Revolution Aero 2018 – Event review and the realities of Urban Air Mobility?

So despite a lack of ‘Dreams’ on my Dreamliner return to the UK, I am now back in the office contemplating the first ‘Revolution Aero’ conference held on Monday and Tuesday in San Francisco, California.

Returning to the Bay Area is always a pleasure for me personally and the chance to speak at such an important and exciting event in my old home town was an honour and a pleasure. I must first congratulate Alasdair and Louisa Whyte, Hannah and the organising team of www.Revolution.Aero , they put on a world class event for this exciting new sector!

So why was this event so important?

This event combined news about business aviation, supersonic flight, E-VTOLS, Electric Flight, Autonmous flight and Drone operations, along with other new ideas and concepts surrounding aerospace innovation. Unsurprisingly however, it was Regional and Urban Air Mobility which took centre stage alongside discussions surrounding business jet brokerage.

Earlier this year, people attended the ‘UBER’ Elevate conference in its second sitting. This has become the benchmark for Urban Air Mobility hype cycle over the last two years and this year’s event saw a shift to more realistic notions on Air Taxi services and the companies able to deliver those services, when compared to the previous year.

I would suggest that the team at UBER who attended and spoke at Revolution Aero earlier this week, saw a slightly different perspective to that which they have been proposing from a sector that they may have been largely protected from to date within Silicon Valley.

I may also suggest that this was possibly the first conference where the traditional aerospace sector, began to merge with the new ‘pioneers’ and one or two reality blows were dealt, to the Silicon Valley hype machine.

Don’t get me wrong… I absolutely love the ‘Can do’ attitude of Silicon Valley. It is without question, shining a fantastically bright light on an exciting new sector we at Faradair have been so passionate about since 2014 and earlier…

However one quote stood out on the second day of the conference more than any other –

“UBER is bat shit crazy with its forecasts”

As you can imagine, this caused quite the ripple around the room and it was possible that this may have been the first time that UBER was involved in a conference where voices were not quite in the alignment they would hope for, especially from those whom they wish to educate.

So let’s review what was discussed….

The two days of this conference covered a range of interesting, inspiring and genuinely motivational presentations, with a couple of presenters getting so pumped up, you would have been forgiven for thinking you could simply buy an E-VTOL next week and begin AirTaxi operations not that far into the future.

Awesome… so far, so good!

However it was during the coffee breaks where the old sages of the aerospace market gathered to discuss that which they heard and a common theme began to appear…

“Sounds great… looks awesome, I am excited…. But…..”

The ‘BUT’ was the ‘Sword of Damocles’ ready to swing and take a slice off of the visions and dreams being presented as near to completion. 

Was it from a ‘naysayer’ perspective? Absolutely not… it was from the perspective of aerospace experience and reason, that understands the simple fact that a ‘Tesla style company’ cannot simply come into aerospace and transform the sector due to the fact that unlike the automotive sector, where a car can be constructed to a basic safe standard and run on the public road without regulation, the aerospace market is not so simple.

The aerospace sector has regulators who are there primarily for one reason – ‘safety’

Not one of them around the world wants to see their name on a certificate at a crash site, similar to that where autonomous innovation identified a human being as being a low threat paper bag a few months ago in Phoenix, Arizona.

They do not care about company ambition, wants, desires, profit or reason. They are there to ensure that the skies above us are controlled and shared in a safe and constructive manner, the last bastion if you will of untapped global transportation exploitation.

As a result, the slightly naïve perspective that because the FAA, or the CAA or EASA are sympathetic to innovation and show a willingness to talk, the actual act of regulation and the creation of regulations that serve the interests of the global population, may not be strictly aligned with the ambitions of those within the new Urban Air Mobility sector.

Whilst they may certify you to fly your aircraft around in test flight status, the certification for passenger carrying operations is going to take a 'LOT' longer than many would have you believe.

The delusion that E-VTOL passenger operations would be in effect by 2023 were roundly discredited during the numerous polls on screen and by those with actual meaningful experience from within the commercial aviation, aerospace and UAV sectors. It also showed the importance of hybrid solutions and even non-battery use operations altogether, in the early days.

