Russia: Nuclear Proliferation
Introduction
Some analysts believe Russia is the only nation that poses an existential threat to the United States. Russia’s nuclear stockpile was estimated to be approximately 4,490 in total (Kristensen and Korda 2019). President Vladimir Putin reported that advanced equipment made up 82 percent of Russia’s nuclear arsenal (Kristensen and Korda 2020). Gilbert Doctorow, Ph.D. and post-doctoral fellow in Russian history argued that Russia has more nuclear capability and modern weaponry than the United States (Abelow 2022). Congress expressed particular concern over Russia’s nuclear doctrine and nuclear modernization programs. Congress held hearings on Russia’s lack of compliance with nuclear arms control agreements (Congressional Research Service 2022).
This article reviews key studies on Russia’s nuclear proliferation. The author aims for readers to gain a clearer understanding of the significant issues related to Russia’s nuclear proliferation. The selected articles, documents, and books have been chosen for their relevance and timeliness.
Strategic Theory
In his book Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons, Joseph Cirincione highlights five reasons for nuclear proliferation: 1) Nuclear weapons guarantee security against rivals. 2) They provide international prestige. 3) Domestic politics and interests drive pursuit. 4) Technological progress compels leaders toward nuclear development. 5) Economic factors contribute. However, Cirincione does not address Russia’s nuclear strategy or the intelligence community’s response (Cirincione 2007).
Nuno Monteiro and Alexandre Debs argue in The Strategic Logic of Nuclear Proliferation that security concerns drive nations toward developing nuclear capabilities. A link between power dynamics and nuclear proliferation was involved. They analyzed the Soviet Union’s 1949 nuclear status, which ended the U.S. monopoly and led to competitive tensions. The U.S. knew of Soviet efforts but lacked clear intelligence on facility locations. Proposed counter-proliferation measures included aerial bombardment, but intelligence gaps risked targeting unconfirmed sites. The U.S. hesitated to escalate the conflict (Monteiro and Debs 2014).
Stephen Blank argues that Russia’s nuclear weapons act as a deterrent. In Nuclear Weapons in Russia’s War Against Ukraine, Blank notes that Russia’s information campaign portrays the U.S. as a bully, blurring the lines between offensive and defensive strategies. Blank points out Russia’s Arctic military presence was an infringement on U.S. interests. He concludes that Russia merges deterrence with coercion (Blank 2022).
Russia’s Nuclear Strategy
Analysts disagree on why Russia would first use nuclear weapons. In Russian Nuclear Forces 2019, Hans Kristensen and Matt Korda outlined Russia’s nuclear capabilities and strategy. Some suggest nuclear use aims to de-escalate conflicts favorably for Russia, termed escalating to de-escalate. Kristensen and Korda reject this, citing Gen. John Hyten, who claimed Russia’s arsenal is intended to achieve victory rather than de-escalate. They also referenced President Putin’s assertion that Russia’s doctrine prohibits pre-emptive strikes, emphasizing retaliatory responses. Ultimately, they concluded that Russia likely views nuclear weapons as a response to perceived existential threats.
The Nation’s Position
The 2018 Nuclear Posture Review from the Office of the Secretary of Defense indicated that the Nation was under nuclear threat. The report pointed out Russia’s aggressive nuclear behavior and its considerable advantages in nuclear proliferation. It recommended that nuclear command and control systems be prepared to deter these threats. Additionally, it emphasized the necessity for enhanced intelligence collection and prevention efforts. The Nation would improve defenses against cyber-attacks, space threats, tactical warnings, attack assessments, command communications, and advanced technologies relevant to nuclear issues. The report noted a decrease in nuclear funding by the Department of Defense since 1962 while advocating for increased spending in nuclear-related areas. It also recommended enhancing information sharing to detect and intercept nuclear materials. Furthermore, the Nation would expand its network of radiation detection technologies, which is estimated to be around 57,000 units operating globally (Nuclear Posture Review 2018).
Congress and Nuclear Strategy
In Congress and U.S. Nuclear Weapons, Amy Woolf provided a history of the Nation’s nuclear oversight. Woolf suggested that most members of Congress considered nuclear policy a relatively low priority. The article confirmed that nuclear priorities diminished after the Cold War. In the 1990s, the Nation’s security was dominated by the invasion of Kuwait, the subsequent invasion of Iraq, and the collapse of the Soviet Union. There was an influx of terrorism concerns with the bombing of the World Trade Center, the embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, the USS Cole in 2000, and then the Twin Towers in 2001. This occurred just a few months before the Bush administration released the Nuclear Posture Review. As a result, most members of Congress prioritized terrorism (Woolf 2007).
