Rejection of the law of the jungle

The world is changing, we are changing

No matter what times politicians, generals, businessmen and ordinary citizens made plans for the future, they always did it with a possible war in mind. From the Stone Age to the age of steam engines, from the Arctic to the Sahara, every single person knew that neighbours could invade their territory at any moment, destroy the army, exterminate the people and seize the land. And the main engine of humanity was the desire for evolution. Thanks to it, we came to the agrarian revolution. With the help of it, we reached the industrial, and later — to the scientific-information revolution. Now we are on the threshold of the fourth revolutionary leap: the technological singularity, the era of aerospace research.

But why, when countries should unite and make this quantum leap for all mankind, is our attention focused on the events that shocked everyone? When spaceships have to surf the expanses, we read the news with horror, people die every day and economies are destroyed.

All this is the result of the conflict that began on February 24, 2022. The day when the world was definitely divided into "before and after".

3 main questions

Will there be a nuclear war?

The answer is simple: if there will be one, it won't matter where  and how far you will go. Forget it and enjoy: after all, we have seats in the first row.

On the other hand, some scientists are seriously developing economic theories and principles of population management in the post-nuclear world.

Will sanctions close Russia and its market from the rest of the world?

My answer is simple - no. No one wants to lose a market of 260 million consumers. When Iran was closed with sanctions, entrepreneurs found workarounds. As there is life after sanctions in Iran, so there will be in Russia.

In my opinion, the main task of these sanctions is an energetic  revolution. Decarbonization or carbon-free energy. In 2014, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) published a report that laid the foundation for the 2015 Paris Conference. The conference gave an impetus to change. The global strategy of the powers was to reduce the dependence of the economy on gas, oil, and coal. And the search for renewable energy sources is a priority.

Now pension funds and investors are demanding explanations from energy companies on how they will develop their strategy and profitability, taking into account the 2015 Paris Agreement.

For example, in the annual letter to the presidents of companies for 2020, Larry Fink — the head of the largest investment company BlackRock — said:

"Climate change has become a determining factor for the long-term prospects of companies… In the near future — sooner than most think — there will be a significant redistribution of capital"

According to Larry Fink, BlackRock will put environmental friendliness and sustainable development at the heart of its approach to investment and will require companies to disclose climate-related risks. BlackRock manages $10 trillion in assets, so they are at least listened to.

As an example of the redistribution of capital — the growth of income on "green bonds". They provide financing for infrastructure related to the use of renewable energy sources. In 2015, the value of "green bonds" was equal to $50 billion, and in 2019 it increased 5.1 times — $257 billion.

In addition, venture capital funds have increased investments in renewable energy startups by 14 times.

Sanctions are pushing the world community to accelerate the rejection of traditional energy carriers and switch to renewable energy faster — to become independent in front of supplier countries.

What will be the price now?

Brains. This is the most valuable product of the past, our, and, I am sure, the next century. They are at the peak of their demand. It is for them, in my opinion, that the most fierce struggle is going on. Because without them, they will not find any new ingenious solutions for renewable energy, nor other discoveries.

It takes 20-30 years to become a qualified scientist. The Soviet Union was famous for its scientists. The Russian Federation also managed to grow serious researchers, young entrepreneurs with a large reserve of initial capital, who were ready to invest in the development of scientific projects, and therefore in science.

Just as Ukraine managed to raise globally thinking, freedom-loving sons and daughters.

But because of all these events, 4.2 million people left Ukraine, and over 2 million left Russia. Most of them, of course, go to nearby states: Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Poland, Moldova, Romania, Serbia and others.

Ones left their country forcibly, others left it consciously. Among these people are dozens of future Elon Musk and Steve Jobs. I am sure that some of them will not return to their homeland. And wherever they stay, their gaze will be directed to where science and entrepreneurship develop together.

To understand the scale of the tragedy, according to Harvard Business Review research, the departure of only 10% of scientists from a project to create new laboratory or experimental research will slow down development for 3 years.

3 years for the state within the framework of the speed of technology development, and the current speed of progress — is it a lot or a little?

In my opinion, this is disastrously much.

Progress is moving by leaps and bounds:

1. Elon Musk, hiding behind space tourism and the Internet of a new generation, actually reduces the price per kilogram of cargo transported into space. As a result, this will make space exploration economically feasible, and consequently profitable for many industries.
2. The company Momentus is developing a space tractor. Its task is to transport cargo between orbits, and SpaceX will take it into space.
3. Various enterprises developing blockchain technologies and metaverses, which will surpass the cryptocurrency itself in terms of turnover, are developing technology to bring the banking system into a space jurisdiction that does not even exist yet, which means it is not regulated in any way.

Against the background of such events, a 3—year lag is a huge damage not only for the whole country, but also for the whole world.

It is unlikely that our path will be easy. Emerging shocks lead us to a difficult, thorny path. Could anyone have foreseen the shale revolution? Did anyone expect the financial crisis of 2008? The Arab Spring, the 2008 war in Georgia,

the accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in 2011. Recently, the coronavirus changed everything in our lives: the format of work, the economic model, changed all the rules by which the world lived. And now it's 24.02.2022.

We can only guess how and what will happen, but even then it is not a fact that it will be possible to come to an agreement, draw up an exact route and reduce the risks. Take the same problem of global warming, climate change. We are already feeling the consequences, scientists have been shouting about it for decades, but there is still no real action. And when the tension grows, the order changes and nations collide.