This may have been an eye opening event for many of the tech investors in the room, especially coming off the back of news surrounding the demise of ‘Airware’ the commercial drone operator, despite over $100 million in investment capital.

Some discussed the ‘Gartner Hype Cycle’ for the commercial drone sector that occurred roughly five years ago and they began to ask the question as to whether we have reached peak ‘hype’ surrounding E-VTOL and Urban Air Mobility?

The answer shown in polls suggested a resounding ‘NO’… possibly due to the fact that in just over two years, we have seen roughly ten credible E-VTOL projects, now being crowded by over 120 projects globally, with each of them promising AirTaxi services in just a few years and each of them having fancy corporate videos with background music hiding the true noise factor of their vehicles….

Which brings me to my next point…. ‘Noise’.

Finally, the sector is waking up to the fact that anyone can make an E-VTOL.

In the UK the first E-VTOL flights were completed by the likes of Malloy Aeronautics back in 2016 and just this year we have seen International videos of individuals making their own personal E-VTOL’s including one brave chap flying a bathtub with four quadcopter motors and a radio control unit to fly it.

Yes the electric motor has opened an opportunity for fantastic ‘Wright Brothers’ style vehicles that push the boundaries and look fantastic, but reality is finally dawning around a few core issues and one of them is noise.

It is something we at Faradair® have been so vocal about for the last four years. ‘Noise’ is one of the greatest challenges of this sector and if people think that the ‘convenience’ factor will drown out the voices of noise objection by those directly affected by this new form of air travel… they are wildly mistaken.

The fact is; helicopters generate the most noise from their rotors, not their engines. Small rotors spinning fast, to generate vertical lift, create a huge amount of noise and at frequencies that will result in noise abatement order complaints within hours, not weeks. If some of the vehicles demonstrated to date are ever allowed to fly with a full passenger load anywhere near an Urban environment (see the one EHang video where noise has been allowed) then we will see the true power of the populace, over the ambitions of the sector.

I even took time during my panel discussion to highlight the genuinely ‘anti-air’ feeling within the current Mayoral office in London, with legislation soon to be adopted that could ban any future rotorcraft operations over one of the most important capitals of the world!

Yet still, we are seeing more people jumping on the bandwagon and as a result, it is pushing many to begin tests in the parts of the world that will ‘allow it’ rather than consider the ramification of their actions. I.e. if the public see lots of videos of early prototypes flying, creating large amounts of noise, this will damage the public perception, long before quiet rotor technology has had chance to prove its viability in the coming years.

So why are they doing this? To be first to market? The old Silicon Valley mantra? Or to satisfy their investors that the claims they made to attract money, were not strictly bonkers?

It was pointed out during the conference that the previous ‘Very Light Jet’ gold rush, resulted in more aircraft programme bankruptcies and closures than you could shake a stick at and the greatest success was probably enjoyed by the last incumbent to the space - the Cirrus Vision Jet.

But when people simply begin throwing assets into the sky, we run the risk of another Gartner Hype Cycle for Urban Air Mobility. Possibly even worse, should any of these aircraft suffer failures similar to recent crashes involving electric motors and batteries, we may see impact that could last 20 or 30 years. Therefore a grain of salt and notes of caution were introduced to key players and consultants who have been predicting the Air Mobility revolution is here, right now!

During the conference, it was highlighted by experienced helicopter operators that certification was not only extremely expensive under current certification rules (excluding proposed new certification regs) but also, extremely time intensive. I.e. take your forecasted cost and double it, take your time expectation and treble it for new technologies.

Why is this important to understand?

Many of the new Urban Air Mobility vehicles proposed, not only combine new airframes, but new propulsion methods, new materials, new powered electronics, new controllers, new safety features, new methods of operation… some are even calling for a new class of pilot, because flying is so easy now!!!

