This is the Retail Apocalypse

I've had people that work in the brick-and-mortar retail sector try to tell me that the retail apocalypse of the last few years was a myth. What we are seeing today in retail is nearly as dire as what we see in the hospitality, travel, entertainment or energy sectors.

If digital transformation has shifted retail online, the small business retail death we will see in 2020 and 2021 is like nothing else in living memory. People don't want to talk about the business reality during a pandemic for people on the streets. Who can blame gym owners for making the argument that their business is good for our mental health during such a crisis?

'A scary number' of retail companies are facing bankruptcy amid the coronavirus pandemic and Malls are following suit. Two mall owners — CBL and Pennsylvania Real Estate Investment Trust — have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Malls have been pressured by the coronavirus pandemic, with their tenants not paying rent, and dozens of retailers and restaurants filing for bankruptcy protection.

With the pandemic not under control, the retail sector must brace for the retail apocalypse. This is it, this is as bad as it gets. The retail sector we should talk about, and not about economic recoveries, it's premature to talk like that.

At least 35 retailers and restaurant companies have filed for bankruptcy or liquidation in 2020. Why don't we tell their stories, or hear about the stories of small businesses that didn't make it? Why are we ashamed for telling the truth during during a crisis?

CBL operates 107 properties, totaling 66.7 million square feet across 26 states, including outlet centers. The mall owner has struggled during the pandemic with its tenants not paying rent or pushing payments back. Some of them, like the department store chain J.C. Penney, have also filed for bankruptcy protection this year. For Malls it's not just a domino effect, foot traffic has been down for years. Retail margins are thin to begin with, they aren't positioned to handle a shock, multiple lockdowns, nothing like that.

We should pay tribute to those iconic retailers who will never be the same in 2020, and who are likely to follow suit in 2021. You know their names: (maybe you heard they were no longer the same).

• Ascena Retail (Lane Bryant, Ann Taylor)
• Brooks Brothers
• Century 21 Stores
• J.C. Penney
• GNC
• J. Crew
• Lord & Taylor
• Neiman Marcus
• Pier 1
• Stein Mart

The list is much longer. Instead of denying the shift, we should try to understand it. Instead of denying that this is a retail apocalypse, we should understand the businesses that will rise from the ashes. How it fuels Shopify, Lightspeed, Amazon and the new breed of online native retailer.

Simon’s strategy during the pandemic has pivoted to buying retailers out of bankruptcy, in part to keep those retailers’ stores in Simon malls open. It acquired the denim maker Lucky Brand and the men’s suit maker Brooks Brothers out of bankruptcy, with the help of apparel-licensing firm Authentic Brands Group. The American Mall is a relic and is now a tribute to experiential retail.

Empty retail space and an exodus from cities is like a new kind of economic crisis. Let's tell the truth of how the hospitality, retail and energy bubbles breaking impacts the future of jobs. Commercial real estate is in trouble, and turbulence in the $15 trillion market is threatening to bleed over into the broader financial system just as the U.S. struggles to emerge from a recession.

Let's be honest about the world we live in and what repeated shutdowns does to a sector. We aren't just avoiding gyms, cruise ships and move theatres. Shopping centers and malls rank as the most-avoided public places among consumers, according to a survey of 419 people by Coresight Research. The week of Oct. 27, 55.4% of those polled said they were avoiding malls. What is that doing to retail?

These are fallen retail soldiers of America. They deserve some respect, not the denial we see or the lack of news. The retail apocalypse is real, just as real as the shift in the energy sector. How many small business retailers have gone bankrupt, I don't think anybody even knows yet and more will follow in 2021. Especially the restaurant sector will be quite different. Among American gym chains, I only really see Planet Fitness surviving. New monopolies will form due to the natural selection during this period.

The longer the pandemic paralyzes hotels, retailers and office buildings, the more difficult it is for property owners to meet their mortgage payments — raising the specter of widespread downgrades, defaults and eventual foreclosures. We have to respect the debt crisis that's coming for many sectors in America. A Retail Apocalypse is just one of the symptoms of the times. We need to understand how the different sectors of our economy are connected.

The Retail Apocalypse is not a myth, it will be forever 2021 for many of us. Let's not just tell the good stories, but be mindful and respectful of what is happening to our industries, our stores and to our middle class economy.