Nuclear Threat and Cyber Warfare
In The Russia Trap: How Our Shadow War with Russia Could Spiral into Nuclear Catastrophe, George Bebee proposed that the United States and Russia were engaged in an undeclared conflict. He characterized this scenario as two nations vying for international strategic leverage. The arsenal in this conflict includes cyber sabotage, espionage, and influence. Bebee highlighted that nuclear command systems are now interconnected with the cyber realm, concluding that cyber infiltration could potentially trigger a nuclear war (Bebee 2020). Mariana Budjeryn offered a similar perspective, noting that radar systems could be manipulated to falsely indicate a nuclear launch. In Distressing A System In Distress: Global Nuclear Order and Russia’s War Against Ukraine, Budjeryn referenced numerous nuclear-related threats, with analysts identifying over 20 nuclear signals from Russia in 2022 (Budjeryn 2022).
Stephen Blank, in How Ukraine Reveals Russian Nuclear Strategy, argued that while Putin may be unlikely to use nuclear weapons, he expressed concern regarding Putin’s subordinates, who persistently issue nuclear threats. Blank viewed Russia’s nuclear proliferation in the Arctic and Belarus as aggressive moves, concluding that these threats serve to intimidate and deter and suggesting that Russia’s threshold for nuclear engagement is lower than many analysts believe (Blank 2023). In The Nuclear Crisis Management and Deterrence: America, Russia, and The Shadow of Cyber War, Stephen Cimbala elaborated on the strategic relationship between nuclear proliferation and cyberwarfare. He defined cyberwarfare as sophisticated information weaponry and pointed out that the United States and Russia together control over 90 percent of the world’s nuclear arsenal while both possess advanced offensive and defensive cyber-war capabilities. Cimbala argued that nuclear weapons are integrated into command, computing, and surveillance systems, recommending that computer systems be safeguarded against espionage. He concluded that the United States excels in advanced information technology and conventional military strength, while Russia heavily depends on nuclear arms to offset its comparative non-nuclear weaknesses (Cimbala 2017).
Annual Threat Assessments
The 2023 Annual Threat Assessment from the Office of The Director of National Intelligence highlights security risks stemming from nuclear proliferation and conflict. The ongoing Ukraine war has increased Russia's reliance on nuclear, cyber, and space capabilities, with the report confirming Russia's position as having the largest and most advanced nuclear arsenal. Furthermore, Russia continues to upgrade and expand these capabilities (Office of The Director of National Intelligence 2023). In contrast to the 2022 assessment, which did not emphasize nuclear proliferation as much, the 2023 report categorically describes Russia as a nuclear threat (Office of The Director of National Intelligence 2022). Additionally, the 2021 assessment lacked a dedicated section on nuclear proliferation but was consistent with findings from the 2022 and 2023 reports regarding Russia’s nuclear capabilities (Office Of The Director Of National Intelligence 2021).
The three Annual Threat Assessments demonstrated the intelligence community’s growing concern over Russia’s nuclear proliferation. However, the reports did not describe nuclear intelligence operations.
Nuclear Monitoring and Verification
Nuclear monitoring and verification have been national priorities. An independent review by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2020) assessed the nation's nuclear detection, focusing on the fiscal year 2020. The findings revealed advancements in Russia's nuclear delivery systems, including hypersonic missiles, nuclear-autonomous torpedoes, and cruise missiles, which challenged existing nuclear detection systems. Additionally, small-scale nuclear material complicated radar detection and signature readings. The report indicated that warhead verification is both distinct and challenging, recommending that nuclear-related monitoring be prioritized (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2020).
The Department of Defense Science Board (2014) shared similar concerns about nuclear monitoring and verification capabilities in the nation. They assessed that current systems are insufficient and highlighted the need for technological advancements in detection methods. Significant challenges involved small, undetectable fissile materials and covert operations testing below detectable limits. The report stressed that enhancing monitoring should be a national priority, requiring ongoing and sophisticated nuclear surveillance systems to safeguard national security (Defense Science Board, 2014).
