Russia-Ukraine War – Causes, future options and negotiated neutral peace deal option

The Ukraine-Russia conflict is a state of war that began in 2014 after Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine and supported a separatist rebellion in Donbas. The conflict has its roots in the negotiations between the Soviet Union and the U.S. at the end of the Cold War and the subsequent expansion of NATO. In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine across a broad front  , launching airstrikes, missile attacks and ground assaults that killed and wounded thousands of civilians and soldiers. The war has also involved naval incidents, cyberwarfare, and heightened political tensions between Russia and the West. The war is still ongoing as of June 2023, with no sign of a peaceful resolution.

The main causes of the conflict are:

- Ukraine's desire to integrate with the European Union and NATO, which Russia sees as a threat to its interests and influence in the region  .

- Russia's fear of losing its naval base in Sevastopol, which is located in Crimea and hosts the Black Sea Fleet.

- Russia's resentment of the 2014 revolution that ousted pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych and brought a pro-Western government to power in Kyiv.

- Russia's ambition to assert its power and prestige on the world stage and challenge the US-led order.

The conflict has had serious consequences for both countries and the international community, such as:

- More than 14,000 deaths and over a million displaced people due to the fighting in Donbas.

- Economic sanctions imposed by the US and the EU on Russia, which have hurt its economy and isolated it diplomatically.

- Increased military tensions and risks of escalation in the region, especially after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

- Damage to the norms and principles of international law and security, such as respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, and human rights.

The future options of Ukraine-Russia conflict are uncertain and depend on various factors, such as the political will of both sides, the involvement of international actors, and the resilience of the Ukrainian people. Here are some possible scenarios for the outcome of the war:

A negotiated peace: This option would require Russia to withdraw its troops and proxies from Ukrainian territory, respect Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and implement the Minsk agreements. Ukraine would have to grant some degree of autonomy to the regions affected by the conflict, ensure the rights of ethnic minorities, and pursue reforms and anti-corruption measures. The international community would have to provide diplomatic, economic, and security assistance to both parties, as well as monitor and enforce the implementation of the peace deal. This option is favored by most Western countries and some moderate voices in Russia and Ukraine, but faces many challenges and obstacles, such as the lack of trust between the parties, the divergent interests of external actors, and the ongoing violence on the ground.

A frozen conflict: This option would entail a continuation of the status quo, with a low-intensity but protracted war between Russia and Ukraine. Russia would maintain its occupation and annexation of parts of Ukraine's territory, while supporting its proxy forces in Donbas. Ukraine would continue to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity, while seeking international support and sanctions against Russia. The international community would remain divided and unable to resolve the conflict diplomatically. This option is favored by some hardliners in Russia and Ukraine, who see no room for compromise or dialogue, but risks further escalation and destabilization of the region.

A total war: This option would involve a full-scale military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, with possible involvement of other countries. Russia would seek to achieve a decisive victory over Ukraine by deploying its superior military force and using nuclear weapons if necessary. Ukraine would resist with all means available, including guerrilla warfare and asymmetric tactics. The international community would face a major crisis and a threat to global security, with potential consequences for NATO, the EU, and other regions. This option is feared by most people in Russia and Ukraine, as well as by the rest of the world, but could be triggered by a miscalculation, a provocation, or an accident.

The Russia-Ukraine war has been raging for more than a year, with no sign of a lasting peace deal. The conflict has claimed thousands of lives, displaced millions of people, and threatened regional and global stability. The international community has been trying to mediate a peaceful resolution, but the efforts have been hampered by the lack of trust and willingness from both sides.

One of the main obstacles to a peace deal is the status of the Ukrainian regions that are under Russian control or influence. Russia demands that Ukraine grant these regions a high degree of autonomy and guarantees that they will not join NATO or the European Union. Ukraine rejects these demands, arguing that they would undermine its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Ukraine also insists that Russia withdraw its troops and weapons from its territory and pay reparations for the damage caused by the invasion.

Since the start of war, several rounds of peace talks have been held, but none have resulted in a lasting ceasefire or a political solution. The main sticking points are the status of the occupied territories, the security guarantees for Ukraine, and the role of international mediators.

Some of the countries that have played or could play a role in facilitating a peace deal are:

Belarus: The first round of peace talks was held in Belarus on 28 February 2022, four days after the start of the invasion. Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko offered to host the negotiations and assured Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy that no Belarusian military assets would be used against Ukraine.

Turkey: The fourth and fifth round of peace talks were held in Istanbul, Turkey, on 10 and 14 March 2022. Turkey has been a vocal supporter of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and has provided military and humanitarian assistance to Kyiv. Turkey also proposed a peace-for-neutrality agreement, which would require Ukraine to renounce its NATO aspirations in exchange for Russia's withdrawal from its territory.

China: China has expressed its willingness to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, as well as to provide economic aid and investment to both sides. China has maintained a neutral stance on the conflict, but has also urged respect for international law and norms. China's involvement could be seen as a way to balance the influence of the United States and Europe in the region.

Germany and France: Germany and France have been leading the diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict since 2014, when they initiated the Normandy Format talks with Russia and Ukraine. The Normandy Format has produced several agreements, such as the Minsk Protocol and the Paris Summit, but they have not been fully implemented or respected by the parties. Germany and France have also imposed sanctions on Russia for its aggression, and have supported Ukraine's reforms and integration with the EU.

United States: The United States has been one of the strongest allies of Ukraine since the outbreak of the conflict, providing political, military, and economic support. The US has also imposed several rounds of sanctions on Russia for its actions, and has urged Moscow to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The US has participated in some of the peace talks as an observer or a facilitator, but has not been directly involved in the negotiations.

Some possible options for a negotiated and neutral peace deal are:

A demilitarized zone along the Russia-Ukraine border, as proposed by an adviser to Ukraine's presidential office. This zone would be between 100-120 km wide and would cover the Russian regions of Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk and Rostov. It would be monitored by an international contingent and would prevent further aggression from either side.

A modified version of the Minsk agreements, which were signed in 2014 and 2015 to end the previous phase of the conflict. These agreements envisaged a ceasefire, a withdrawal of heavy weapons, a restoration of Ukrainian control over its border, a decentralization of power, and local elections in the disputed regions. However, these agreements have been largely unimplemented due to disagreements over their interpretation and implementation.

A new framework for dialogue and cooperation between Ukraine and Russia, based on mutual respect and recognition of each other's interests. This framework could include confidence-building measures, such as prisoner exchanges, humanitarian aid, joint projects, and cultural exchanges. It could also address some of the root causes of the conflict, such as energy security, trade relations, minority rights, and historical grievances.

Note: These views are purely writers own and should be taken as such.