but for now I am going to focus on how they play out for the voting process.
1: More people vote
What we see: Increase in voter turnout and a growing population mean a growing number of Americans cast their vote, especially in presidential elections. In the 2020 contest between Biden and Trump, almost 160 million or nearly 67% of eligible Americans voted.
The eligible immigrant voting population has about doubled in the past two decades and today, naturalized citizens make up about 1-in-10 of all eligible voters.
Why it matters: In the US two-party system, results are often decided by turnout – of who and what can mobilize voters.
Turnout rates vary across demographics like race, age, and gender – and understanding how new voters lean is important to predicting future elections.
How easy it is to vote is often a political battleground.
Some of the questions it raises:
2: Fewer votes matter
What we see: Ironically, fewer of the votes cast can really swing the presidential election. The two parties increasingly only contest battleground states and their number has gone way down from previous elections.
With Florida increasingly a safe, Republican state, we are now down to perhaps six states that will decide the outcome for 2024: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia.
Why it matters: National polling is increasingly irrelevant to the composition of the electoral college and thus the outcome of the election.
The relative importance of the few remaining swing states is higher.
Some of the questions it raises:
3: Politicians pick their voters
What we see: In a democracy it should be the other way around, but so-called gerrymandering, i.e. politically motivated redistricting, allow the dominant party to try to manipulate the election map in a way that maximizes their winning chances.
Courts try to fight this, but it remains an issue in many states according to Princeton University and many others.
Why it matters: Less important for presidential elections, but still has an indirect impact because it shapes the strength of the parties locally.
Gerrymandering reduces the fairness of elections, and it limits healthy competition.
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Some of the questions it raises:
4: Money talks
What we see: There is more and more money in American politics – it is more concentrated, and campaigns regularly set new spending records.
Through special vehicles like Super PACs, few mega donors can contribute very large sums that buy them considerable influence on candidates. Other campaigns rely on micro donations from many donors.
Why it matters: Political fundraising is a discipline in its own right and takes up a lot of bandwidth.
Campaign finance rules are highly complex, there is not always transparency, and the issue leaves many voters alienated.
Some of the questions it raises:
5: Three is a crowd
What we see: The two-party system is cemented by the election system (first-past-the-post) and it is very hard for independents or third-party candidates to win.
In contrast, more and more voters register as “independents”, and the two existing parties have significant internal factions that make governing complicated.
Why it matters: On the one hand, the two-party system gives party leadership enormous gatekeeping power over candidates. On the other hand, the primary election system keeps the door open for (more populist) non-establishment candidates – like Trump for example.
Some of the questions it raises:
6: Fewer debates, less confidence in the media
What we see: The US is showing signs of an eroding democratic conversation. Attack ads replace policy discussion and candidates in general have fewer debates with each other. Trust in journalism is worryingly low and voters increasingly rely on news from their social feeds.
Why it matters: This leads to increase in voter polarization and general distrust in the political system. There is a risk of social media echo chambers and the rising importance of fake news.
Some of the questions it raises: