Red book or blue book - close personal relationships will serve us well, whichever leader triumphs
As Australia, like every other country, braces for the US election result, it’s in our interests to position ourselves to maximise either of the options that await us.
That could be a Trump emboldened by his victory, and who will remember his friends a lot more in his second term, or a Biden who attempts to steer the course of American exceptionalism back to its democratic grounding.
Australia’s close relationship with the US — our strong economic and defence ties and our disproportionately large influence in regional and global institutions — means we have a particular interest and stake in how the US sets itself up post the election.
Our ambassador to the US, Arthur Sinodinos, will have been working with the departments of Prime Minister and Cabinet and Foreign Affairs and Trade on a “red book’’ and a “blue book,’’ Each book should outline a road map for how Australian leaders and diplomats should approach a Republican or Democratic presidential win, and highlight the key policy issues that are at stake for the Australia-US relationship or other regional and multilateral forums that we care about, in either presidential scenario.
The government will be bracing to quickly prosecute a range of matters as policy positions are worked on after Thursday and before the inauguration.
The Australia-US refugee resettlement arrangement, struck in 2016 by Malcolm Turnbull and Barack Obama, was the first such issue we had to face, when Donald Trump threatened to disband the agreement before there was an appointed secretary of state.
Strong personal relationships and an alignment of interests in the region will hold us in good stead as we navigate this. Many of Joe Biden’s and Hillary Clinton’s former staff are very good friends of Australia, and there is an extraordinary level of close personal relationships that will help Australia cut through the cumbersome policymaking process that occurs after the presidential inauguration.
These close Australia-US personal relationships are also true of Trump’s camp, although they will be further put to the test depending on whether the US secretaries of state and defence and their key personnel remain.
Our relationship with Trump and his advisers is beholden to balancing the opportunity to offer sound and solid advice (as Australia is well known for in American circles), and the opportunity to maximise the President’s victory, our close relationship and how we can leverage that.
Australia and the US’s unwavering common interest is in seeing a strong, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific region. We will do a lot to ensure the US pre-eminent leadership of the region is not lost.
In some instances, we have been keeping the seat warm for the US in forums in our region, because of the recent dearth of US representation.
Should there be a Biden presidency, his advisers will want to put quickly into motion a “Save America” strategy, which will involve reinstating America’s democratic standing, diplomatic power and heft. Many of the advisers in the tent right now have grand visions of bolstering US resourcing, reinjecting the US into the Indo-Pacific region. Biden’s commitment to rebuilding the State Department in his foreign policy election pledge is a nod to this.
At the very heart of our operation in the Indo-Pacific is the tense subject of how to manage China’s rise. Frances Adamson, the head of DFAT and Australia’s former ambassador to China, told a Senate estimates hearing last week that China had become the “challenge of the age.” This is no small statement from a senior career diplomat — it heralds how significant and how disillusioned the practitioners of diplomacy are.
Whatever the outcome is, there will be a flurry by all countries to ensure they are positioned with the president to best influence US policies.
Australia is in a good position, but it will require a very tight and well co-ordinated approach after Wednesday to ensure that we act fast enough while staying true to our interests.
Georgie Skipper was the principal adviser on the US to the Foreign Minister from 2013-18
First published in The Australian on 5 November 2020
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4yGreat to see this Georgie. Sadly as Colbert tweeted "we're waiting to find out if the winner of the election is going to win the election." Irrespective of the months of disruption ahead that is inevitable, the Australian government needs to own its place in influencing world affairs and Australian corporates need to be accountable for creating and delivering value to the Australian people and execute well on daring vision. The best leaders have a chance to step in and up and to shine.
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4yGood summary Georgie!