Findings
Key findings drawn from the literature included the Nation’s desire to once again prioritize nuclear security issues. Congress confirmed Russia posed a challenge to the United States. Congress expressed particular concern over Russia’s nuclear doctrine and nuclear modernization programs (Congressional Research Service 2022). Russia’s intent was to lead the world in nuclear weaponry (Kristensen and Korda 2020). Russia’s information war described the U.S. as an intimidator (Bank 2022). Russia threatened the use of nuclear weapons. Moscow’s nuclear proliferation appeared to have eroded the distinction between offense and defense (Kristensen and Korda 2019). Russia had more nuclear bombs than the United States (Abelow 2022). The United States nuclear apparatus remained partially dormant post-1991. Congress was partially uninformed of Russia’s growing nuclear threat. Non-nuclear issues were prioritized (Woolf 2007). Resource prioritization reduced nuclear intelligence funding. Resource allocation hindered nuclear innovation and defense (Nuclear Posture Review 2018). The literature indicated nuclear weapons were incorporated into systems of command, computer processing units, and surveillance. Technological infiltration, unintentional or intentional, may disrupt security systems (Cimbala 2017). In addition, nuclear proliferation coupled with conflict posed a security risk. Russia’s perception of Ukraine as an existential threat endangered nuclear use. Russia’s missile innovation challenged the Nation’s nuclear detection systems. Present detecting technologies required development in order to thwart any preemptive attacks (Defense Science Board 2014).
Since the existing literature does not fully answer the research question, the author plans to further investigate the Nation’s historical nuclear monitoring and verification methods. The author believes that examining history can clarify future practices (Costanza, Graumlich, Steffen, and Custance 2007). By assessing recent history, the author aims to draw analogies to contemporary intelligence strategies. Additionally, the author will explore Treaties, National Strategy, MASINT, and Cyberwarfare to understand current intelligence operations.
Treaties
On April 8, 2010, the U.S. and Russia signed the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, which succeeded the previous agreement that expired on December 5, 2009. This treaty required both nations to cut their deployed nuclear arsenals to 1,550 warheads, which they accomplished. However, inactive nuclear warheads remained in reserve. Additionally, the treaty did not prohibit nuclear modernization or the development of certain ballistic missiles. Russia proceeded to modernize and increase its short-range nonstrategic nuclear weapons, which are not restricted by the treaty. In February 2019, General John Hyten affirmed that the treaty offered transparency regarding Russia’s nuclear capabilities but warned that the advancements in Russian nuclear weapons could be a threat. On January 21, 2021, a five-year extension was agreed upon, set to expire on February 5, 2026. This treaty has significant intelligence implications (Congressional Research Service). The most recent New START data exchange on September 1, 2022, reported Russia with 1,549 deployed warheads assigned to 540 strategic launchers (Department of State 2022).
The treaty shed light on Russia’s nuclear proliferation, establishing verifiable nuclear limits. It allowed for data exchanges and onsite inspections, empowering the intelligence community to accurately tally the number of warheads compared to calculations based on missile tests, signatures, and radar data. The agreement facilitated tracking through identification numbers, which provided weapon confirmations for inspectors. Political collaboration was essential for the treaty’s efficacy, with a commitment to not disrupt the verification process. Nevertheless, the situation in Ukraine fostered increasing distrust. Without bilateral arms control, an era of unpredictability loomed ahead, necessitating improved intelligence collection from the intelligence community (Rogers, Morda, and Kristensen 2022).
By March 3, 2022, the United States and Russia had conducted 328 on-site inspections and exchanged 23,369 notifications (State Department 2022). However, the treaty's success relied heavily on national cooperation. In February 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the suspension of the New START treaty (Financieras 2023), citing grievances with NATO. Russia claimed the United States was obstructing Russian scientists from accessing its nuclear facilities. Consequently, in March 2023, Russia failed to provide its nuclear data to the United States as required by the treaty (Kristensen, Korda, and Reynolds 2023). If Russia were to withdraw completely, or if the agreement were to lapse, both nations would suffer a decline in nuclear transparency, leading to an intelligence gap. Russia could potentially deploy numerous undeclared nuclear warheads (Kristensen and Korda 2022). A decrease in communication raised the risk of misinterpretation, which could exacerbate the threat of nuclear proliferation (Von Hippel 2023).
