Reviewing my 2024 Predictions

Its prediction season again. Before I hand out my 2025 predictions its best to review what happened from last years. I actually had Chat GPT mark my homework and it gave me a score of 9 hits, 5 partial hits and 4 complete misses. I will take that, getting Googles current plan on removing cookies by human choice sometime next year was impossible to call precisely.

I got a lot right. A large amount of A.I adoption and focus was spot on. First party data being the most important area for advertisers to control and with far more effort made by advertisers to look after it (with or without agencies). Great years for retail media and CTV (fairly obvious though they were).

Most of what I got wrong was a case of not yet I think (saying synthetic data would be highly used was poorly worded, though it has emerged as an important concept just its still niche). My call that AR/VR was going to have a resurgence has not come to pass, Apple Vision or no.

You can see the break down of chat GPTS scoring below and the original article is in the comments.

1. AI Adoption in Marketing

Algorithmic AI: Tools like Google Performance Max and Meta Advantage+ advanced significantly, enhancing optimization capabilities. However, concerns about transparency and effectiveness persisted among marketers. HIT

Generative AI – Text and Creative: The surge in AI-driven content creation was notable, with AI-human collaboration proving essential to avoid subpar outputs. HIT

Generative AI – Images and Video: AI-powered dynamic creative optimization improved efficiency. However, legal and copyright concerns limited fully autonomous creative development. HIT

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2. Identity and Privacy

Third-Party Cookie Phase-Out: Google delayed the deprecation of third-party cookies to Q1 2025, aligning with your prediction. However, the delay indicates a slower transition than anticipated. PARTIAL HIT

First-Party Data Strategies: Companies, notably Google and Meta, prioritized first-party data strategies, integrating them into platforms like Connected TV (CTV). This focus led to significant advancements in personalized advertising. HIT

Clean Rooms and Data Collaboration: Adoption of data clean rooms increased, especially among large advertisers, but complexity limited broader implementation. PARTIAL HIT

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3. Retail Media

Revenue Growth: Retail media networks experienced rapid growth, particularly among large retailers with robust data capabilities. HIT

Operational Complexity: Challenges with infrastructure and ROI accountability persisted, as predicted. HIT

Collaborative Budgets: Co-funded campaigns grew in popularity, but execution challenges limited their scale. PARTIAL HIT

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4. Connected TV (CTV)

Programmatic Expansion: More broadcasters enabled programmatic ad buying, increasing inventory availability. HIT

Creative Innovation: AI-driven personalization began to emerge in CTV, enabling advertisers to deliver more relevant and engaging content to viewers. PARTIAL HIT

Control Battles: Traditional media agencies faced increasing pressure from tech-driven players, as expected. HIT

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5. Synthetic Data

Campaign Testing: Adoption of synthetic data for campaign testing was limited to large enterprises and experimental use cases, falling short of broad impact. MISS

AI Training: Synthetic data became more common in training AI models for personalization and segmentation, helping organizations overcome data scarcity challenges. PARTIAL HIT

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6. AI-Powered Innovation

Customer Interaction: AI-powered virtual assistants and chatbots improved customer experiences, but widespread consumer preference for AI over human support remained elusive. PARTIAL HIT

Immersive Marketing: Some brands adopted AI tools to create AR/VR experiences, but the technology's high cost and limited audience penetration kept these efforts niche. MISS

Predictive Tools: Early adoption of predictive AI tools for media planning and campaign optimization hinted at the transformative potential of these technologies. HIT

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7. Market Dynamics

Big Tech Dominance: Google, Meta, and Amazon strengthened their market positions, benefiting from their superior measurement capabilities and first-party data. HIT

Independent Ad Tech Struggles: Independent ad tech companies faced significant challenges, with many struggling to compete against the scale and resources of Big Tech. HIT

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Scorecard Summary

HITS: 9

PARTIAL HITS: 5

MISSES: 4