Regional Pulse: 6 September 2022
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Key developments
ARGENTINA
BRAZIL
CHILE
COLOMBIA
ECUADOR
MEXICO
PERU
ARGENTINA
VP survives assassination attempt
On 1 September 2022, Vice-President Cristina Kirchner survived an assassination attempt while greeting supporters outside her home in Buenos Aires. A 35-year-old man named Fernando André Sabag Montiel was arrested by police after his handgun failed to fire while aiming point-blank range at the VP’s head. Kirchner was unharmed, and an investigation by federal police is now underway.
Tax relief for car manufacturers
On 31 August 2022, the Economy Ministry announced automakers based in the country will no longer face export duties from 2023 if they increase production. The government hopes the incentive will encourage vehicle exports and help fill rapidly dwindling Central Bank coffers.
Province of Mendoza allows crypto for tax payment
On 29 August 2022, Mendoza became the first province to allow tax payments in cryptocurrency. The provincial government hopes cryptocurrencies will modernize and facilitate the tax paying process. High inflation and a generalized distrust in the economy has led many Argentines to look for financial stability in cryptocurrencies.
BRAZIL
GDP growth outperforms Central Bank expectations
On 1 September 2022, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) announced GDP had risen 1.2% year-on-year in the second trimester of 2022. The result surpassed the expectations of the Central Bank, which had predicted an increase in the GDP of 0.57% for the same period.
Lula’s lead slips after strong Tebet debate performance
On 1 September 2022, Datafolha released its latest poll for the October presidential elections showing former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva still leading the race at 45%, but down from 47%. He is followed by President Jair Bolsonaro whose numbers are stable at 32%. Centrist MDB candidate and senator Simone Tebet appears to have benefited from Lula’s loss. Her numbers rose from 2% in mid-August to 5% in early September, following a strong performance in the first presidential debate on 29 August. Most analysts monitored by Southern Pulse now believe Lula’s chances of winning outright in the first round are low.
Unemployment falls
On 31 August 2022, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) reported that formal unemployment had fallen to 9.1% in the second trimester of 2022, down from 13.7% at the same time last year. That is the lowest unemployment rate since December 2015. However, informal employment, where workers do not have a formal labor contract, remains high at 39.8%.
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New oil and gas concessions announced
On 26 August 2022, The National Petroleum Agency (ANP) authorized the concession of another 218 offshore petroleum drilling blocks to private investors in all five of the country’s equatorial offshore basins, following the discovery of new oil fields in the region. The announcement brings the number of blocks set for auction to an unprecedented 289. Auctions will occur as soon as environmental impact studies are approved by the Ministry of the Environment.
CHILE
Voters reject draft constitution
On 4 September 2022, voters rejected a new draft constitution by 61.86% to 38.14%, with a high turnout of 83.98%. The referendum took place after Chileans voted to draft a new constitution in October 2020 following country-wide protests. Polls had consistently shown the decidedly left-wing text would be rejected, exacerbated by a slow start to drafting and disinformation. The government will propose the election of a new Constitutional Convention that can work to improve the rejected draft.
President’s brother discharged from hospital after violent beating
On 2 September 2022, Sebastián Boric, brother of President Gabriel Boric, was released from the hospital a day after being beaten by four students at the University of Chile where he works. Boric suffered two fractures and will not press charges against the students. It is unclear why the attack took place, but local media outlet 24horas said local sourcing reported that Sebastián Boric had intervened in an attempted looting.
Extremist Mapuche group claims responsibility for arson attack
On 30 August 2022, the seperatist Resistencia Mapuche Lavkenche group claimed responsibility for torching a historic building in the southern Biobío region. Three people were seriously injured in the attack, which was meant to show support for arrested Mapuche activists currently on a hunger strike. On the same day, Mapuche activists blockaded a highway in the neighboring La Araucanía region to show support for Mapuche prisoners and Héctor Llaitul, the recently arrested leader of the seperatist Coordinadora Arauco-Malleco (CAM) group.
COLOMBIA
Suspected FARC dissident attack leaves seven police dead
On 2 Septemeber 2022, seven police officers were ambushed and murdered in San Luís, Huila, a department in southern Colombia. The attack, which involved high caliber weapons and explosives, was probably perpetuated by FARC dissidents vying for control of the area.
Petro submits “total peace” bill to Congress
On 31 August 2022, the Petro administration submitted a bill to Congress that calls for talks with armed groups while creating peace commissioners for the territories worst affected by violence. It also proposes social, educational, and environmentally focused alternatives to mandatory military service across the country. The policy, dubbed “total peace,” establishes peace as a government priority.
Ten massacres reported in first month of Petro presidency
On 29 August 2022, Indepaz, a human rights NGO, reported 10 massacres had taken place in the first month of the Petro presidency, with three taking place over the past weekend, claiming 10 victims in total. The last three massacres occurred in Barranquilla, Nariño, and Catatumbo. There have been a total of 71 massacres throughout the year, already surpassing the 68 massacres for the same period last year. Indepaz considers the murder of three or more defenseless civilians to constitute a massacare.
ECUADOR
Narco gangs expand their grip on ports
On 1 September 2022, the National Police said narco gangs had expanded operations in the country's ports to an unprecedented level. In August, agents apprehended over 10 metric tonnes in drugs at port facilities. Police intelligence officials said organized gangs were exporting drugs from national ports to 25 countries including the US and western Europe.
Negotiations with protestors stall
On 1 September 2022, the president of the powerful indigenous confederation CONAIE, Leonidas Iza, expressed concerns over a lack of progress in negotiations with the government, following a deal reached in late June to end weeks of civil unrest. Negotiations were set to last 90 days. Following Iza’s remarks the UN representative for the talks, Francisco Tzay, urged both parties to make these negotiations a permanent forum.
Chile’s ENAP wins O&G logistics concession
On 1 September 2022, Chilean state-run oil company ENAP won a government concession to transport oil from Ecuador’s Amazon region to international markets starting in November 2022. The auction’s organizer, Petroecuador, had invited 40 companies to participate in the bidding process. ENAP saw off competition from Petrochina and Trafigura, all of which presented their bids on 30 August.
MEXICO
Opposition sues over National Guard incorporation into Defense Ministry
On 2 September 2022, the Movimiento Ciudadano party filed a constitutional lawsuit (amparo) against the government's proposal to bring the National Guard into the Secretary of Defense (SEDENA) via a legislative fast-track that does not require parliamentary discussion. The National Guard is currently under the administration of the Civilian Protection and Security Secretary and resembles a special federal police force, but the government says it must be incorporated into SEDENA to place it on even footing with the country’s well armed criminal organizations. Several international and national NGOs have also criticized the bill’s constitutionality and say the change will favor a militarized approach to security threats. The proposal has passed the lower chamber and now goes to the Senate.
Record remittances reported in July
On 1 September 2022, the Mexican Bank reported a record value for monthly remittances of almost USD5.3 million in July, up 16.5% from the same time last year. A strong labor market in the US is the main reason for increased remittances which have been valued at over USD5 million per month, for the past three months.
PERU
Castillo’s sister-in-law jailed over corruption charges
On 28 August 2022, President Pedro Castillo’s sister-in-law Yennifer Paredes was arrested on corruption and money laundering charges and placed in preventative detention for 30 months. Paredes allegedly benefited from irregular financing linked to concessions awarded by the Housing Ministry, but has also been detained as part of a wider investigation into corrupt practices and nepotism reportedly overseen by President Pedro Castillo.