The details mentioned suggest that diplomacy served as a nuclear deterrent and played a role in intelligence-gathering processes. It facilitated various intelligence operations, and nuclear treaties were employed by the intelligence community, which gathered critical nuclear materials. The Nation has verified and recorded Russia’s nuclear capabilities. Strategic operations were grounded in firsthand experiences, with estimates indicating that intelligence officers likely visited several of Russia’s nuclear sites, often disguised to maintain their anonymity. Furthermore, they were probably trained in politically sensitive communication to show their dedication to the New Start Treaty. Additionally, there are suspicions that Russia did not disclose the entirety of its nuclear arsenal. Competitive warfare relies greatly on secrecy and surprise (Tsu 2014). With Russia’s advancements in technology, monitoring treaties and gathering intelligence may be hindered by limited inventories and fissile materials, which can be tested below detection limits. Inadequate training and technology could allow such materials to go unnoticed (Defense Science Board 2014). The estimate suggests that the New Start Treaty may lapse without proper commitment, especially amid the ongoing Ukraine crisis, creating a heightened demand for nuclear intelligence gathering. The effectiveness of intelligence could either safeguard or undermine the Nation’s position in global affairs.
National Strategy
USSTARTCOM developed a comprehensive plan to counter nuclear threats. This strategy involved diplomacy, deterrence through weaponry, intelligence gathering, coercion, and cyber operations. A key component of this plan was Oplan 8010-12, which emphasized reconnaissance. The information gathered would be promptly relayed to decision-makers, ensuring communication channels remained open. The strategy also included a six-phase deterrence approach. Actions were guided by the principles of the Law of Armed Conflict (LOAC): military necessity, minimizing unnecessary suffering, proportionality, and distinction. Additionally, Oplan 8010-12 integrated elements of cyber warfare. However, much of the strategy remains classified, and further insights would be speculative (US Strategic Command 2012).
The OPLAN 8010-12 strategy indicates that the Nation contemplated matters related to nuclear deterrence. The diverse nature of the strategy offered various options. Nuclear deterrence during the Cold War was centered on competitive nuclear proliferation. General John Hyten characterized the scope of contemporary nuclear planning as inherently diversified. OPLAN 8010-12 facilitated flexible decision-making (Kristensen and Korda 2022).
Hitherto, the writer estimates that OPLAN 8010-12 is currently deployed. The writer estimates that Russia’s tactical nuclear installations in Belarus require a multifaceted response (Content LLC 2023). The Belarusian nuclear installation would circumvent Ukraine from the North and pose a threat to other NATO nations. Belarus practically borders Kiev. Russia could exploit this geographical advantage. OPLAN 8010-12 gives decision makers a variety of options. Diplomacy does not appear to have worked. The writer suspects the nation will employ stronger measures.
MASINT
Measurement and Signature Intelligence (MASINT) comprised various intelligence gathering techniques. MASINT is characterized by the collection of information based on the attributes of a target. Its collection methods involved nuclear monitoring systems which include procedures for detecting X-rays, gamma rays, and neutrons. This capability was utilized to monitor nuclear proliferation. Additionally, MASINT tracked acoustic signals from submarines, seismic activities from nuclear tests, missile launches, the size of aircraft, and explosives. MASINT capable of detecting nuclear events through land, sea, air, and space (Richelson 2015).
In 2003, Russia was estimated to possess 4,489 nuclear warheads, with 1,674 of them deployed. Of these, around 834 were land-based, 640 were sea-based, and 200 were air-based. Additionally, 999 nuclear warheads were kept in storage. Furthermore, Russia allocated nuclear warheads to long-range missiles (Kristensen, Korda, and Reynolds 2023).
In September 2021, China allegedly tested a hypersonic missile utilizing a space-based Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (Cimbala and Lowther 2022). This FOBS capability offers space-based attack alternatives, creating a challenge for MASINT detectability. The author believes that MASINT satellites would also face difficulties due to electromagnetic weapons, which could incapacitate surveillance systems. A magnetic assault would strain the nation’s detection infrastructure, necessitating the development of new intelligence technologies. Furthermore, the Integrated Tactical Warning and Attack Assessment (ITW/AA) would be at risk, as it is integral to the nation’s missile warning framework. The ITW/AA offers decision-makers precise ballistic missile evaluations, confirming whether satellite-detected launches pose a threat to the country. Additionally, the ITW/AA is a vital part of the nation’s Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications system. Given their interconnected nature, these factors create a considerable security threat (Department of Defense 2016).
The writer suggests that China is likely to share FOBS information with Russia, using this leverage in negotiations. He believes that China's ambitions depend on access to Russia’s resources. Consequently, there may be a trade of FOBS or related technologies. The writer anticipates that Russia and China will emerge as allies in a potential large-scale conflict, with China providing support to Russia through FOBS or electromagnetic weapons. Furthermore, he indicates that Russia is actively advancing its FOBS technology, with plans to attach nuclear warheads to these systems, creating a significant MASINT challenge.
The previous information suggests that the Nation actively employs MASINT to address nuclear proliferation. The author predicts that Space-Based Intelligence Systems will represent the future (Cimbala and Lowther 2022).