Any one of these items will require at best, for an existing aerospace manufacturer with all the DOA approvals and other certifications of competence – a likely minimum of five years and more likely ten years to certify that new component. Combine them all into a brand new vehicle type and the certification process for ‘passenger operations’ is likely to be nearer 10 years, as confirmed by members of NASA and other key bodies at the conference.

So what? We know that right????

Judging by some expecting ‘car’ levels of transportation mile costs within five years, it would appear that many have not grasped the scale of enormity of the elephant in the room.

This is without discussing the pilot shortage, the air management and ATM/UTM interaction requirements, in order to deliver a viable, cost effective service. Even Zunum Aero who have been lauded within the US and afar as being able to deliver fully electric passenger flight, were forced to acknowledge that full electric passenger flight was not likely before 2030 and are now following the Faradair® model proposed back in 2014 for hybrid flight.

Things like pilot salaries, Part 121 and 135 operational requirements, union input, cockpit safety in passenger operations, were just some of the issues that have a long runway ahead, in order to introduce a genuine revolution to this sector.

So hot was the debate over E-VTOLS and UAM that the Supersonic Business Jet discussions seemed almost guaranteed and mundane in comparison…and that in itself, tells an interesting story here.

(The Aerion does look good though... slightly F104 Starfighter-ish)

The conference closed with a panel that I had the great pleasure to be a part of, discussing how you make money from these operations and regulations, certification and the many hurdles that must be considered. In essence we were able to capture the points raised throughout the conference, to encapsulate the reality that counters the pipedream.

So what is the reality?

The ability to put an electric motor air vehicle into the sky is not rocket science. Every man/woman and bathtub proves that.

The ability to keep that vertical thrust air vehicle to less than 70db at take-off and ideally less than 60db is the real challenge, combined with an economic model that makes any service viable. There is no doubt that once an air vehicle can break the 60db noise level at take-off and in-flight operation then the market opportunity for that vehicle is genuinely enormous, at which point operational cost economics come into play.

This is also the reason why we at Faradair®, have adjusted our product line-up this year to include a turboprop powered variant of the BEHA aircraft (BEHA-M1). This aircraft will aim to be 30+% quieter than a Pilatus PC12 to operate (60db or less), carrying a significantly heavier payload capability. This aircraft could be biofuel powered, enabling a faster certification process and a genuine chance of ‘AirTaxi’ operations by 2023 with an extreme STOL aircraft.

This aircraft will then be followed up by a hybridised version (BEHA_H1) to be certificated for passenger operations by 2025 and then the fully electric BEHA_E1, certified for operations before 2030. We also have the firefighting BEHA_M1AT cargo/logistics heavy lift drone, capable of carrying several tonnes of fire retardant, announced just a few weeks ago, yet already subject to order interest.

We at Faradair® know we can deliver this, which is possibly why the audience voted so highly for us during a closing ‘pitching event’ where we as the British contender, took on several other US and International start-ups but just missed out on the VC vote, coming second to a local VTOL cargo drone company.

We won the love of the crowd but the local VC’s unsurprisingly went for Elroy Air, who have a great pair of guys running that company and I am sure that Faradair and Elroy will work together in mutual technologies and interests in the near future.

In conclusion… it was a very positive event overall and I have not even touched on the extensive business jet charter operation discussions and it is certain that the revolution in aerospace is coming, it is now becoming clearer as to when that might actually be and which vehicles are most likely to deliver passenger operations first.

The UAM presentations continued for me personally into the next day, when I had the great pleasure of hosting my first US University lecture at the prestigious UC Berkeley campus on Wednesday, to discuss the conference and Urban Air Mobility as an exciting new sector to students.

Did Revolution Aero spell out the exciting future of aerospace?

Yes I think it did...

Did the event highlight the reality of this sector to those who are setting unrealistic expectations of timelines, both from a passenger operation and investment return perspective….

Without doubt!

Did it fire me up personally to continue to lead the charge into Regional and Urban Air Mobility as a result…..

Without question! Onward and Upwards!!

By

Neil Cloughley

Managing Director - Faradair Aerospace Limited

Info @ faradair.com

Follow us via social media, look for Faradair® and find out more information about us at www.faradair.com