"Renzi ti voglio bene"

According to Wolfgang Muenchau of the Financial Times (Oct 20, 2018),

The centre-right European People’s party will probably still emerge as the largest faction in the European Parliament. But it may not be in a position any longer to form effective coalitions (with the social democrats) . The looming end of the grand coalition reflex, in Berlin and Brussels, could in theory make European politics more diverse. But in a system that requires qualified majorities to get anything done, it could equally end up causing gridlock.

According to POLITICO, the Online journal on European Affairs, (where the picture of Renzi is borrowed, with the caption):

Since World War II, social democracy has stood, along with the center right, as one of the twin pillars of European democracy. Its decline, accompanied by the sharp rise of populists on both the right and left, will likely leave the Continent’s politics neither stable nor predictable.

The center left may survive in some form, but it will likely be shadow of itself. France’s Socialist Party, which won just 6.4 percent in the parliamentary election last year, and Greece’s Pasok, which last polled at just over 6 percent, offer hints of what may lie in store.

In some countries, including Germany, social democracy’s demise could lead to de facto one-party rule, with one dominant party in the center fending off a smattering of smaller ones on the fringes.

The marginalization of social democracy would also have profound repercussions for the EU and its institutions, where the two largest parties have together called the shots for decades in a perpetual, if unofficial, grand coalition.

I would like to raise two questions, one major, one minor. The minor question is : why did Renzi kill European Social Democracy ?

My short answer is Renzi blackmailed the PD as Tony Blair did with the Labour Party 15 years before: a monstruous self confidence enabled both men to take their parties hostage during a prolonged identity crisis. And a substantial opportunism enabled them to act with open disdain for the historic organizations they were responsible for. It is not by chance if both men sink their religious roots in the vicinity of Opus Dei.

The major question is: How distant is the italian social democracy today from Berlinguer ? would Roberto Benigni make a movie by the title "Renzi I love you " ? And the answer is again quite short. There are countries and institutions where the quality of leadership has deteriorated past the point of no return. They have sunk into improvisation. Improvisation is the noble art of clowns, cafe' entertainers, street actors, and populists.

The aims and means of Social Democracy are not dead. Its role in the European grand coalition is far from over. But for those marginalized countries where populism has prevailed there is no short way-out. A new leadership will need to start from far away, and build its new organizations for the long run. Leaders aiming at recovering the right to represent the European peoples, and overcome the present gridlock, will have to build institutions capable of generating serious analyses, a reliable consensus process, leading to resilient loyalty, and transparent selection criteria. Which is the exact opposite of improvisation. Improvisation has killed Social Democracy.