Cyber Technology
In 2007, Russia was reported to have carried out a cyberattack on Estonia, marking a significant moment in the evolution of modern warfare where digital tactics became prominent (Herzog 2017). This incident led Russia to establish specialized cyberwarfare units, highlighting the vulnerability of defense systems and the potential risks of disabling critical infrastructure, including nuclear monitoring systems (Ramana and Kurando 2019).
Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces operated ballistic missiles, with a command center designed to monitor and control systems dependent on computers. The nuclear systems were vulnerable to cyberattacks, with Konstantin Kosachev estimating that thirty percent came from the U.S. Allegedly, the U.S. penetrated Russia’s electric grid, communications, and command systems. If true, this indicated the U.S. utilized cyberwarfare, with evidence suggesting the NSA intercepted sensitive Russian nuclear data (Ramana and Kurando 2019).
The details previously mentioned show that the Department of Defense used cyber technology for nuclear purposes. Historically, the U.S. modified computer chips that were incorporated into Soviet hardware (CIA 1996). However, much of the information concerning cyberwarfare remains classified (Lin 2016). From these findings, the author concludes that the U.S. has actively deployed cyber technology against Russia. The author believes that U.S. cyber technology could potentially disrupt Russia’s nuclear networks. Additionally, the author notes that the intelligence community has actively utilized cyber technology for nuclear detection. The author emphasizes the need for further research.
Conclusion
This report provides a succinct overview of the nation’s intelligence strategy concerning Russia’s nuclear proliferation. It evaluates relevant articles to determine their importance to the research question. The topics examined include Strategic Theory, Russia’s Nuclear Strategy, the nation’s stance, Congressional actions, Nuclear Threats and Cyberwarfare, Annual Threat Assessments, and Nuclear Monitoring and Detection. The author concluded that the articles reviewed inadequately addressed the research question. As a result, the author also explored additional topics related to nuclear intelligence, such as Treaties, National Strategy, MASINT, and Cyber Technology, offering a brief overview of these areas. The aim was to assess the relevance of these subjects and highlight key findings. These findings showed that Treaties were used for intelligence gathering, a comprehensive nuclear deterrence strategy known as OPLAN 8010-12 is part of the current national strategy, MASINT technology helps bridge intelligence gaps but faces threats from nuclear advancements, and Cyber technology is used to gather information or disrupt nuclear development and communication.
The report’s strategy involved research exploration, literature review, data collection, analysis, and analogical deduction. The author compared relevant topics and historical trends. Given the clandestine nature of nuclear collection practices, the author suggested that the current nuclear strategy could be inferred from recent intelligence operations. Due to the length of the topics, the report narrowed its focus to four key subjects discussed below.
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The report’s results revealed four details: Treaties, National Strategy, MASINT, and Cyber Technology.
Treaties represent both current and future opportunities for nuclear intelligence. The New Start Treaty is significant for collecting nuclear intelligence data, appearing to remain partially intact despite Russia's threats to suspend it. Given the ongoing situation in Eastern Europe, the writer suspects the New Start Treaty will not persist without the establishment of peace. National nuclear strategies include OPLAN 8010-12, which offers a range of responses to nuclear developments that involve monitoring, detection, and threat assessment. OPLAN encompasses mechanisms that span various options and levels of government. The specifics related to OPLAN are classified. According to the research, the writer believes that OPLAN is currently being utilized in response to Russia in light of the Ukraine conflict and anticipates that it will be expanded to address issues surrounding Belarussian nuclear proliferation.
MASINT technology needs enhancement to effectively tackle current and anticipated nuclear-related technologies. At present, fissile-related nuclear technologies could remain undetected. Furthermore, the rise of Fractional Orbital Bombardment Systems presents a significant security concern, with nuclear missiles potentially being deployed aboard FOBS. Additionally, electromagnetic systems could disrupt MASINT satellite readings, putting the nation's detection and monitoring systems at risk. Therefore, prioritizing the development of MASINT is essential to address national security challenges.
Cyber technology was deployed to disrupt international communities. Russia established a specialized cyber unit. The nation’s nuclear command and control systems could be compromised. There are indications that the U.S. utilized cyber technology for nuclear intelligence. The author estimates that cyber technology could be employed to deactivate, nullify, or sabotage Russian nuclear systems as necessary.
The author recommends that researchers gather, evaluate, and expand on related subjects. By embracing innovation, sincerity, and constructive feedback, they can contribute to strengthening national security.
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