SCAF Chair pleasure

Welcome to the Society for Cost Analysis and Forecasting (SCAF)

I had the pleasure of being the Chair of SCAF for seven years; from the 2012/13 AGM to the 2018/19 AGM. During this time I had the opportunity to introduce:

• SCAF Awards – The Philip Pugh Award had been presented to our prime speaker in the previous years. During my Chairmanship we added: Best Newsletter Article, Best Quality Presentation, Best Technical Presentation, Membership Feedback Award and Service to SCAF. At our Summer event the Chair has the pleasure of encouraging more presentations and awareness of cost analysis and forecasting!
• SCAF Challenge – This is the opportunity for Early Career staff to experience cost analysis and forecasting. From 2012 the committee agreed a challenge and then encouraged the Early Career teams to experience the tasks and present their solution!

I would like to thank the SCAF Committee Members including; Arthur Griffiths, Neil Morrill, Dave Hedley, Dr Sanathanan Rajagopal, Neil Morrill, Cheryl Latimer, David Baggley, Dr Paul Baguley, Dr Paul Wood and Professor Linda Newnes

I hope my presentations since 2007 should be interesting to review and read.

2022 - Better Outcomes from Complex Procurements, SCAF Virtual workshop.

• The monitoring of projects requires a robust baseline from which to start. Project Controls is dependent upon the establishment of a justified and defensible, risk adjusted, resourced schedule regardless if you are using earned value management (EVM) or less formal techniques for control. For in-house resources the quality of the baseline is dependent upon your own maturity regarding cost estimating, risk management and scheduling. However, how do you establish a sound baseline for complex procurements that originate beyond your organisation?
• You want your career remembered for success, to stand out for providing value for money acquisitions and a record of excellence in delivery. However, how do you effectively assess the cost and schedule credibility for multiple tenders quickly and effectively. Traditionally, you plan, prepare and then execute a tender assessment with a large review board with risk, uncertainty and expense. At conclusion, there remains a doubt that the price offered will not escalate and the delivery schedule will not slip.
• This case study will introduce a methodology for assessing the Commercial volume of the tender that is as rigorous as the Technical volume. QinetiQ has been supporting a client with two approaches which have provided tender evaluation and independent cost estimates (ICE) to determine “Should cost”. We have defined scoring criteria, RFP text and assessment logistics. These two capabilities provide confidence that your supply chain decisions will be transparent and benchmarked against average industry, realistic cost and schedule targets.
• The techniques will apply across all domains and businesses.

2021 - Critical National Infrastructure (CNI): the cost of vulnerability, SCAF Virtual workshop.

• Many nations have strategies to protect critical infrastructure and a risk management approach was broadly utilised. Risks could be natural, for example floods and earthquakes, or man-made, for example sabotage or sophisticated attack from new and novel threats such as High Altitude Electrometric Pulse (HEMP), EMP and Cyber.
• CNI includes low cost elements, for example, highways and roads through to high value assets, such as power stations, distribution networks and satellite tracking stations.
• This paper will explore this complex decision space through the identification of the emerging threats to CNI, the countermeasure and protection strategies and finally the cost associated with CNI vulnerability.
• The techniques and cost analysis approach will be applicable to other domains beyond the power generation industry.

2020 - Cost Management at the Portfolio Level: Analysis of Alternatives for the sixth generation of fighter aircraft, The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), London.

• Fed up with being reactive to cost estimating and forecasting requests? Had enough of being last in the queue for time and resources? Dismayed at being consulted at the last minute for an opinion on the cost? Seeking a new approach to cost predictions? Consider the proactive approach!
• Rather than waiting for requests for an estimate at the end of a bid or study it is time to start leading. Cost staff are a value-adding commodity, they have the ability to predict the future; well, almost!
• This paper will explore some of the options and alternatives which as a cost community we should be pursuing. It will examine the programme, procurement and technical options that we should present ahead of the remainder of the engineering and project management scrum. It will examine the big, first order assumptions which we should be considering to ensure that we have a voice and that the cost is considered at the forefront of the decision process.
• As an example the paper will consider the options for a sixth generation fighter capability. It will explore the alternatives from a cost perspective and set a direction for the future direction of travel with regards to the air domination capability. In short, it will set a proactive estimating case study to ensure that the cost community is forward leaning and not the last people to be asked an opinion on the topic. Though based upon an air project the approach will be equally applicable for land, sea and space capabilities.

2018 - Cost Benefit Analysis: What is the Benefit, The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), London

• Before cost benefit analysis (CBA) is conducted there is a need to determine the capability gap. QinetiQ has been working on generating the UK MOD total budget to establish the portfolio picture. This has utilised both micro and macro parametric cost modelling to their best advantage. This paper will explore the cost modelling techniques applied for the in-service capabilities and the future capabilities.
• Establishing the UK defence budget is the first step, after this the real fun begins. We are able to ask question such as; What are the capability gaps? Is the portfolio balanced? How do we consider balance of investment decisions? What are the cost drivers? And many more.
• This paper will use the UK MOD as an exemplar, but the process will be equally applicable to any nation or governments.

2017 - A Programme due diligence case study: Wireless power, The BAWA Centre, Filton, Bristol,

• This case study will explore the QinetiQ approach to Programme due diligence using the idea of wireless power transfer. After the outline of our approach to Programme due diligence, the case study will be explained.
• The presentation will then provide some example techniques used by QinetiQ technical teams to consider the question: is it feasible? Progressing onwards, and assuming the technical assessment is positive, the presentation will review the techniques required to determine: how long will it take? Finally, consideration will be given to the question: what will it cost? A summary will highlight the benefits of engaging QinetiQ in a Programme due diligence study, regardless of the project to be assessed.

2013 – Cost Engineering Health Check (Lite), Report from the November 2012, Identification of Strengths, Weaknesses and Assertions within the Costing Community

• For SCAF what are the weaknesses:

1. What areas are weak in the cost analysis and forecasting community?
2. What workshops can the committee organise to fill any capability gap?

2012 - Cost Engineering Health Check - a limited survey, BAWA Centre, Filton, Bristol

• A paper summarising the findings of a Cost Engineering maturity survey conducted at the SCAF Workshop on 27th November 2012.

2012 - QinetiQ approach to Performance Based Contracting (PBC), BAWA Centre, Filton, Bristol.

• What is a Performance Based Contract (PBC)?
• Introduction to Performance Based Contracting (PBC)
• Goals of a Performance Based Contract
• Methodology for Developing an Effective PBC Framework
• PBC Training
• Conclusion

2011 - OSCAM Presentation, BAWA Centre, Filton, Bristol.

• What is OSCAM?
• What is System Dynamics?
• OSCAM Development
• Using OSCAM
• Applications of OSCAM
• Key Success factors

2011 - A Cost Analysis of Reusable and Disposable Deep Target Attack Weapon Delivery Systems, BAWA Centre, Filton, Bristol.

• MBDA called upon QinetiQ to help them understand the cost differences between using a reusable air vehicle and an expendable air vehicle to deliver deep target attack capability.

2010 - Historical Trend Analysis (HTA) Analysed, BAWA Centre, Filton, Bristol.

• The objective of the study is to stimulate discussion amongst the cost community as to the usage of Historical Trend Analysis (HTA), a common term which is used, but has not matured in many ways.

2009 - Estimating the potential cost benefits of state-of-the-art software engineering methods and tools for onboard, EGSE and simulators, BAWA Centre, Filton, Bristol.

• The objective of this study is to analyse and quantify the potential cost benefits derived from the adoption of modern software engineering methods and tools with respect to ESA’s current situation.