Reframe the Frame of Uncertainty

Summary from the recent book by Nathan Furr and Susannah Harmon Furr on the possibilities and tools to see the upside of uncertainty. 

“Nothing is impossible, the word itself says ‘I’m possible! – Audrey Hepburn”. 

But the downsides of uncertainty can be so intense that they often disguise or obstruct our view of possibilities. 

Recall for a moment any big change you’ve experienced in your life, perhaps a new work project, taking a career leap, partnering with a career coach, moving to a different geography, or changing your relationship status. What made it hard? What held you back? What tempted you not to make the change? The answer is uncertainty.

Although, everything that we care about today came after a period of uncertainty and, even now, the unknown at hand may hold a variety of insights, growth and possibilities. We are all wired to fear the downsides of uncertainty and the same time, expected to cross through it and make leaps, creation, innovation and success in life. The only way to get to the possibilities you dream of is to navigate the treacherous realm of the unknown.

Real-life stories of Indra Nooyi, a young trainee raising her hand to tackle the company's thorniest problem, and Jeff Bezos, a young engineer who moved from banking to creating a startup in a rented garage do not happen without massive uncertainty. THEY UNLOCKED SOMETHING BEYOND RESILIENCE, THE UPSIDE OF UNCERTAINTY.

Uncertainty is broader than risk, even though it is often used interchangeably. It is stepping into uncharted territory without minimizing the downsides- frustration and grief, especially when the unexpected blindsides us. It is impossible to ignore or sidestep the loss and tragedy that some uncertainties bring, nor is it about indulging in pursuits that might hurt ourselves and others. However, even in despair, new possibilities can emerge if we learn to navigate the unknown. 

According to the World Uncertainty Index, created by economists at Stanford and the International Monetary Fund to capture economic and policy uncertainty, uncertainty has been rising steadily over recent decades. “There is ambiguity and paradox everywhere,” observed Jostein Solheim, former CEO at Ben and Jerry’s.

It is hard to have linear routes forward in a world where 65% of elementary-school-age children may work in jobs that don't even exist yet. Technology has magnified the uncertainty and the increasing pace of change. And while students learn Science and Maths in school, they do not know how to prepare to deal with uncertainty. Hence, for those who hope to have a linear route forward, life and career will get harder and harder. The Covid pandemic has shown this in real-time when executives at the top felt uncertainty more than ever. 

As one CTO expressed, “You find uncertainty on so many levels … in industry, boardroom, management, execution…. I thought as my career progressed I would feel more certain, but as your career progresses, uncertainty just increases."

Uncertainty is here to stay. Learning to face the unknown well is critical to our ability to survive and thrive. As, CEO Sam Yagan stated, "the single biggest predictor of executive success is how you deal with ambiguity.” Likewise, McKinsey & Company argues that “what leaders need during a crisis is not a predefined response plan but behaviours and mindsets that will prevent them from overreacting to yesterday’s developments and help them to look ahead.”

But the big Question is, how to develop this can-do approach to uncertainty?

First, what does it mean to develop an uncertainty capability - 

It is the skill to navigate unknowns both planned (such as starting a new venture or leaving a job) and unplanned (such as losing a job, experiencing a health crisis, or going through a relationship breakdown). To walk through uncertainty with grace, develop a healthy relationship with uncertainty, and increase the possibility quotient or the likelihood to see and seize new opportunities. 

Everyone comes with a different capacity to manage uncertainty. While neuroscience highlights every skill is shaped by the environment, learning and gynes, a significant part of this uncertainty ability appear to be learnable. Research in ambiguity tolerance, uncertainty avoidance, and resilience underscores that we can learn to face uncertainty well. Also, academic literature in the fields of strategy, organizational behaviour, and psychology shows other groups like artists, creatives, paramedics and change makers have developed remarkable uncertainty ability among others. These include a decision to live abroad, getting back into the workforce after a break, experience as a spiritual nomad, and couples or parents unlearning toxic patterns in favour of more authentic partnerships with children and among each other.

Nathan and Susanne highlight four groups of tools that increase uncertainty ability, organized around an uncertainty first-aid cross to remind you that there is help available for facing the unknown. They also chose symbols that inspire and recall the main thrust for each set of tools. 

Reframe tools enable and strengthen a perspective shift, motivating you to look creatively for all possibilities and believe in an upside that is not seen yet. he compass symbol highlights how Reframe tools point to the steady “true north” upside of uncertainty when in the fog;

Prime tools prepare you by encouraging projects that matter to you, taking into account your uncertain landscape to enable satisfying outcomes when it’s time to act. The backpack symbol reminds us that Prime tools impact the quality of the uncertain journey and where you end up;

Do tools describe how to thoughtfully unlock the rewarding possibilities hidden in the uncertainties you face to promote a future you want to live in. The sailboat symbolizes how Do tools are about taking advantage of when the wind blows to move forward with boldness, cleverness, and agility but also recognizing how to adjust course when needed; and 

Sustain tools give comfort and remind you why and how to keep going or how to pivot when things don’t go as planned. The emblem of the Paris symbol—a boat on the water, often paired with the motto “tossed but not sinking”—assures that Sustain tools will calm your fears, bolster your efforts, and reveal the possibilities. 

Thus, the north-south “thinking” axis is akin to the poles by which we navigate the world, and the east-west “doing” axis recalls the action required to travel across time zones.

Applying the uncertainty tools is not meant to be a linear process, as they inform each other and even overlap. Instead, they are supposed to be used according to what resonates for you in a given moment. The authors have tried to arrange the tools for maximum effect, which resulted in the Sustain tools grouped according to three critical themes—emotional hygiene, reality check, and magic—to make them easier to remember in times of trouble.

When you do, you will also find your transilience.

Each of these tools is further detailed and backed with research and neuroscience to understand the depth and impact we have while navigating through uncertainty.

The authors conclude with Uncertainty, Courage, and Magic by quoting, —Charlotte Brontë

“I remembered that the real world was wide and that a varied field of hopes and fears, of sensations and excitements, awaited those who had the courage to go forth into its expanse, to seek real knowledge of life amidst its perils.”

Although reality brings challenges, discomfort, and heartache, it is the only place where innovation, solution, and evolution happen. Taleb’s empowering idea—that we can strive to be more “anti-fragile”—definitely shaped our thoughts about the upside of uncertainty. But his survival-of-the-fittest, stay-in-the-ring-the-longest, the resilience-oriented view doesn’t thrill us like the notion of transilience does.

According to the authors, transilience is something beyond resilience. Resilience is being able to withstand shocks and recover. But transilience is about transformation, leaping from one state to another. It is the moment when hardened steel turns to molten metal, the ordinary stone becomes a smooth sculpture, and terrifying uncertainty becomes insight, wisdom, and opportunity. The upside of uncertainty is just as real as the downsides, but like an underdog, it just needs a fair chance to show what it can do. The upside at first can feel flimsy and tenuous: a possibility? hope? transformation? Really? The downsides feel more real because they trigger fundamental warning alarms: danger, scarcity, shame, and so forth. 

For all of us, regardless of career or circumstance, uncertainty is arguably the portal to every growth, change, and courageous act we will ever undertake. It attends every invitation to cultivate a more meaningful, inspired, and authentic life. Uncertainty will bring peril that can’t be easily swept away but to avoid it, give up too soon- or mistakenly decide to do nothing, will find the downside of uncertainty and limit us to live a life of our fullest potential.